11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[GulDukat]

You guys might want to check out Nate Silver's forecast, which goes state by state.

[halo eighteen]

You guys might want to check out Nate Silver's forecast, which goes state by state.

Yeah, I'm still reeling from 4 years ago so I'm not putting faith in anything that site/person has to offer.

[Jinsai]

People in the dark shadows pulling Biden's strings... People "on the streets," planes "almost completely loaded with thugs..."

WTF... anyway, I guess he got this meandering conspiracy bullshit from here? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ebook-n1238962

You know you're really striking out when even Laura Ingraham tells Trump that it sounds like he's getting into "conspiracy theory territory." The interview seems to have caused #TrumpStroke to trend on Twitter.

[allegate]

You know what? It really sucks that I can point to an entirely different story and say that "actually it was this" for the reason #TrumpStroke is trending. There shouldn't be multiple reasons to think/worry that the president has had a stroke.

The second story is that he actually had a stroke (I forget the term being used, something about a type of 'event' I believe?) and that's why he was sent to the hospital way back when during the night. Like, Pence was told "hey, emergency powers are at the ready just in case" kind of event. And also the reporter who knew this decided to wait until he had a book coming out to talk about it. Bro, this is the kind of thing we need to know when you know it.

also, since I just saw this tweet I figure I should edit it in:

[allegate]

Yeah, I'm still reeling from 4 years ago so I'm not putting faith in anything that site/person has to offer.

I nearly got fired from my job because of how badly that night affected me. it put me in a dark mood that affected performance quite a bit. I mean it didn't help that I had an asshole boss: I wasn't the first person to have a break down because of him, nor was I the last.

[GulDukat]

Yeah, I'm still reeling from 4 years ago so I'm not putting faith in anything that site/person has to offer.

Silver was the one person not saying Clinton had 98% of winning in 2016, giving her something like 67% chance. I wasn't totally shocked on election night because of him.

[allegate]

People in the dark shadows pulling Biden's strings... People "on the streets," planes "almost completely loaded with thugs..."

WTF... anyway, I guess he got this meandering conspiracy bullshit from here? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ebook-n1238962

You know you're really striking out when even Laura Ingraham tells Trump that it sounds like he's getting into "conspiracy theory territory." The interview seems to have caused #TrumpStroke to trend on Twitter.

here we go:

[versusreality]

the people from the plane must have sent him to the hospital last year

[GulDukat]

Trump looks and sounds like shit. Wouldn't be surprised if that were true. Look up an interview with him from the late 90's/early '00s and compare it to how he sounds and looks now.

[allegro]

You guys might want to check out Nate Silver's forecast, which goes state by state.

Too soon after the GOP Convention for updated polls.

As we said last week, there’s still just not a lot of data that can help us understand how Americans are responding to what’s happening in Kenosha, Wisconsin, but as Perry Bacon Jr. wrote on Thursday, one thing we do know is that declining support for the Black Lives Matter movement hasn’t translated to a decline in support for Biden just yet.

[GulDukat]

As we said last week, there’s still just not a lot of data that can help us understand how Americans are responding to what’s happening in Kenosha, Wisconsin, but as Perry Bacon Jr. wrote on Thursday, one thing we do know is that declining support for the Black Lives Matter movement hasn’t translated to a decline in support for Biden just yet.

Some people are so short-sighted and simplistic.

[GulDukat]

For those interested in the MA primary for the senate (Markey/Kennedy), you can see the returns come in here.

[versusreality]

For those interested in the MA primary for the senate (Markey/Kennedy), you can see the returns come in here.

thanks. this is looking pretty close so far. same with Morse/Neal

[GulDukat]

thanks. this is looking pretty close so far. same with Morse/Neal

With 12% of the results in, Markey has 56% of the vote. It's early, but I'd be very surprised if Kennedy wins.

[versusreality]

yeah, looks like Markey will win (yay) . Neal broke away from Morse. looks like Neal will win.

[GulDukat]

I'm thinking that if Markey wins, and Biden wins in November, Biden might give Warren a cabinet post, and then Kennedy could run and this time probably win in a special election for the vacant seat.

[cdm]

I'm thinking that if Markey wins, and Biden wins in November, Biden might give Warren a cabinet post, and then Kennedy could run and this time probably win in a special election for the vacant seat.

This is the only logical reason for a primary attempt on Markey. He had a less than zero chance at winning. There’s literally no other reason to do it. Which makes Pelosi’s endorsement all the more batshit.

[GulDukat]

This is the only logical reason for a primary attempt on Markey. He had a less than zero chance at winning. There’s literally no other reason to do it. Which makes Pelosi’s endorsement all the more batshit.

Markey was thought to be pretty weak this past spring and Kennedy was way ahead in the polls. Kennedy's lackluster campaign and weak debate performances and AOC backing Markey sealed the deal. But six months ago Kennedy was thought to be the favorite.

[allegro]

Kennedy seems to have shot himself in the foot with some pretty conservative views.

[GulDukat]

I think it was a few things. Markey was a lowkey, first term senator and at 74, seemed like he was vulnerable. Once people started to pay attention, the more they liked Markey. The AOC endorsement helped. Markey did very well with educated people, but also with the youth vote. He was the hipper candidate, which seems very odd and counterintuitive. You'd think that the 39 year-old Kennedy would be the hip one, with a savvy social media street team, but that seemed to be where Markey excelled. Also, after the glow of the Kennedy name faded, Joe P. Kennedy III just wasn't that strong of a candidate. His whole thing was "change," "we can do better," but really he said nothing, no real reason for him to challenge a sitting senator in his own party.

[cdm]

I think it was a few things. Markey was a lowkey, first term senator and at 74, seemed like he was vulnerable. Once people started to pay attention, the more they liked Markey. The AOC endorsement helped. Markey did very well with educated people, but also with the youth vote. He was the hipper candidate, which seems very odd and counterintuitive. You'd think that the 39 year-old Kennedy would be the hip one, with a savvy social media street team, but that seemed to be where Markey excelled. Also, after the glow of the Kennedy name faded, Joe P. Kennedy III just wasn't that strong of a candidate. His whole thing was "change," "we can do better," but really he said nothing, no real reason for him to challenge a sitting senator in his own party.

I always had the impression it was Markey's race to win but I'll defer to those in the state following the race much more closely than I. That said, Pelosi's endorsement was inexcusable, no matter the last name. By the time she offered her two cents the policy choice was clear. And then you factor in her "rationale" and the fact Markey is an incumbent after her primary stance in 2018. Fuck that. Her time is up as Speaker. If her district wants to reelect her, fine. But get a new Speaker.

And to be clear, I don't have a problem with Dems primarying incumbents. If you can run a more progressive candidate to either take over a district or push the incumbent further left...awesome. But Kennedy was neither. Whatever. This worked out, I guess.

[bobbie solo]

Nancy fucked around & then she found out. Hypocritical snake. Spent the last few years saying how she will always support incumbent Dems, and then she goes & stabs a former 25 year colleague of hers in the House right in the back. She even pushed for that DCCC edict that anyone supporting candidates that primaried incumbents would be blackballed.

Shows how soft her support is considering her full-throated, repeated endorsement did absolutely nothing in a state that is overwhelming blue. God I wish that Sikh dude had a real shot of taking her out. Time for that fossil to GO.

Sam Seder was talking about a potential write-in campaign for JKIII to take back the seat he just gave up. Seems crazy (to Seder as well, to be clear) but man that would be fascinating.

Damn shame about Morse. Thought he might be able to eke it out against that bought & paid for corporate stooge in Neal. I think Morse should do exactly what Cori Bush did & start planning to run again in the same exact race right now. He lost by a large margin, but he still had an impressive showing for a first-time run. Unlike alot of these other incumbents that Justice Dems tried to take out, Neal took this seriously from the get-go & defended himself well enough. I wonder how much that debunked, disgusting smear campaign against Morse ended up mattering.

[allegate]

[allegro]

Joe today in Wauwatosa WI:

[GulDukat]

Why Joe Kennedy’s Senate campaign flopped

[allegro]

I saw a Markey ad on MSNBC, where he turned around the JFK thing?

That was some brilliant shit. (The MUSIC in the beginning sounds vaguely familiar ... heh)

[allegro]

I want the Dems to win the House and Senate, but I gotta be honest:

It’s time for a new Speaker of the House.

I’m pretty tired of these old farts up front in Congress. They need to take a seat. We need term limits. And campaign finance reform. And that ain’t gonna happen with those fixtures in there.

[GulDukat]

Yes, Ed Markey was one of the great comebacks and turnaround stories in recent memory.

I saw Markey (then in the House) and (then) Senator Al Franken speak at the Lexington Depot in 2012, when they were stumping for Warren who was running for the U.S. Senate. I was super impressed with Markey and have liked him ever since.

[allegate]

[allegro]

Biden takes notes, something Trump NEVER does.

So what they’re proposing ain’t likely to happen, because this is a cheap debate trick used by shitty debaters against equally shitty debaters.

It will be, however, REALLY easy to throw Trump off track.

Biden uses “Come on, man” when he thinks the other party is full of shit, NOT as a method of regrouping his own thoughts or getting himself back on track. These idiots analyzing Biden debates aren’t very good at communication study or debate, and that’s a good thing.

Two points:

1) Neither candidate is the same person he was in 2016. But Biden was at least at great intellectual advantage over Trump in the first place. Biden was a defense attorney, and was in Congress for over 45 years (both centers of debate). Trump admits that he never once debated in his life until 2016. Someone took Trump’s SATs for him. He didn’t go to Wharton, he went to U-Penn and got a degree in Real Estate. Someone did his homework for him. He’s a silver-spoon spoiled brat Hitler.

2) As pointed out in the above link and in several other sources over many years, Trump never preps for ANYTHING. Not for speeches, not for debates. He comes in with the speech or notes in hand, or a teleprompter, and wings it; he believes people value his instincts and his extemporaneous off-the-cuff (cough) intellect. His notes contain main points to cover, which he studies in advance, most of which are self-aggrandizing bullshit points, and the rest bullshit Gotcha moments.

The only thing that trips Biden up is ad hominem shit, which isn’t typical or allowed in most debate, and of course Trump is going to use that.

So Biden’s handlers need to prepare with him, using those tactics, so that Biden’s speech impediment doesn’t pop up; because THAT’S when it does, and then he seems to hyper-focus on getting his speech on track, instead of his own point. He has methods of not letting BULLIES do this to him, and he needs to practice them in advance.