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    COLD and BLACK and INFINITE Song Debut Predictions

    Conclusion

    NIN's Cold and Black and Infinite 2018 tour has now officially wrapped up, and we have learned at least one thing: we are terrible at predicting NIN setlists. Total new song debuts: 7. Total correct guesses: 0. To be fair, the only debuted songs in the second half of the tour were either HTDA "covers" (is it really a cover if every bandmember apart from Rob Sheridan was onstage?), or due to Mike Garson being around, but still: one of us really should've put our virtual money on some HTDA appearances. I mean, come on, folks.

    Anyway, since there were no actual "real" points given to anyone over this whole thing, we must be a little fuzzier with our placements:
    • If we take into account the cheeky "a song will be played" style votes which I'd given 2 points to, Dryalex12 technically wins the contest, by virtue of low voting standards. Well done!
    • If we ignore those, loopcloses is the more "proper" winner, being the first person to bet so conservatively (only a single track), and so was punished less for the wrong prediction than nearly everyone else.
    • Esperanzan gets an honorable mention, since I allowed the vote "NOT We're In This Together" to provide some points. Apart from the shenanigans mentioned above, these were the only positive points on the board! Though it was quite offset by the rest of Esperanzan's enthusiastic voting.
    • A further honorable mention goes to K-Rice, for being bold enough to put in a vote for "all of The Fragile", which put the initial score way down to the very bottom, where it stayed for the remainder of the game. Shoot for the stars!


    That's about it, really! I still think that this idea could be expanded into a more general "setlist prediction" game, which could be used on future tours, but I suspect that would be a hell of a lot of work for not much gain. Time will tell!

    Thanks for engaging in this bit of silliness with me -- this was a truly stellar tour, and it was awesome watching it unfold.

    Final Scores

    If you know Python, feel free to check my scoring logic at https://github.com/apocalyptech/ets-...ster/scores.py, not that it really matters.


    Dryalex12: -83
    • +2 bonus points for being cheeky
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    theimage13: -83
    • +2 bonus points for being cheeky
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    loopcloses: -135
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Downward Spiral"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    R-Dot-Yung: -135
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Deep"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    cdm: -135
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    joplinpicasso: -185
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Sunspots"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Halo Infinity: -185
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Every Day Is Exactly The Same"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Everything"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    WorzelG: -185
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "My Violent Heart"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Zero-Sum"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    henryeatscereal: -235
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Adrift And At Peace"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Deepvoid: -260
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Idea of You"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    klyrish: -285
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    xolotl: -285
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Disappointed"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Warning"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Esperanzan: -360
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Down In It"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • +50 for guessing "NOT We're In This Together" correctly
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Not Anymore"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "The Four of Us Are Dying"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Fragile"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Great Below"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    trollmanen: -360
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Deep"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "No, You Don't"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Please"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Quake Main Theme (track 1)"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Haysey: -385
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Capital G"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Idea of You"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Theme For Tetsuo: The Bullet Man"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Elrickooo: -385
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Get Down, Make Love"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "God Given"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Please"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Right Where It Belongs"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Underneath It All"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    Erneuert: -385
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • -250 for incorrectly guessing "Full TDS Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    paul_guyet: -585
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Downward Spiral"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "The Fragile"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Where Is Everybody?"
    • -250 for incorrectly guessing "Full TDS Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    elevenism: -758
    • +2 bonus points for being cheeky
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Not Anymore"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Scary Monsters"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
    • -500 for incorrectly guessing "Full PHM Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    fillow: -835
    • -750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    AThousandDaysBefore: -1010
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "My Violent Heart"
    • -50 for incorrectly guessing "Where Is Everybody?"
    • -75 for incorrectly guessing "Zoo Station"
    • -750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    K-Rice: -1835
    • -750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
    • -1000 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (right) Album"
    • -10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
    • -10 for not guessing "BBB"
    • -10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
    • -25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
    • -10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
    • -10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
    • -10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

    paul_guyet is being a little unfairly scored at the moment, since I realize that the predictions I put down in there include both "All of TDS", plus a few TDS tracks, but in the end it didn't turn out to be important enough to look into much. Sorry, paul_guyet, if your placement should be a bit higher than it is.

    A bit silly to have a scoring system where literally everyone is in negative points forever, isn't it? Ah well.

    Original Intro

    So we're a bit over halfway through Cold and Black and Infinite, and we've got this little reprieve before the gang gets back on the road. I don't think anyone could've predicted the kinds of insane setlists we've been getting this time around, and at this point it sort of feels like practically anything's possible.

    So, how about we place some bets about what new songs might get debuted in the remainder of the tour? Not, like, with money or anything, but here's the general gist of what I was thinking:

    Method

    Each person puts their votes in a single post. Put down the full list of stuff that you think'll debut in the remainder of the tour, and then we'll wait and see. Full points for predictions would stop at the start time of the first Mexico City date -- any posts edited/added past that time will get fewer points. Then once the tour's over, it gets scored something like this:



    Vocals:

    Correct prediction: +100 pts
    Bonus points for a never-been-played song: +50 pts
    Wrong prediction: -50 pts
    Debut which you didn't guess: -25 pts

    Instrumentals / Covers:

    Correct prediction: +150 pts
    Wrong prediction: -75 pts
    Debut which you didn't guess: -10pts

    Bonus points if you correctly guess all debuts: +100 pts

    If no new debuts, and you post with "no debuts": +100 pts (though that would certainly be a shame; too late to get any points for guessing this one, though!)

    Example: Let's say I predict Down In It, Heresy, and God Given. By the end of the tour, I've gotten pretty lucky and they've performed DII and Heresy, but also No, You Don't and Into the Void. So I get +200 for my correct predictions, -50 for the one I got totally wrong, and then -50 for the two that I missed. So my score ends up at 100.

    Predictions for full-album playthroughs should probably be weighted a bit more heavily, yeah? I'm proposing the following:


    (points for successful prediction / subtraction for incorrect prediction)
    Pretty Hate Machine: +1000 / -500
    The Downward Spiral: +500 / -250
    The Fragile (left): +1500 / -750
    The Fragile (right): +2000 / -1000
    With Teeth: + 1200 / -600
    Year Zero: +1500 / -750
    The Slip: +1000 / -500
    Hesitation Marks: +1500 / -750
    NTAE: +300 / -150
    ADD VIOLENCE: +300 / -150
    Bad Witch: +300 / -150

    I haven't really thought the exact point values through too much -- this was mostly a driving-home-from-groceries-with-not-much-else-to-think-about thing -- so I'm open to suggestions. Ties get broken by earliest post timestamp, I suppose. My thought was to penalize folks from casting too wide a prediction net, with the negative points, but also encourage a bit of boldness. Instrumentals/Covers should, IMO, carry a bigger reward/penalty since those are in general far less likely. I omitted a never-been-played category in there 'cause I think at this point basically all of them would be in there, yeah?

    Winner gets the warm glow of contentment and pleasure that comes from having beaten the odds!

    Fun, possibly? I think so.

    Tour Updates


    Nov 18 - Mexico City, MX, Corona Capital: -
    Nov 19 - Mexico City, MX, Plaza Condesa: -
    Nov 23 - New Orleans, LA: -
    Nov 24 - New Orleans, LA: -
    Nov 25 - New Orleans, LA: -
    Nov 27 - Irving, TX: -
    Nov 28 - Irving, TX: -
    Nov 30 - Las Vegas, NV: -
    Dec 1 - Las Vegas, NV: -
    Dec 3 - San Francisco, CA: -
    Dec 4 - San Francisco, CA: -
    Dec 7 - Los Angeles, CA: A Drowning and Welcome Oblivion (HTDA covers)
    Dec 8 - Los Angeles, CA: -
    Dec 11 - Los Angeles, CA: -
    Dec 12 - Los Angeles, CA: -
    Dec 14 - Los Angeles, CA: Just Like You Imagined, In This Twilight, On the Wing, Ice Age (last two HTDA covers)
    Dec 15 - Los Angeles, CA: BBB (HTDA cover)

    Played So Far

    Haysey suggested that I include the list of already-played songs in here, quite awhile ago, and I'd completely neglected to do so until the "main" window was already closed, but here it is anyway (cribbed from elevenism's thread) -

    Pretty Hate Machine:


    Head Like a Hole
    Terrible Lie
    Sanctified
    Something I Can Never Have
    Sin

    Now I'm Nothing

    Broken:


    Pinion
    Wish
    Last
    Help Me I Am in Hell
    Happiness in Slavery
    Gave Up
    Physical (You're So)
    Suck

    The Downward Spiral:


    Mr. Self Destruct
    Piggy
    March of the Pigs
    Closer
    The Becoming
    I Do Not Want This
    A Warm Place
    Eraser
    Reptile
    Hurt

    Burn
    The Perfect Drug

    The Fragile:


    Somewhat Damaged
    The Day the World Went Away
    The Frail
    The Wretched
    Even Deeper
    La Mer
    Just Like You Imagined
    Starfuckers, Inc.
    The Big Come Down

    And All That Could Have Been

    With Teeth:


    All the Love in the World
    The Hand That Feeds
    Only

    Home

    Year Zero:


    The Beginning of the End
    Survivalism
    The Good Soldier
    Me, I'm Not
    The Great Destroyer
    In This Twilight

    The Slip:


    1,000,000
    Letting You

    Hesitation Marks:


    Pinion / Eater of Dreams
    Copy of A
    Came Back Haunted
    Find My Way

    Not the Actual Events:


    Branches/Bones
    Dear World,
    Burning Bright (Field on Fire)

    Add Violence:


    Less Than
    The Lovers
    This Isn't the Place
    The Background World

    Bad Witch:


    Shit Mirror
    Ahead of Ourselves
    God Break Down the Door
    Over and Out

    Covers:


    David Bowie:
    I'm Afraid of Americans
    I Can't Give Everything Away
    Subterraneans

    Joy Division:
    Digital
    Dead Souls

    Gary Numan:
    Metal

    How to Destroy Angels:
    A Drowning
    Parasite
    Welcome Oblivion
    On the Wing
    Ice Age
    BBB
    Last edited by xolotl; 12-16-2018 at 02:45 PM.

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