11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[theimage13]

I don't think that ad is a cheap shot at all. This is on Trump and the commercial is totally fair. If Clinton or Romney had been president in 2020 this would not be happening right now, at least not in this scale, because they would have listened to experts and not said shit like "it will magically just go away by itself by April." This ad could work for the minority that voted for Obama/Trump and is receptive to Biden.

As of yesterday, we've realized that we had cases in California weeks before what we thought were the first confirmed cases. And there may have been even earlier ones. Short of shutting down all international flights as soon as this was first reported in China, I think we'd still have ended up needing to take the drastic measures we are now. It's obviously possible that lives could have been saved - but the commercial doesn't actually talk about THAT part of the virus, oddly enough. It talks about shuttering jobs (which still would have been necessary to reduce spread), stores running out of stock temporarily (which still would have happened because people panic)...things that still would have happened unless we'd taken drastic measures before the virus even made it onto US soil. And I don't think that would have happened under Clinton, either. Would she have been a far better leader through the pandemic? Hell yes. The number of deaths - which again, the commercially oddly doesn't give a shit about - would almost certainly have been lower under her leadership. But given the incubation period of the virus (which wasn't known until it was too late) and the sheer amount of people moving about in this country, I have a hard time imaging a scenario in which business would have been bustling along as normal here. What do you think could have prevented large scale job loss? I don't want to hear "listening to experts". I want to hear what, specifically, you would have done to stop an extremely contagious virus with a weeks-long incubation period from spreading, without any job losses or business closures involved.

Now, let's also look at this: republicans are the ones screaming for the economy to open back up - something that democrats are pushing back against. So why would a commercial about unemployment encourage you to vote blue, if they're the ones saying places need to stay closed? Why would a commercial about empty store shelves matter when most stores are actually pretty well stocked again? (I seriously haven't had trouble finding anything I've needed in the last month.) And why does the commercial completely ignore the number of people who have died, which is one of the biggest things that, realistically speaking, could have been improved under better leadership?

[GulDukat]

Biden thinks Trump may try to delay the election.

[theimage13]

Biden thinks Trump may try to delay the election.

As usual, Biden says what most of the world has been thinking for weeks.

[GulDukat]

The Trump campaign issued a statement Friday, saying, "Those are the incoherent, conspiracy theory ramblings of a lost candidate who is out of touch with reality.

Projection?

[botley]

More evidence has emerged to back up Tara Reade's story about being assaulted by Biden in 1993. Very soon after Reade was asked to leave Biden's office, her mother called Larry King's show anonymously during a panel discussion about Washington DC staff mistreatment. The mother's question, though more vague than Reade remembered, does in fact match the situation Reade was placed in and backs up her claim that her mother knew and almost revealed what happened on King's show.

Hearing declared Democrats adopt the defensive stance en masse about all this is infuriating when so many liberal and progressive voices (including mine) have pivoted to seeing one or two comparably minor workplace misconduct allegations by women against powerful men as verification of a pattern, whenever one woman comes forward with a more greivous abuse or assault story. Reade's allegations have merit in the final analysis, when it comes to workplace behaviour. Biden has admitted to being too physical around people, and not giving them personal space. We know the timeline of her dismissal lines up with Reade's account of Biden taking advantage of her, even if there are small details that she has confused in recollection.

The accuser's friends and family have corroborated her claim that she told them about it at the time. The facts that can be verified match her account of when she told them. Why would she lie to them, in confidence? This side of the story is NOT being given the same weight as the response from Biden's current staffers — who are either understandably forgetting someone who briefly worked in the same office twenty-seven-plus years ago, or are covering for him. In fact, the interns that Reade supervised DO remember her, and corroborated part of her story as well.

This stinks and I wish we were talking about it instead of sweeping it under the rug and thinking it will blow over. It won't blow over. It's toxic waste. Just because Trump is living, breathing toxic waste doesn't mean it's not going to hurt Biden. Look at what happened to Bloomberg with one devastatingly worded question about workplace misconduct.

[allegro]

We can talk about it but what can we DO about it?

She shouldn’t have waited. She should have come forward when he announced his candidacy. We can side with her, but now we are all fucked.

Except the DNC CAN appoint someone else. That’s possible. But the timing of this is just horrible. This should have come out a year ago. Instead, she chose to come out when the final candidates were Biden and Sanders.

Now, we are in a global pandemic and can’t even hold further primary elections. The candidate she’s accusing is THE primary candidate. The DNC and Pelosi will have to choose an alternate. This will potentially alienate black voters, who’ve suffered far worse assaults under the Trump administration.

This is a no-win situation.

And, her telling her mom and others back then, 30 years ago, when there has been not one other person who has accused him of doing this still does not mean he absolutely did it, either. A person is still generally innocent until proven guilty. It’s difficult to prove an assault of this nature because you can’t go back and collect evidence. But, the onus of guilt would be on him whether he did it or not.

Which brings us back to: What is the desired outcome? Take out Biden?

Okay, but that has consequences. Black voters aren’t necessarily going to agree with that. The replacement is going to have to be black. 100%.

Let’s also not forget the multiple sexual assault allegations against Trump.

One of which was a 13-yr-old girl tied to Jeffrey Epstein, and she was forced to drop her lawsuit when she was harassed so badly. Ronan farrow outlined this in his book, “Catch and Kill,” and how the National Enquirer and AMI squashed any stories that could hurt Trump.



Having been in a situation, myself, where I had to go to police and file reports and go to court and face the person I accused several times - a person who was well-known in certain circles and wielded a great deal of power - and I was terrified of what he could do, and I had advocates to help me navigate this but I was often totally on my own, and he had weapons, I can only compare my situation to the transcript in that article (her mother is conveniently dead, btw):

CALLER: Yes, hello. I’m wondering what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington? My daughter has just left there, after working for a prominent senator, and could not get through with her problems at all, and the only thing she could have done was go to the press, and she chose not to do it out of respect for him.

RESPECT?!?

I could not have a SHRED of RESPECT for someone who did that.

Go the PRESS? How about go to THE POLICE?

And there had been tons of evidence that Ms. Reade continued to applaud Biden throughout the last 30 years. She wanted to go to the press (not police), then, but waited until the 11th hour, now?

I couldn’t manage to find one kind word to say about my abuser if someone paid me a million dollars.

My abuser died last December and his obituary appeared in the New York Times.

A few close friends texted me to see how I felt. An anonymous person texted me saying something like “this must be a tremendous gift for you.”

A relief, I suppose. But it never really goes away.

[Jinsai]

I guess I've decided to just not respond to these posts I'm seeing on social media "confirming" that Biden is a rapist. I just don't know what to even think.

[versusreality]

well, IF (a major if of course) the DNC has to choose someone else...and IF (another major if) he's interested (he's mentioned time and again he's not) , it'd be Cuomo. I can't see who else the DNC would pick. I don't know enough about his policies but I trust Sarah in saying they're not good.

[allegro]

And there’s all this:

https://medium.com/@eddiekrassenstei...n-e276cac68a2b

https://www.motherjones.com/politics...sts-survivors/

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...den-democrats/


Meanwhile, Biden is expected to announce his VP by May 1st.

That VP will likely be the replacement if this sexual assault allegation pushes Biden to withdraw his nomination. Which means there will be a female candidate, likely a black woman.

I’m cool with that.

[botley]

We can talk about it but what can we DO about it?

Have Biden speak out and address it — NOW — and let the chips fall where they may. What does he remember of her? Does he recall the incident differently or at all? Issuing further denials by proxy is just not going to cut it. Character assassination is not going to cut it. This is going to be what sinks him unless his team crisis manages the fuck out of it. And even then it might not be enough to save his candidacy.

[allegro]

Have Biden speak out and address it — NOW — and let the chips fall where they may. What does he remember of her? Does he recall the incident differently or at all? Issuing further denials by proxy is just not going to cut it. Character assassination is not going to cut it. This is going to be what sinks him unless his team crisis manages the fuck out of it. And even then it might not be enough to save his candidacy.

He has addressed it, via his campaign manager. Whatever he says will cast doubt on her credibility, by default, and that isn't a good message coming from a man in the time of the #metoo movement. So he is best off, from a PR standpoint, shutting up and letting the investigation that the press is conducting handle Reade's accusation. Because that's all it is: An accusation.

As has been said, already, men like this don't just do this once. They're serial abusers. And when one brave woman comes forward, a tsunami of accusers follow. See Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, Bill Clinton, Jeffrey Epstein, etc.

Reade made her accusation nearly two months ago. The other 8 Biden sexual harassment accusers did not add any sexual assault accusations. And no other sexual assault accuser has yet to come forward. So far, Reade's evidence is based on 28-yr-old hearsay, some of which is from dead people or anonymous people. Her public statements about Biden over the last 28 years have often praised Biden, including his work advocating on behalf of victims of domestic violence and sexual assault. She voted for Obama/Biden. Twice. The documents she claims exist cannot be located. Nobody has been sworn under oath to corroborate her claims. So, this is not a cut-and-dry case that should categorically sink someone. I think she should be heard, yes. But, I think her credibility should be thoroughly investigated. I think the context of her harassment claim should be weighed, as it was the beginning of the EEOC sexual harassment law in the early-90s.

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...den-democrats/

Most troubling to me about this whole story—besides Reade’s obvious pain over whatever happened—is the way folks on the left are using it to smear feminists and Democrats who have a hard time believing her charge. “For Elite Democrats, Joe Biden’s Candidacy Means Ditching #MeToo,” Liza Featherstone wrote in Jacobin. (I guess that now includes Sanders.) When I watched a video of the Sanders endorsement on his site late Monday, dozens of rolling on-screen commenters called Biden a “rapist.” That’s repugnant. (Now that the mainstream media has investigated Reade’s claims, Jacobin, predictably, finds the coverage lacking.)

It’s true, for a time, that one of the slogans that emerged from the nascent #MeToo movement was “Believe women.” But it was never that simple; nobody ever said, or meant, “Believe every woman, no matter how incredible or undocumented her claim.” The point was to give women’s accounts of sexual assault a fair and respectful hearing: first, hopefully, by police; or, if she made her claim to the media, by reporters.

Reporters have done just that with Tara Reade. Her allegation against Biden doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny. And bullying by the left or right won’t change that.

[theimage13]

Is it even worth asking why Biden should withdraw over allegations (regardless of credibility) if Trump,​ of all people, is still running? It feels like the whole Al Franken situation all over again.

[Jinsai]

well, as long as it turns out to be pretty much as much as it was with Franken... I mean, what he did was lame, but not assault. I'm not condoning it or saying what he did was by any means ok, but it wasn't what they made it out to be. Unless there's some other info I don't know about...

[allegro]

I think, too, that there's a big portion of Democrats who are afraid of automatically jumping on board these social justice trains because of having been burned.

Jussie Smollette, for instance. That was a disaster.

Asia Argento, another total disaster. She was a Weinstein victim, she got way up front in the #metoo thing, partnered with Rose McGowan, started a relationship with Anthony Bourdain. Bourdain became her huge champion, backed her both emotionally and financially, etc. Then Argento fucks around with another guy in Italy, and tells Bourdain sorry you didn’t know I’m about being casual, and Bourdain kills himself. Then, we come to find out that Argento had molested a teenage boy while filming a movie years ago, resulting in Bourdain being forced to pay this kid-now-adult to go away. Then, McGowan has to issue a public statement backing away from Argento. Then people realize that Argento is neither a hero nor reliable.

Now, people are waiting before jumping on board these trains. Because some of the people on it have some serious issues.

Also: the Intercept isn't an unbiased source.

[M1ke]

If you're forced to choose between one sexual predator or another, I'd still vote against Trump, but ideally someone else should step up and take Biden's place.

[allegro]

If you're forced to choose between one sexual predator or another, I'd still vote against Trump, but ideally someone else should step up and take Biden's place.

First, technically, neither candidate has been criminally charged or prosecuted as a “sexual predator.”

Second, that’s not how our political process works.

The Democratic National Convention was to take place in July in Milwaukee. It’s been postponed to August due to Covid and it’s now said to likely to be a virtual convention.

Biden was voted in by Registered Democratic voters. The other Democratic candidates suspended their campaigns. Nobody can “step up and take Biden’s place.” What will happen is that the (virtual) convention will take place, the Democratic Party will officially choose Biden based on the decision of the voters (delegates).

If any other accusers come forward between August and November, that might make this accuser’s account more credible and might possibly make Biden a “sexual predator.” Until then, he is accused of having assaulted one woman. In this country you are innocent until proven guilty. Biden’s been accused of stuff for the last year by people trying to get rid of him. Democrats don’t trust anyone right now.

If no other accusers come forward, Democrats will move forward and assume that Reade is simply a pissed-off Sanders fanatic and they’ll guide themselves accordingly. Others will vote just to get Trump out.

But, as I said, this country votes the first Tuesday of November. No matter what. if this grows legs and the DNC needs a new candidate, they have specific rules as to how they choose one. And it has nothing to do with anyone stepping up and everything to do with the Party and the House Speaker literally choosing a Democrat as a replacement.

Lastly, this is a REALLY good article (although this guy needs an editor):

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/tar...ult-allegation

Contrary to the claims of journalists like Glenn Greenwald and Nathan J Robinson, mainstream media outlets did not avoid the Tara Reade story because they did not want to damage Joe Biden. They avoided it because Reade is not a reliable witness and the story is completely inconsistent. The reality of it is that Reade’s account falls apart under minimal scrutiny, and any halfway decent journalist would have seen this a mile away. As [Salon’s Amanda] Marcotte noted:

The story of Reade's allegations against Biden shows what can happen when the rigorous standards espoused by mainstream publications are sidestepped for a more credulous and politicized approach. The failure to vet this story methodically and to preemptively address its odder elements opened the door to a whirlwind of conspiracy theories and misinformation.

[bobbie solo]

well, IF (a major if of course) the DNC has to choose someone else...and IF (another major if) he's interested (he's mentioned time and again he's not) , it'd be Cuomo. I can't see who else the DNC would pick. I don't know enough about his policies but I trust Sarah in saying they're not good.

Cuomo is 100% interested in being president, but the timing does not work out well for him at all. I think it would be a terribly bad look for him to drop running NY state in the middle of this crisis to go campaign for president. Guess the conditions on the field could improve great enough that that could change, but that seems unlikely with tons of things around the country being cancelled through the fall now, and ever increasing warnings of a possible fall CV return?

That being said, the shift left in the party will make a prez run by him in 4 or 8 years basically impossible considering he's a centrist Republican in (versus)reality.

[theimage13]

GOP memo urges anti-China assault over coronavirus

When asked whether the spread of the coronavirus is Trump’s fault, candidates are advised to respond by pivoting to China.

“Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China,” the memo states.

To be crystal clear, I am not defending China. But if your entire party's strategy is "our actions are indefensible, so keep yelling at other countries regardless of relevancy"....fucking hell.

[Jinsai]

Maybe this is tit for tat politics. I don't know. Trump's been accused of raping and molesting something like 30 accusers, and he openly admitted he liked to grab the pussy without permission on a tape we had before he was elected... I dunno...

CAN I PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE live in a word where Trump isn't president? That's ALL I FUCKING WANT.

[allegate]

I read a point the other day that made a lot of sense: wouldn't this have come up in Biden's vetting in 2008? You know, when he was asked to be the potential vice president of the united states? how did this allegation make it past that to 2020?

I say that while posting this comic. hypocrisy, thy name is.

[versusreality]

so, what if out of the blue Biden picks Cuomo as his VP pick. Cuomo has said: "I don't plan to run for president" . Ok, well, he never said anything about VP. Then, after the convention, Biden steps down, Cuomo becomes the nominee, and picks a woman of color as his VP.

How could Trump win after that?

[theimage13]

so, what if out of the blue Biden picks Cuomo as his VP pick. Cuomo has said: "I don't plan to run for president" . Ok, well, he never said anything about VP. Then, after the convention, Biden steps down, Cuomo becomes the nominee, and picks a woman of color as his VP.

How could Trump win after that?

Same way he won last time - by coupling voter suppression and a 3,000,000 popular vote deficit.

[theimage13]

See also:

[botley]

I read a point the other day that made a lot of sense: wouldn't this have come up in Biden's vetting in 2008? You know, when he was asked to be the potential vice president of the united states?

Because his running mate was Barack Obama... it seems like a million trillion years ago, but in 2008, he looked like the most energizing, beloved and progressive-seeming shining beacon of hope and the inclusion of Biden on his ticket was a careful calculation to reach centrists that worked while keeping him somewhat arms-length from the levers of power. In 2020 things are different, Biden could be holding real executive power in the office of President. It's wild to me that people don't want to carefully critique someone who abused their power in such a gross way before potentially sending him into that office.

[allegro]

so, what if out of the blue Biden picks Cuomo as his VP pick.

Biden is choosing a woman. He’s said that repeatedly.

[allegro]

It's wild to me that people don't want to carefully critique someone who abused their power in such a gross way before potentially sending him into that office.

He’s been critiqued, there have been several investigations. Several interviews with Reade. Several attempts to locate any and all documents she referenced (documents she, herself, neglected to retain copies of). Said investigations included attempts to interview alleged witnesses as well as actual interviews with witnesses. A FAR MORE MASSIVE investigation than what happened with Dr. Blasey Ford, and THAT was conducted by the FBI and it only interviewed Blasey Ford and nobody else. The Reade account includes a transcript of a TV show which alleges to have voice transcript from Reade’s now-deceased mother saying her daughter wants to go to the Press about something unknown but has too much “respect” for an unknown Senator. Coupled with decades of public comments and then many years of public social media comments from Reade commending Biden.

Voters are like jurors. They take in all of this information as a whole and render a verdict. That’s what will happen.

[allegro]

Same way he won last time - by coupling voter suppression and a 3,000,000 popular vote deficit.

Amash is gonna screw that up just a bit.

[Jinsai]

Amash is gonna screw that up just a bit.

I'm not sure what Amash is thinking...

[GulDukat]

Elections expert lays out why coronavirus could lead to a ‘nightmare scenario’ in November

[allegro]

Elections expert lays out why coronavirus could lead to a ‘nightmare scenario’ in November

This is why so many states are moving toward getting mail-in, absentee and early voting options in place now, so that they’re ready. Because the inability to vote will affect Republicans as well as Democrats. The Ohio Governor is Republican but his state has gone to mail-in ballots. Wisconsin has mail-in but it has to be WITNESSED, which is ridiculous; they have until November to fix that.

Mail-in will have to start early and get counted early. Trump can be a total moron and “declare victory” but he’d be an idiot. We’ve had elections in a pandemic, before. Even during world wars. We will figure it out and get it done.