11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[allegro]

Man, this New York Times report about Barr is disturbing.

When Biden wins, I want Barr INDICTED.

And I want Biden to make HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON his Attorney General.

(Evil laugh.)



Edit: I also think that there should be a MASSIVE push to have Bill Barr disbarred. The ABA should remove his law license.

[allegro]

I don't know. To a lot of younger people and folks who have shorter memory spans or just started paying attention, Rand Paul looks like Ralph Nader thanks to the past four years of Trump's overton window shenanigans.

Lolwut

Rand Paul has been kissing Trump’s ass for 4 years.

Ralph Nader is forever in MY memory as the Corvair guy.


I think Hillary Clinton is brilliant. Republicans think Obama is a Muslim monkey from Kenya. I don’t give one fuck what Republicans think. They’re all garbage to me.

[allegro]

Yeah, well, I don’t see Hillary Clinton as “baggage,” personally.

I see her as being railroaded by a bunch of sexist pigs.

Did you see the Hulu Hillary doc?

Bernie and Warren?

Rep. Katie Porter is running circles around both of them. Kamala Harris gets a far more progressive score than Warren OR Sanders. Hell, I think Ilhan Omar is far more progressive than any of them. But, that’s Congress. Which has nothing to do with the Executive or the Administration.

The Republicans are going to be obstructionists for generations. Don’t count on them “working with” anyone.

[allegro]

the whole Clinton family

You mean two people? Who are boiled down to the extreme vilification of one person, namely Hillary?

Because Bill generally gets a pass.

Because there are no other Clintons. It’s not a dynasty, like the Bush family. No W, HW and Jeb. No, Chelsea isn’t in politics. No, the Clintons aren’t the Kennedys. There are two Clintons, but the intense 2-decade hatred of one gets morphed into a village of “Clintons.”

Yeah, check out the documentary.

[allegate]

interesting critique of the latest moves.

I’m honestly spellbound.

Between this and the border news, I have to wonder if he looked at that tepid Tulsa crowd and panicked that his base was dissatisfied with him. But dissolving the ACA, delivering a mandate on Trump, and immigrant caravan panics were the defining issues of 2018, and it resulted in a blue wave election. Adding that on top of the last six months feels like purposeful suicide.

[GulDukat]

What if Trump just gives up and drops out?

Don't think this will happen, but it's worth thinking about.

[versusreality]

huh? dude wants to be president for life, not drop out.

[marodi]

That analyst doesn't know the Orange Moron at all. He will never drop out. He is actively paving the way to his refusal to concede defeat if he loses in November.

You poor ladies and gents are so, so screwed.

[M1ke]

That analyst doesn't know the Orange Moron at all. He will never drop out. He is actively paving the way to his refusal to concede defeat if he loses in November.

You poor ladies and gents are so, so screwed.

I think it's relatively common knowledge that he didn't actually want to be President, he was going to claim a rigged vote against him when he lost and use it to launch Trump TV where he could spout far-right conspiracy theories. He didn't expect to win.

He's lost and confused when he tries to actually run the country, and he doesn't like that part of the job, he just wants the soapbox.

The article talks about Trump leaving the stage, and that absolutely won't happen, but I do believe that he's actively trying to figure out how to hold on to the attention without having the job. If he thinks that he has a play that will allow for that, he'd take it.

[versusreality]

I don't know...he will automatically get attention if he's not in the office. He's Trump.

He wants the power, not the responsibilities, of being a president, it seems.

[Wretchedest]

The thing about "trump refusing to leave office"

First all, in the event that a fair election passes and Joe Biden wins, Trump *will* fight back and refuse to leave.

But most importantly, one does not to be physically *in* the white house to be president lol

[allegate]

don't get complacent, keep it up.

[Wretchedest]

Ok, people keep coming back to that but somehow never remark on the broader accuracy of polls, recently, and the notion that if polls were just soooo irrelevant, nobody would pay for them or care about them.

So yes, once, 4 years ago, polls were remarkably inaccurate.

[sweeterthan]

Ok, people keep coming back to that but somehow never remark on the broader accuracy of polls, recently, and the notion that if polls were just soooo irrelevant, nobody would pay for them or care about them.

So yes, once, 4 years ago, polls were remarkably inaccurate.

maybe the polls were accurate but the guy who said it was rigged rigged it.


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[versusreality]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeik.../#531f91c22ba4

Here's my concern...it seems like the big money wants Trump in office.

[allegro]

Ok, people keep coming back to that but somehow never remark on the broader accuracy of polls, recently, and the notion that if polls were just soooo irrelevant, nobody would pay for them or care about them.

So yes, once, 4 years ago, polls were remarkably inaccurate.

They weren’t, though. The polls were actually pretty correct. But no polls dealt with the Electoral College.

[allegro]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeik.../#531f91c22ba4

Here's my concern...it seems like the big money wants Trump in office.

The economy is going to be in the shitter no matter what. The economy was already sliding as of February, before Covid slammed us. Wall Street can’t change people’s votes. Wall Street didn’t like Obama, either. But he won two terms.

[allegro]

[Wretchedest]

It's weird to me how often people seem to forget that.

A lot of them do take into account the electoral college though. A lot of them place an emphasis on battle ground states. And this year, for the most part polls quite accurately handled each of the primary votes. I'm not saying they are perfect but I'm saying that dismissing them is kind of silly.

[Jinsai]

it's so weird that we have this libertarian group funding the effective dirty hit ads, one of its key members is Kellyanne Conway's husband... it's so bizarre.

Maybe it is best if Biden just shuts up, lets the Lincoln Project hit him with these ads, and then just PLEASE (you can do this) destroy him in the debates.

[versusreality]

Biden needs to secure the swing states somehow, especially in the time of corna cases rising. heck, try to capitalize on some hurting red states too. show that you care not just for all of us, but for all of us and specifically to them.

after that, he'll need a strong debate.

he could pull it off that way...

[allegro]

A lot of them do take into account the electoral college though. A lot of them place an emphasis on battle ground states. And this year, for the most part polls quite accurately handled each of the primary votes. I'm not saying they are perfect but I'm saying that dismissing them is kind of silly.

You said 4 years ago the polls were remarkably inaccurate. Except the polls had Clinton up by 2 to 4 points. She won the popular vote by 2 points. Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by 79,316 votes (Electoral College): 46,435 in Pennsylvania; 22,177 in Wisconsin; and 10,704 in Michigan. Consider the massive voter suppression in Milwaukee and Detroit.

[allegro]

it's so weird that we have this libertarian group funding the effective dirty hit ads, one of its key members is Kellyanne Conway's husband... it's so bizarre.

The Lincoln Project IS NOT LIBERTARIAN. They’re all Republicans (or ex-Republican independents). Hence “Lincoln.”

Here are their Advisors:

GEORGE CONWAY
George Conway is a lawyer in New York City and a founding member of Checks & Balances, a group of conservative and libertarian lawyers organized to defend the rule of law.

REED GALEN
Reed Galen is an independent political strategist. He left the Republican Party in 2016 and has spent the last three years dedicated to the political reform movement, creating a better system for all voters.

JENNIFER HORN
Jennifer Horn is a communications strategist and former Chairman of the NH Republican Party. She was the first Republican woman in New Hampshire nominated for Federal office.

MIKE MADRID
Mike Madrid is a Republican strategist and former political director of the California Republican Party. He serves as a senior advisor to the California Latino Economic Institute.

STEVE SCHMIDT
Steve Schmidt is a national political strategist. He previously worked for President George W. Bush, Senator John McCain and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

RON STESLOW
Ron Steslow is a brand and marketing strategist and independent political consultant. Since leaving the GOP in 2016, he has worked to put voters first in our political system.

JOHN WEAVER
John is a national political strategist. He worked for President George H.W. Bush, Senator John McCain and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

RICK WILSON
Rick is a long time Republican media consultant and author of the New York Times bestselling book, Everything Trump Touches Dies.

[GulDukat]

Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News

[versusreality]

Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News

lol, I don't believe this at all. articles like this just energizes his base even more. no way he drops out.

[GulDukat]

lol, I don't believe this at all. articles like this just energizes his base even more. no way he drops out.

I don't know if they necessarily energize his base, but I agree, I doubt he drops out, unless his approval rating reaches the low 30's by the time of the convention.

[allegate]

can we fantasy football some scenarios?

1) Trump drops out and Pence is promoted to Pres, so who is the VP nom?

2) Trump drops out and Pence is left as VP and they nominate someone else as Pres?

3) Trump drops out and they realize Pence is a worse ticket so get rid of him as well?

[GulDukat]

1) Trump drops out and Pence is promoted to Pres, so who is the VP nom?

Pence/Haley 2020

2) Trump drops out and Pence is left as VP and they nominate someone else as Pres?

I don't think that would happen. Pence would either be nominated for POTUS or not on the ticket at all.

3) Trump drops out and they realize Pence is a worse ticket so get rid of him as well?

Who is someone who MAGA idiots will go for as well as disenchanted Republicans who can't stand Trump who isn't Pence? I really don't know.

[Wretchedest]

There is no way that is going to happen

[Jinsai]

unless there's a medical emergency, Trump isn't going to drop out of the race, and everyone should know that. He knows that if he drops out, he is doing it because he's afraid he'll lose, and he knows that everyone will know that, and that will be his legacy. His ego can't handle that.

I hate that when I talk about Trump's psyche, I feel like I need to break everything down into words a five year old could get, because that's really where he's at. This is not a complex man, he doesn't have deep thoughts.

I think there's a good chance that he really doesn't wanna keep doing this, and has every intention of dropping out, but only after he wins the election. Or maybe it's just the only version of reality that I can tolerate accepting at this juncture should he win.