11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[burninglard]

This feels exactly like 2016 all over again

[Jinsai]

Texas isn't going to happen...

Or am I just saying that, because whenever I predict stuff it turns out to not happen? Maybe I'm just completely insane at this point? But no, Texas isn't going blue, and it's the primary example of why this electoral college system is dumb. All of the big cities in TX lean blue, but there's all this Hills Have Eyes rural bullshit that is a completely different world. I drove across TX recently. It is two completely different universes between the long stretches of nothing and desert shacks and the cities. It really sucks that if you live in Austin, your vote is bullshit.

[Erneuert]

but there's all this Hills Have Eyes rural bullshit that is a completely different world. I drove across TX recently. It is two completely different universes between the long stretches of nothing and desert shacks and the cities.

LOL. What I've been thinking.

[versusreality]

New York Times is giving Trump a 70% chance of winning NC.

If he wins it, things are looking bleak...

[Jinsai]

New York Times is giving Trump a 70% chance of winning NC.

If he wins it, things are looking bleak...

Penn is the big one this time really, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If either of those got to Biden, there's less reason to freak out.

[Conan The Barbarian]

What’s worse is that the senate is starting to look red as well. What the fuck is going on?

[M1ke]

Penn is the big one this time really, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If either of those got to Biden, there's less reason to freak out.

And we can't expect either of those to have complete results until the end of the week.

[versusreality]

25% in with Michigan but Biden is getting killed so far.

[M1ke]

25% in with Michigan but Biden is getting killed so far.

Michigan didn't start counting their mail-in ballots until Nov 2. It's going to shift blue. It's just a question of how far.

[burninglard]

I seriously just don’t understand why this is happening again.!!!!

[M1ke]

If you want to start calling things early, he's got a lead in Ohio, and a big lead in Pennsylvania.

It's too early to call either way. The loss of Florida isn't great, but Biden's still the favourite, even with that loss.

[Magnetic]

538 says that Drump’s chances of winning jumps 33%. I feel sick...

[burnmotherfucker!]

The betting market odds just flipped for trump over biden. That hasn't been the case for months. And WTF Virginia?

[versusreality]

Ohio is a deadlock, Trump just gained a couple % points. NC very close too.

[M1ke]

I know this is scary. I know Florida didn't go how we hoped.

But it's too early to call anything right now. There are so many different paths for Biden to take this thing still.

Just breathe. It's far from over, and Biden still has the lead.

[Jinsai]

538 says that Drump’s chances of winning jumps 33%. I feel sick...

Oh god.... no no no no no no

[ltrandazzo]

I’m considering locking this thread if the doom posting doesn’t stop. There are a lot of votes out there that still need to be counted and that will take time. Let’s all take a step back.

[burnmotherfucker!]

I know this is scary. I know Florida didn't go how we hoped.

But it's too early to call anything right now. There are so many different paths for Biden to take this thing still.

Just breathe. It's far from over, and Biden still has the lead.

If Trump holds Fla and gets NC, Ohio, and any one of Mich, Wis, Pa it is very much over. And all those red states that were supposed to be closer, they aren't. Senate looking less likely.

[burnmotherfucker!]

I’m considering locking this thread if the doom posting doesn’t stop. There are a lot of votes out there that still need to be counted and that will take time. Let’s all take a step back.

Fair enough! I'm just looking at the numbers though and trying to be realistic.

[Mantra]

Hey guys, what's up. Long time no see.

Looks like Ilhan is holding onto her house seat by a fucking landslide.

[ManBurning]

Fair enough! I'm just looking at the numbers though and trying to be realistic.

I am generally curious what numbers you are looking at...

From this:

Biden is in the lead. I know things can change at any second, but... everything I see so far, Biden is doing well and @ltrandazzo is right, ya'll busting out "doom and gloom" card too early here.

[versusreality]

I use AP and Decision Desk

[burnmotherfucker!]

I am generally curious what numbers you are looking at...

From this:

Biden is in the lead. I know things can change at any second, but... everything I see so far, Biden is doing well and @ltrandazzo is right, ya'll busting out "doom and gloom" card too early here.

I'm looking at betting odds. They've been closer than the polls all along but Biden was still heavily favored for months. Here is one such site that was live posting odds...

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2...l-odds-futures

If anyone has better or more positive news please post it. This is one case where I would be very happy to be accused of over reaction. The map looks scary to me right now is all.

[paul_is_dead]

AZ is decent for Joe

[GulDukat]

I'm going to have to turn off my TV. I hope I'm wrong, but my gut says that Trump is going to win. I just don't get it.

[Jinsai]

Predictit's website seems to be exploding...

They're favoring Trump 78%

[versusreality]

I'm done. have a good night everyone.

[Erneuert]

Time for a comet to hit this planet if he wins a second term, sincerely.

[Jinsai]

Predictit's numbers have fluctuated, but Trump is still the clear lead now. Then again, I'm TRYING to log in and bet, and I can't because their whole infrastructure seems to be imploding under the traffic, so maybe that's a good sign?

[M1ke]

Decision desk has called Ohio for Trump as well, which is not good, but it looks like Biden will take Arizona.