Geopolitical Conflict News

[allegate]

Some things that may be useful to consider. I'm sure some or all of it is covered by Western media, but it may also be lost in the ocean of other news

- Majority of people in Russia (and Belarus for that matter) do not support the war, including many of those who actually supported Putin (until Feb 24 at least)

- Many, many, many people actively protest the war. Several thousand people in most major cities have been caught and jailed during the protests.

- Propaganda and censorship machine is working at full capacity. State media push the only allowed narrative: it is a special operation against a nazi regime that oppresses brotherly nation. People do seek the truth, nevertheless. I think I saw somewhere a report from BBC that their Russian-language broadcasting had its traffic tripled in recent days.

- Several biggest independent or semi-independent news outlets are under severe crackdown. Using the actual word war is not allowed, so is citing any sort of information not coming from the official (state) resources. The workaround here is that every few minutes news hosts had to interrupt themselves so say that [this and this] is not confirmed by the ministry of defense and that ministry of defense stresses that is a special military operation bla bla bla [but not a war].
This workaround, however, only worked for so long. Two of the biggest outlets (TV Rain and Echo of Moscow radio) had been taken off the air and their websites shut down. They continue working on Youtube, however. Smaller and regional media (radio, newspapers and websites) were also basically silenced.
Next in line is most likely Novaya Gazeta, which is led by last year's Peace Nobel Prize winner Muratov (who was nominated by "for the efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, which is a precondition for democracy and lasting peace.") Won't be any surprise here.

Putin's regime had 21 years to mold the country into police state. Unfortunately, the propaganda often works and not enough people have realized just how deep in shit their own future is. (and many will still blame the west for it).

great post, didn't want to leave it on the bottom of the last page.

[elevenism]

Pravda opinion piece from the 28th, published in English, was slightly alarming. It was entitled "A Looming Danger For the West," and contains this: "the little red buttons may seem the only viable alternative to a humiliating defeat."

These sanctions may not seem like much, compared to military support, but they are unprecedented and may collapse the entire Russian economy. I'm pretty damn sure Putin sees these sanctions as a hostile act of war.

My read on Putin is that he is NOT going to take his ball and go home. He's got too much ego and pride for that. Hell, consider the relative the insanity of this full scale invasion in and of itself. And that's WITHOUT getting into the speculation that he's mentally or terminally ill.

There's no fucking telling what he'll do, or where this leads.

There's at least one good peace of news, though, with "China signalling it's ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire, as it 'deplored' the outbreak of conflict," per Financial Times

[sweeterthan]

Is anyone else terrified after Macron revealed that the call he had with Putin was bad?

[elevenism]

Is anyone else terrified after Macron revealed that the call he had with Putin was bad?

I haven't gotten to that part of today's doom scrolling yet. Give me a minute.

[fillow]

Two of the biggest outlets (TV Rain and Echo of Moscow radio) had been taken off the air and their websites shut down.

They speak in Russian but you don't have to know it to get what's happening.

The final words are NO WAR.

[allegate]

I thought I saw that even though they're all off the air Fox is still up, but I can't find that again.

Also something about a $1B bounty on Putin from a fellow Russian? I wonder.

[Erneuert]

remove duplicates from email list

[richardp]

Apparently they've shelled the largest Nuclear Plant in Europe and it is currently on fire. I just... this is just fucking insane.

[allegate]

Yeah, at what point does the rest of the world say, “you know, we should probably do something before he goes completely insane and takes all of us with him.”

[allegro]

Use “translate” to read the post, but ESPECIALLY read the comments about what the people are saying and what others’ relatives are saying in Russia:

[SM Rollinger]

Apparently they've shelled the largest Nuclear Plant in Europe and it is currently on fire. I just... this is just fucking insane.

That's it, my opinions on this have changed. This is madness, puts all of humanity at risk. My grandpa and dad used to say shit like "we shouldnt have stopped at Berlin in 45" and now I get it.

Fucking madness, this has to stop.

[Dryalex12]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russ...-2802775/amp/1

Fires out, crisis averted but man, that could have been REALLY bad

[muad'nin]

A good insight into Putin’s motivation behind this mess. What a godawful situation this could become.

[Volband]

It is definitely not as black-and white as social media paints it to be. It's especially worrying how Zelensky is praised all-around for being a hero, while weaponizing civilians, asking them to fight till the end and people online are cheering for civilians attacking Russian vehicles with molotov cocktails. In my opinion this should not be cheered, because it gives the Russian army all the right to mow down cities and civilians. Same goes for US troops who rather killed children than risked a suicide bombing attack - as cruel as it is, they are pretty much forced into it.

Sure, resisting till the bitter end sounds heroic, but it is an unwinnable war for Ukraine and after a certain point you have to wonder if reddit upvotes and twitter praises are worth the loss of all these lives. The more I think about NATO weapon shipments, the less I understand the point of it, as it just delays the inevitable at the cost of human lives. If in the end Putin still gets what he wants, even if through a peace treaty, then it was all for naught.

edit: about's Putin reasoning though: war was definitely not the next step on this issue, but he WANTED to go to war. He could've had countless of sanctions and diplomacy meetings with Ukraine or the west, and if then all else fails many years down the line, then maybe war would've been his only possible move. But he didn't try shit, he just waggled his finger while probably already having this all planned out.

[Volk]

It is definitely not as black-and white as social media paints it to be. It's especially worrying how Zelensky is praised all-around for being a hero, while weaponizing civilians, asking them to fight till the end and people online are cheering for civilians attacking Russian vehicles with molotov cocktails. In my opinion this should not be cheered, because it gives the Russian army all the right to mow down cities and civilians. Same goes for US troops who rather killed children than risked a suicide bombing attack - as cruel as it is, they are pretty much forced into it.

Sure, resisting till the bitter end sounds heroic, but it is an unwinnable war for Ukraine and after a certain point you have to wonder if reddit upvotes and twitter praises are worth the loss of all these lives. The more I think about NATO weapon shipments, the less I understand the point of it, as it just delays the inevitable at the cost of human lives. If in the end Putin still gets what he wants, even if through a peace treaty, then it was all for naught.

edit: about's Putin reasoning though: war was definitely not the next step on this issue, but he WANTED to go to war. He could've had countless of sanctions and diplomacy meetings with Ukraine or the west, and if then all else fails many years down the line, then maybe war would've been his only possible move. But he didn't try shit, he just waggled his finger while probably already having this all planned out.

Are they supposed to not put up a fight?

[Volband]

Are they supposed to not put up a fight?

Right now I'm on the opinion that they should not put up a fight.

The first few days were chaotic, no one knew what will happen, and the Ukranians could at least hope for some serious help from the west. Now, it is clear how (not) far the west is willing to go for them. They are willing to lend ammunition and weapons for them to get slaughtered, but they are not willing to cut all economic ties with Russia. They are willing to aid their people who are fleeing the country but they are not willing to send an army there. It's also clear that the Russians are willing to get more and more serious: after the first few days you could hear opinions about bad Russian equipment and low morale, but they are becoming more and more ruthless, slowly grinding up the Ukranians. Ukraine's only hope is some civil insurrection within Russia and that's it.

And keep in mind that Ukraine is urging their civilians to put up a fight too, which makes them even more of a target. I don't see how Ukraine can win this war and I don't know how much lost life can be justified for such a hopeless battle. Keep in mind, it's not me or you who are dying on the battlefields. As a romantic principle, I absolutely love the idea of dying for a just cause, but when it comes to real lives, it's not so simple. I get that there's at least a thousand motivational quote about how you must fight, but that will hardly be any consolation for all the victims who will be fallen.

[allegate]

I have not seen actual mental gymnastics at work in real time before but reading each line of that post was the most amazing floor routine I've ever been witness to.

[cdm]

"surrender and let them kill you" is certainly a take.

[Volband]

I have not seen actual mental gymnastics at work in real time before but reading each line of that post was the most amazing floor routine I've ever been witness to.

If you support the seneless deaths of civilians then let's agree to disagree, because I don't. But if at the end of the day Putin can't get what he wanted (denying Ukraine's entry to NATO, occupying the eastern parts of Ukraine) then maybe you guys are right and throwing a bunch of - to you - "cannon fodders" at the Russians were the right thing to do. But if he still gets all of these and turns out that a bunch of civilians died for no good reason whatsoever, then you have some morbid evaluation of a human's life.

It's crazy what social media can do to people's perception. Then again, it's not our lives, so I guess there is no weight on being happy for civilians being turned into combatants, we will be safe at the end of the day, thoughts and prayers for the rest.

"surrender and let them kill you" is certainly a take.

That's a pretty stupid take, who said that? I am pesonally on the surrender and don't let them kill or you, or at the very least don't militarize civilians so you don't get them killed.

[cdm]

That's a pretty stupid take, who said that? I am pesonally on the surrender and don't let them kill or you, or at the very least don't militarize civilians so you don't get them killed.

What part of the Russian military doctrine leads you to believe the latter doesn't come with the former?

[allegate]

Let's see what you're comparing: Becoming a POW of a repressive regime that started a war (potentially a world war) on a fucking whim or fighting like hell to ensure that you and your family and your country don't get overrun.

And don't come in here with that "if you support the senseless death of civilians" bull. I was actually in the military and work with several veterans - it's hard to get away from them in this line of work - and I don't support the death of anyone, civilian or otherwise.

[Volband]

What part of the Russian military doctrine leads you to believe the latter doesn't come with the former?

What would they gain by genocide (if they surrender; the genocide I'm talking about later meant to be against active combatant civilians)? Putin wants to smack his cock around because that's his whole character, "the man you can't fuck with", so he wants to put Ukraine and the west "in their places". Mowing down surrendering civilians doesn't do anything for his image.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota..._on_the_north/ - is this what you really support? If these kids take out 3 Russian kids before they die as well, but the ending of the war is still going to be the same, then is this really worth it? They'll have a nice plaque and some candles, but on the other hand, they could've had their lives. I don't want to pull some demagogue, hippie rant about wars and how no one should die, I understand that the armies have to fight right now and that people will die in wars, but weaponizing kids and giving molotov-cocktails to other civilians to make them targets is a big no for me under the current circumstances.

Also, we had a Yugoslavian war before where we had actual ethnic genocide when things escalated. We are not there yet but it was what, less than 40 years ago? I don't think there's such racial tension as there was within Yugoslavian nationalities, but it's still not something I'd like to see being repeated.

@allegate: if you lose the war, even if by a shitty peace treaty, then you'll essentially end up POWs. That's my whole point. There's a fine line between sending your civilians into senseless suicide and utilizing them to tip the scales of a very close war. This war is not close by any means. I am not saying there is zero chance that Russians turn against Putin and take him out one way or another, and hindsight will be 20/20 for sure, but don't underestimate the Russian propaganda.

[Dryalex12]

Has anyone just outright told you have some of the worst opinions on this site, Volband? Like I stay out of political stuff because I would be a dilettante if I tried to speak my mind on it. But serious dude.

[richardp]

Right now I'm on the opinion that they should not put up a fight.

The first few days were chaotic, no one knew what will happen, and the Ukranians could at least hope for some serious help from the west. Now, it is clear how (not) far the west is willing to go for them. They are willing to lend ammunition and weapons for them to get slaughtered, but they are not willing to cut all economic ties with Russia. They are willing to aid their people who are fleeing the country but they are not willing to send an army there. It's also clear that the Russians are willing to get more and more serious: after the first few days you could hear opinions about bad Russian equipment and low morale, but they are becoming more and more ruthless, slowly grinding up the Ukranians. Ukraine's only hope is some civil insurrection within Russia and that's it.

And keep in mind that Ukraine is urging their civilians to put up a fight too, which makes them even more of a target. I don't see how Ukraine can win this war and I don't know how much lost life can be justified for such a hopeless battle. Keep in mind, it's not me or you who are dying on the battlefields. As a romantic principle, I absolutely love the idea of dying for a just cause, but when it comes to real lives, it's not so simple. I get that there's at least a thousand motivational quote about how you must fight, but that will hardly be any consolation for all the victims who will be fallen.

I'm sorry I don't like to usually report to childish name calling, but Jesus fucking christ you are an idiot. If someone broke into your house while you were home, and starting breaking everything and saying THIS IS MINE NOW, you would just sit back and not put up a fight? Just give the invader the keys to your house? Give 'em the lease? Show 'em around and then go....go where?

Think about how absolutely fucking stupid the bucket of slop that just fell out of your mouth sounds. Like, REALLY think about it.

[Volband]

One final post about this because I don't want to delay further and we will see what happens next.

I'm sorry I don't like to usually report to childish name calling, but Jesus fucking christ you are an idiot. If someone broke into your house while you were home, and starting breaking everything and saying THIS IS MINE NOW, you would just sit back and not put up a fight? Just give the invader the keys to your house? Give 'em the lease? Show 'em around and then go....go where?

Think about how absolutely fucking stupid the bucket of slop that just fell out of your mouth sounds. Like, REALLY think about it.

If they were outnumbering and outgunning me, then yes. They may want 1/5th of what I have and that sucks but that is still preferable to losing 5/5th of what I have. That's all. Know when to fight, know when not to, that's a basic advice in life. Wagering it all when you have terrible odds is not brave, it's stupid. I rather be remembered as the guy who got robbed, then the guy who got robbed and killed.

Has anyone just outright told you have some of the worst opinions on this site, Volband?.

Yes. I still don't know what is so controversial about not wanting innocents civilians being sent to be slaughtered, but if that is a stupid opinion to hold then so be it. Let them die then, I guess? There's a discord where you can see plenty of murdered Russians and Ukranians. Let me tell you, it's not pretty, and it's definitely not pushing me towards the opinion of "fuck yeah, war!! let's send more civilians!!!!"

[WorzelG]

To be fair to @Volband he’s not really slagging off the civilians in question, it’s the people egging them on. I think the UN just has to send some military aid, the sooner the better.

[cdm]

To be fair to @Volband he’s not really slagging off the civilians in question, it’s the people egging them on.

Are we reading the same posts?

[WorzelG]

Are we reading the same posts?

Ok I just see where he’s coming from in not fighting an outnumbered battle you can’t win.

I just think the UN has to step in with united countries. The British government is absolutely neck deep in Russian money that paid for Brexit and I hope somewhere down the line this is investigated

[Exocet]

It all comes down to as to what happens in Russia. Its about exhausting Russia. Until someone in the Kremlin finds a backbone and offs him. Hopefully soon. There is no going back for Putin now anyway he is more Akin to Hitler now in European perception rather than intimidating autocrat. Totally irredeemable I will never view him the same. I'm sure many behind the scenes think he has gone too far.
The Soviet Union a much more powerful state lost Against Afghanistan this will probably be Putins version of that. Bogged down low morale etc.
Russia has been in news a lot the past decade its hard to find level headed non biased experts. I have followed some neutral brilliant Russia experts for years and even they 10 days ago never thought Putin would be insane do this.
At best he was going to formally annex Donetsk and Luhansk but missils in Kyiv was a fantasy..

The general census seems to be that Putin is isolated and has small circle around him. He has been in power too long lost touch. And is deluded. Unfortunately he won't back down and it will get much worse.
Ukraine and Russia have such a deep interconnected history its unusual as someone from a former massive empire i kind of emphasize with that Russian mindset sort of like relationship between England and certain British colonies with strong ethnic links Russians don't really see them as foreign itsvdepressing to see these links be destroyed by Putin this unusual relationship in that former sphere . I think its near the end for Putin either way total flop of a leader

[fillow]

Facebook and Twitter completely blocked in russia.
A new law has just been passed that threatens with a up to 15 years of prison for spreading 'fake information about the actions of russian army' which is a direct hit to every remaining media outlet.