11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[allegro]

You’re missing a lot of data, there, though. Warren was pushed by NOW not to endorse Sanders. Warren supporters asked her not to support Sanders. Because of how women Warren supporters had been treated by Sanders supporters throughout the campaign. That wasn’t something that was made up. It was genuine abuse. And nobody did anything substantial to tamp it down. It put Warren in a terrible position. Her safest bet was to do nothing until Sanders dropped out and endorsed Biden. It didn’t matter; Sanders had zero chance of winning SC. Warren could have endorsed Sanders and committed tribute suicide in the town square and Biden still would have won all those states after SC. Biden was on life support, the DNC wasn’t doing shit to support any candidate, and black voters in SC said fuck this shit. And then a giant Biden wave hit across the country. Sanders was toast after SC. Voters simply weren’t showing up for him. Politics works that way sometimes. Voters take control and determine the outcome.

Then we got hit by a worldwide pandemic.

[allegro]

Moving on: Turns out Amash isn’t contemplating running as an Independent. Word is that it’s far too late for ANY candidate to run as an Independent.

He is contemplating running as a Libertarian. The Libertarian Party is welcoming him with open arms.

I bet some serious Koch money’s gonna get behind that, too.

[theimage13]

Biden was on life support, the DNC wasn’t doing shit to support any candidate, and black voters in SC said fuck this shit. And then a giant Biden wave hit across the country. Sanders was toast after SC. Voters simply weren’t showing up for him. Politics works that way sometimes. Voters take control and determine the outcome.

I've always wondered: is there a good reason for primaries to be staggered like this? To me, it just feels like a really terrible system where we let a very small number of states kind of put their initial seal of approval on someone, and then it becomes this sort of "well shit, if they voted for them than so am I!" or "oh hell no I'm not voting for them if that's who these other states are picking!".

50 states. One day. Winner takes all. What's the reason - the good, valid reason - we don't do it that way?

[allegro]

I've always wondered: is there a good reason for primaries to be staggered like this? To me, it just feels like a really terrible system where we let a very small number of states kind of put their initial seal of approval on someone, and then it becomes this sort of "well shit, if they voted for them than so am I!" or "oh hell no I'm not voting for them if that's who these other states are picking!".

50 states. One day. Winner takes all. What's the reason - the good, valid reason - we don't do it that way?

There’s been a lot of talk about this. The reason the primary dates are this way is state laws per state.

Iowa and NH aren’t there to predict winners; they’re there to cull losers. SC is the true bellwether state.

We are a Republic, and each state has its own election system; so it'd be really hard to get the Governors and Secretaries of State and State Legislatures to do whatever it took, sometimes even constitutional amendments, to revise their primary election dates. The only date that is set in stone is the November election. The primaries mean a lot more to states than just Presidential elections; there's tons of state legislature primaries, judicial primaries, etc.

[Jinsai]

I'm with @theimage13 here though, it seems anachronistic whatever the initial rationale behind it is. In the modern world, we can do better, let's just do this on the same day and be done with it.

I wonder what's going to happen with the general election now though, with the post office being defunded and this disease likely running through November.

[allegro]

It MUST happen in November. One way or another. I suspect that states will move to early voting and drive-through voting if they don't like mail-in voting.

[GulDukat]

Does Biden kind of remind you of Coach from Cheers?

[theimage13]

It MUST happen in November. One way or another. I suspect that states will move to early voting and drive-through voting if they don't like mail-in voting.

I can't even wrap my head around the number of votes that wouldn't be cast if it went to drive-through.

We recently got our first Hate Chicken shop here, and the line wrapped around several blocks. For MONTHS. For fucking fast food.

But even scarier is what I see when I go to vote, and there are lines of people. Which already feel long when all 12" or so if you is standing between two other people. But now put 15 FEET between EVERY voter (vast majority will be one person to a vehicle), and.....goddamn. Say you've got 100 people in line - and that's not a huge number; I've been in much longer. That's over a quarter mile. I can see a lot of people poking out of line just enough to see how long that line is, throw their hands up in the air and say "screw this", and leave again.

[allegro]

I can't even wrap my head around the number of votes that wouldn't be cast if it went to drive-through.

It wouldn’t ONLY be drive-up. It’s just an additional option for early voting. Especially where there were so few volunteers, they had to close down locations so only other option was no voting at all.

[bobbie solo]

And there it is. The narrative that folks supported her because she is a woman shortly after demanding she step and and endorse a much less talented man.

She never once blinked on Medicare for All. Out of all of the lies told about her, that is one of the weirdest ones to me. Releasing a phased in plan instead of promising end results with no implementation and counting on people's ignorance on the difference is how policy works, and demonstrated her strength where he is weak.

My YAS QUEEN comment was not meant to represent that people only supported her b/c she's a woman (although to be clear, wanting to vote for a female candidate is high up in my desire list). Apologies if that's how it came out. I was just thinking of silly people I'd see on twitter, TV, etc. that would get all giddy about her gifsr, quotes, etc & have these goofy responses like that that were devoid of substance. People that seem to pick someone they think is the fun pick, the trendy pick, whatever & just b/c mindless cheerleaders for them. Kinda like the goofballs who do the dances for their candidates in Iowa (the Mayor Rat people come to mind).

Agree to disagree about her & M4A. Her super long timeline for implementation that included two separate votes in Congress was completely unrealistic to me. There would be no political appetite to drag things out that long & succeed. Especially when you think about how much the right will sue any of these plans in court. You gotta pull the bandaid right off as oon as you're in office to get something like this done.

Doesn't matter though. None of what anyone of us wanted is gonna happen b/c if Biden wins (50/50) he ain't gonna do shit. Biden & the word "bold" are about as far apart as humanly possible.

[theimage13]

Her super long timeline for implementation that included two separate votes in Congress was completely unrealistic to me.

Yeah. I forgot that the ACA was personally written and signed by Obama, without congress, in a matter of days, and that it totally has no major flaws whatsoever. How dare a presidential candidate recognize that Congress is the body that writes the laws and that something as complex as M4A would take time and bipartisan cooperation if we wanted to do it well?

[allegro]

United States Constitution, Article 1 - The Legislative Branch
Section 7 - Revenue Bills, Legislative Process, Presidential Veto

The Legislative Process

Introduction
Anyone may draft a bill; however, only members of Congress can introduce legislation

Keeping the Balance: What a President Can Do and Cannot Do

A PRESIDENT CAN . . .

• make treaties with the approval of the Senate.
• veto bills and sign bills.
• represent our nation in talks with foreign countries.
• enforce the laws that Congress passes.
• act as Commander-in-Chief during a war.
• call out troops to protect our nation against an attack.
• make suggestions about things that should be new laws.
• lead his political party.
• entertain foreign guests.
• recognize foreign countries.
• grant pardons.
• nominate Cabinet members and Supreme Court Justices and other high officials.
• appoint ambassadors.
• talk directly to the people about problems.
• represent the best interest of all the people

A PRESIDENT CANNOT . . .

• make laws.
• declare war.
• decide how federal money will be spent.
• interpret laws.
• choose Cabinet members or Supreme Court Justices without Senate approval.

[Aladdinsanity]

Who exactly was this counter-ad supposed to appeal to?

[theimage13]

Who exactly was this counter-ad supposed to appeal to?

Let me answer your question without even watching it:

Idiots.

Intelligent people vote based on what they've read in legitimate media outlets, watched the candidates say in debates, and by researching their resumes.

Idiots pick their candidates based on who the ads tell them to.

[allegro]

Let me answer your question without even watching it

We need to stop placating the Chinese Government, and we need to start calling out and demanding change from the American companies turning a blind eye to Xi's abuse and bullshit. That's not racist. It's Xi. He's horrible. We can separate the innocent Chinese citizens from the Chinese government and its authoritarian asshole President, Xi.

• Exhibit A
  
• Exhibit B
  
• Exhibit C
  
• Exhibit D
  
• Exhibit E
  
• Exhibit F

China Is Not the Hero of the Pandemic
You can criticize Trump without parroting Beijing’s propaganda

When Chinese scientists identified a mystery virus in December 2019, they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples, and suppress the news. When Chinese medical professionals began to sound the alarm, they were seized by police. For weeks, when Chinese state media went on air or to print, they ignored the virus’s spread. When government cadres heard rumors of some new SARS-like virus, they kept their heads down and continued praising party leader Xi Jinping.

And while there’s absolutely no excuse for the Trump administration’s dangerous stoking of anger at China to deflect criticism from its own failures, we also must not allow the Chinese regime—the same one holding over a million Muslims in concentration camps—to weaponize claims of racism. Indeed, China’s new accusations of xenophobia reflect little more than the political inconvenience of pointing out the virus’s geographical source.

This is all part of the CCP’s disinformation campaign designed “to deflect attention away from the very well-documented fact that the Chinese government deliberately delayed ringing the alarm bell on the coronavirus,” according to Victor Shih, an expert on Chinese politics. This strategy “dovetails very nicely with the persistent message from the Chinese government over the past few years that all of humanity is a ‘community of common destiny’ in which China is a leading power.”

China lied to the WHO.

Who exactly was this counter-ad supposed to appeal to?

Trump spent the first several months kissing President Xi's ass, about how Xi was handling this virus so bigly. Because Trump loves dictators. It wasn't until Trump was getting flack, himself, that he needed scapegoats. Two days ago, Trump was back to praising Xi. Because Trump worships dictators.

Biden is talking about President Xi and the CCP. Who does the ad appeal to? Intelligent people who know that President Xi is one of the WORST violators of human rights, and is a horrible authoritarian close to Hitler at this point who will do ANYTHING to hide negative press (even kill Chinese citizens).

See also.

For many people in China, the doctor’s death shook loose pent-up anger and frustration at how the government mishandled the situation by not sharing information earlier and by silencing whistle-blowers. It also seemed, to those online, that the government hadn’t learned lessons from previous crises, continuing to quash online criticism and investigative reports that provide vital information.

Some users of Weibo, China’s Twitter-like social media platform, are saying the doctor’s death resonated because he was an ordinary person who was forced to admit to wrongdoing for doing the right thing.

I’m not ragging on you guys, but it’s really important that people read up on the truth about Xi - not the glowing crap that Trump is always extolling - and that criticizing Xi and the CCP is not Sinophobia. Just like criticizing Netanyahu and his administration's human rights violations and brutal policies is not anti-Semitism.

[botley]

This is from the editor of Current Affairs (a left-leaning but independent publication). I think he makes a lot of good points about the allegation of sexual assault against Biden. It's time for his campaign to address this head-on instead of just repeatedly denying anything happened, until they're blindsided by Trump's allies running with it and turning independents off even more so they stay home.

[allegro]

There’s a bunch of info out there that already did this, including the “witnesses” cited by her in her allegations coming forth and saying they’ve don’t recall her or never met her. See NYT investigation. There have been a few statements released. The fact that this is a third rail for Democrats (and Republicans don’t care about this stuff) is exactly the plan to re-elect Trump. Biden is in a trick bag because all he can do is deny yet also be careful to validate the victim.

“Women have the right to tell their story, and reporters have an obligation to rigorously vet those claims,’ Deputy Campaign Manager and Communications Director Kate Bedingfield said on Friday. ‘We encourage them to do so, because these accusations are false.”

Reade acknowledges that the statute of limitations has run out and there cannot be a criminal investigation.

Something else might be going on. It’s important to listen to victims, but not all alleged victims are necessarily credible in their allegations. Patrick Kane, for instance, lost millions of dollars in endorsement contracts over allegations that were found to have been cooked up by someone’s mom.

Meanwhile, the Republicans put a tax benefit for the wealthy into the Coronavirus relief act that nobody seems to know about:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/49...-helps-wealthy

[botley]

There’s a bunch of info out there that already did this, including the “witnesses” cited by her in her allegations coming forth and saying they’ve don’t recall her or never met her. See NYT investigation.

Robinson covers the NYT investigation in his video above. The only ones denying it are Biden employees. Nobody seems to be taking it as seriously as they take other accusations of a similar nature.

Something else might be going on.

These 'interptetations' of Reade's story are also covered in Robinson's rebuttal. It's not a charitable interpretation unless Biden is somehow deserving of charity (he isn't).

[allegro]

The Biden employees mentioned are the ones who are alleged to have received the filed complaint. That’s key in a criminal investigation.

Doesn’t matter. It was nearly 30 years ago, the only investigations will be conducted by the Press (not a criminal investigation) and any information will be reliant on the memories of witnesses, as nobody can find any of the documents that the accuser describes. Everything is he-said she-said with no verifiable information, which suddenly appeared after the candidate was chosen (vs. when he announced his candidacy, which would have been a hell of a lot better for the entire process).

Here’s the reality:

If this leads to Biden declining the nomination, Sanders won’t get the runner-up crown.

Here’s what the Democratic Party’s rules and bylaws say about the process:

Filling a Vacancy on the National Ticket: In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.
For Democrats in 2020, that would mean DNC Chair Tom Perez would confer with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (the current chair of the Democratic Governors Association) and then issue a report to the full 447-member DNC. The party as a whole would then meet, deliberate, and pick a new nominee.

If a nominee had already selected a vice presidential pick, that could certainly factor into the party’s decision if the nominee dies. But Pildes noted it would not automatically mean the vice presidential pick would become the nominee.

So this will always work out.

[botley]

Well, then Trump is going to win if they don't address this and let Biden run against him.

[allegro]

Well, then Trump is going to win if they don't address this and let Biden run against him.

A dead cactus will win against Trump.

This isn’t 2016.

Democrats didn’t not give a single fuck about Bill Clinton and most still don’t. People hate Hillary more than Bill. That’s the stupid world in which we live.

[allegro]

Here’s a truth: In Presidential elections, there is NO FUCKING SUCH THING as an “Independent.” That swinging values Presidential voter is a fucking rarity.

“I’m pro choice and pro gun legislation but oh I hate Biden so I’m gonna go vote for a guy who molests women, puts anti-abortion judges on the Federal and US Supreme Courts, and protects 2A.”

[botley]

Nobody is going to vote for Trump because Biden stands accused, don't put words in my mouth. But progressives will stay home and others will be suppressed/disenfranchised. If the Dems are not getting ahead of ANY flaw in Biden's appeal they are gambling with poor odds.

[allegro]

I’m not convinced those Progs are going to vote for any Democrat.

Democrats cannot “get ahead” of this. There is no way to “explain” this other than to say what’s already been said. Because if Biden says she’s a liar, he’s calling all women liars. If he or his team says she’s not credible, he’s saying no woman is credible. That’s how it will all be interpreted. So he can only validate, deny, and that’s it. He’s in a trick bag and there’s absolutely nothing more to be said or done.

If people stay home and don’t vote, that is a de facto vote for Trump.

Biden could drop out and the DNC could install Harris as the replacement.

[GulDukat]

I honestly don't think this will be an issue seven months from now when people vote. Unless more women come out and say similar things, this is going to blow over.

[ltrandazzo]

I honestly don't think this will be an issue seven months from now when people vote. Unless more women come out and say similar things, this is going to blow over.

This is the winning post and unfortunately encapsulates the problem. We have one accusation with unidentified witnesses verifying it while identified witnesses dispute or deny it. It’s been a long time and unless more accusations from others come out that share similarities, it will be hard to pin down the actual truth.

I do not know enough to definitively have an opinion one way or the other and anyone who does can’t be 100% sure of the truth. Right now, if no one else comes forward, this might end up being the conclusion.

[bobbie solo]

Jesse Ventura signalling he wants to run as the Green Party candidate? Color me a little bit intrigued. To be clear, tons of blemishes & baggage with him, but I'm curious where this goes. Can the Greens get to that 5% threshold?

[allegate]

[theimage13]

I think the inclusion of the pandemic stuff - and right in the beginning, no less - kills that ad. Anyone who's not already voting blue regardless is going to see it as the cheap shot it is. (Don't get me wrong - we could have handled this WAY better, but given the amount of international travel we have here, I think we would have seen massive unemployment and empty store shelves regardless). If they'd stuck to stuff like him being laughed at by world leaders, that might have given it more weight.

[GulDukat]

I think the inclusion of the pandemic stuff - and right in the beginning, no less - kills that ad. Anyone who's not already voting blue regardless is going to see it as the cheap shot it is. (Don't get me wrong - we could have handled this WAY better, but given the amount of international travel we have here, I think we would have seen massive unemployment and empty store shelves regardless). If they'd stuck to stuff like him being laughed at by world leaders, that might have given it more weight.

I don't think that ad is a cheap shot at all. This is on Trump and the commercial is totally fair. If Clinton or Romney had been president in 2020 this would not be happening right now, at least not in this scale, because they would have listened to experts and not said shit like "it will magically just go away by itself by April." This ad could work for the minority that voted for Obama/Trump and is receptive to Biden.