If I was a European fan (and I'm not) and for a standalone concert, I would expect to see a 35-40% Greatest Hits setlist + 40-50% Hesitation Marks + 10-20% deep cuts. This is for a standalone concert during the Hesitation Marks promotional run. For a European festival, yeah, I'd expect the setlist that was played in Riga yesterday. I think we're underestimating the "average fan" (whatever the hell this means) that goes to a NIN concert today. Yeah, some of them (maybe most of them) will not be wanting to hear a deep-cuts heavy concert, but I bet a lot of them would want to hear a bigger portion of the new record, given that this is the tour for said record.
The Riga setlist only has 3 Hesitation Marks songs out of 19, 15%. I'd personally like to hear more HM in a standalone concert.