11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[Deacon Blackfire]

First of all, I'm sorry to hear about your health problems and hope that you feel better. Really was not trying to start shit.

Secondly...*sigh*...I have to address this.

his "OH MY GOD, THE BILLIONAIRE FASCISM IS COMING" post

You can mock my opinions and exaggerate their contents all you want (this is such an aggressive mischaracterization of my original post that at this point I'm thinking that you're actively trying to miss the point), but that being concerned with Bloomberg potentially being the Democratic candidate is, to you, alarmist and ignorant says more about you than me. Obviously political powers in this country go beyond the executive branch (like the Senate, which, you know, Bloomberg helped keep Republican with his cash), and your implicit determination that I'm too ignorant to understand that because I'm concerned with the presidential candidate nomination process (which has broad, fairly obvious political implications on down the ballot races - good luck with turnout if Bloomberg's the candidate) is honestly obnoxious and condescending. For the record, I've donated generously to my district's primary challenger and am invested in seeing our horrible incumbent removed but frankly, I don't feel like I should have to detail my political contributions for my opinion to be considered to have any value.

I said a Bloomberg nomination would end the party - it wouldn't destroy the system so much as prove it's already broken.

[Demogorgon]

Speaking of Bloomberg... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN20G054

[allegro]

like the Senate, which Bloomberg helped keep Republican with his cash

How so? Where? Single-handedly? With no Adelson or Koch?

He supported Pat Toomey in PA specifically because Toomey led an effort to expand background checks for gun purchasers. He also donated money to GOP Republicans facing Tea Party upsets (Tea Party assholes of course eventually bringing the onslaught of Trump). But the VAST majority of Bloomberg’s political donations have gone to Democrats, and he nearly single-handedly bankrolled the 2018 House flip. He’s so obsessed with gun control legislation, he’s been known to write letters to Democrats asking them NOT to support those Dems who won’t get behind universal background check legislation. As you likely know, the NUMBER ONE platform of the GOP is 2A. Not gun control.

It’s been said that the biggest voter obstacle facing Bloomberg is his NYC Pop Tax. Yes: Pop Tax. (Also not one iota Republican.)

It’s not likely that one single candidate could “destroy the Democratic Party.”

And, if they did, it’d evolve into something else. Or nobody’d care. About 1/3 of the country is registered Independent, now, anyway. The system is the Democratic Republic. The party is just the bullshit that we’re stuck with. If someone comes to change it, let ‘em?

What does this sound like?

Last Presidential election, I wanted to vote for John McAfee because he really is the coolest candidate who gets it. Sure, he’s kinda psycho but that’s okay, too. But, the Electoral College prevents a 3rd Party candidate from winning. And, there are warrants out for John’s arrest.

“aggressive mischaracterization.” I don’t even know what that is. I think it may be illegal.

But, here’s my prediction:

Sanders wins Dem nom.
Sanders loses General to Trump.
Republicans keep Senate.
Democrats keep House.
We lose at least one more SCOTUS Justice (to GOP).
Trump gets impeached again during 2nd term.
This time, he gets removed (because of SDNY evidence).
We get President Pence. And probably VP Nikki Haley.
Middle class tax cuts expire in 2025 and taxes increase (per GOP Bill).
New Democratic President (elected in 2024) is blamed for everything.

[allegro]

[theimage13]

Sanders wins Dem nom.
Sanders loses General to Trump.
Republicans keep Senate.
Democrats keep House.
We lose at least one more SCOTUS Justice (to GOP).
Trump gets impeached again during 2nd term.
This time, he gets removed (because of SDNY evidence).
We get President Pence. And probably VP Nikki Haley.
Middle class tax cuts expire in 2025 and taxes increase (per GOP Bill).
New Democratic President (elected in 2024) is blamed for everything.

You had me up until removed because of SDNY evidence. As long as he's in control of just about everything, I think he remains untouchable - even by courts outside his direct control. Or he somehow finds a way to overtake SDNY too.

If he wins again, the only way he's leaving the White House before Jan '25 is in a very large black bag; crumpled McDonalds wrappers being crushed by the gurney and a half-written rage tweet sitting idle on his phone.

[GulDukat]

Stop comparing Sanders with McGovern:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...bMPt77idSl6Ctc

[allegro]

If he wins again, the only way he's leaving the White House before Jan '25 is in a very large black bag; crumpled McDonalds wrappers being crushed by the gurney and a half-written rage tweet sitting idle on his phone.

yeah, I’d considered that possibility, too, actually. His advanced age, obesity, health status. Bad Karma prevented me from typing it.

He’d only be in control of the Executive. The Senate wags the dog more than anyone realizes. But, it’s dependent on the status of the economy, the severity of the SDNY evidence relative to fatigue of 2nd term Trump bullshit, etc.

[Deacon Blackfire]

“aggressive mischaracterization.” I don’t even know what that is. I think it may be illegal.

In my initial post, I recounted Bloomberg's record of supporting right-wing causes and policies, lamented that the Democrats' embrace of him exemplified their self-interest and commitment to leveraging our desperation against us even in the face of the fascism radiating from the current administration, and expressed concerns about how bad a brokered convention swung toward him would be. You summarized this as "OH MY GOD, THE BILLIONAIRE FASCISM IS COMING." That is nothing if not intentionally reductive. Sorry you didn't like my use of language though!

[allegro]

I recounted Bloomberg's record of supporting right-wing causes and policies, lamented that the Democrats' embrace of him

1) Bloomberg has equally, if not more-so, embraced left-wing policies (like gun-control legislation, climate change initiatives, and public health)
2) I see no evidence, so far, of Democrats "embrace" of Bloomberg
3) I see no evidence, so far, of Sanders being able to take out Trump
4) Any "brokered convention" would be due to TWO non-Democrats (Independents) entering the race as Democrats
5) None of which addresses what's truly ruining the country right now, which is Donald Trump and his cadre of White Supremacists

You lost me with this Paragraph of Pathos:

That there is even a chance of him being the Democratic Presidential candidate illustrates the profound limits of "Vote Blue No Matter Who" and how the Democratic party has continually leveraged our desperation against us. Instead of rising to the occasion of the legitimate threat of fascism brewing, they endeavor instead to use our yearning for something, ANYTHING else but Trump to push through someone almost identical to a Republican - in Bloomberg's case, a literal Republican - who will almost certainly lose, and if they don't lose, they play the usual Democrat dance of effecting so little positive change that voters end up convinced that Republicans will somehow be better in four years.

Four years of Trump and the Democratic party is still most concerned with protecting itself.

I see zero evidence that the DNC has done any of the above; I only see the MSM pushing certain candidates that suit its own centrist monetary agenda, as well as Russia pushing its own agenda, and the Bernie fans pushing its agenda (one that discounts the likely reality that the Senate will remain Republican and that NOTHING will get done in the next 4 years).

And, I don't even LIKE the DNC. I fucking HATE organized political parties. But, the DNC's hands are currently tied due to money constraints. Trumps' campaign war chest is HUGE; bigger than anybody else's. Very few incumbents lose. Even shitty ones. An incumbent losing to a challenger who will be labeled a "Communist" will be even more challenging, especially when they whip out the opposition data, like:

* Bernie honeymooned in Russia
* Bernie voted against the Magnistky Act

Etc. Sure, all of this can be explained, but it will be "Hillary Emailed" in PR.

Democratic voters are like jurors; all that it takes to swing them away is a shadow of doubt. Republican voters, however, go straight party line; they'd vote for Satan if he was on the winning ticket.

"Vote Blue No Matter Who" is a TWITTER meme from desperate Democrats who just want to RID US OF TRUMP, and are sick of the in-fighting; it's NOT an invention of the DNC.

[Deacon Blackfire]

1) Bloomberg has equally, if not more-so, embraced left-wing policies (like gun-control legislation, climate change initiatives, and public health

This "he's a good rich guy now" shit is embarrassing, misses the forest for the trees, and just illustrates how little Bloomberg's decade of hounding minorities matters to you. That should be disqualifying, full stop, I don't give a shit if he says he's "sorry."

2) I see no evidence, so far, of Democrats "embrace" of Bloomberg

You mean besides them straight changing the debate rules, scrapping the individual donor threshold, so he could appear at the debate after so many candidates have already had to drop out and suspend their campaigns? But I know, I get it, the DNC is a private organization and questioning the logic or ethics of anything they do makes me an uneducated simpleton.

3) I see no evidence, so far, of Sanders being able to take out Trump

None of my posts in this back and forth with you have even mentioned Sanders but I get it, him honeymooning in Russia is way more concerning than Michael Bloomberg's legacy of racist policing. That seems like an informative enough place to end this and spare the thread.

[allegro]

This "he's a good rich guy now" shit is embarrassing, misses the forest for the trees, and just illustrates how little Bloomberg's decade of hounding minorities matters to you. That should be disqualifying, full stop, I don't give a shit if he says he's "sorry."

The guy who started the Terry Stops was Rudy Giuliani. There was a lot of misplaced evidence of the value of Terry Stops during that time, and Bloomberg and his advisors claim that their goal was to try to protect the people in the neighborhoods who were in danger. There isn't enough evidence to show that racism was the motivation so much as bad and unproven policing tactics. Chicago has had the same problems for years, with Mayors (who aren't cops) relying on Police Superintendents and so-called "experts" to give the advise as to how to deal with crime in various high-crime areas, often leading to disastrous results. Chicago, especially, has had disastrous results in that regard. With many many deaths, and a Judge's ruling with the police department now under judicial monitoring. Both Sanders and Biden voted for the 1994 Crime Bill, which inarguably did more harm to minorities than any other legislation in the country; far more than Terry Stops.

Look, we all embrace George Soros as the good rich guy who's okay for his liberal philanthropy and Bloomberg was a good guy when he financed the flip of the House to the Democrats, but when he did this, yeah, people questioned it. Except you should see all the "Mike 2020" signs in my Jewish liberal neighborhood, where they beg to differ. So, I guess it's all your perspective. Four more years of Trump jailing and killing children at the border, taking away reproductive rights, removing environmental protections, beefing up police brutality, encouraging anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim violence, sending in a team of lawyers to provide a Amicus brief in the case to be argued before the SCOTUS that would allow employers to fire LGBTQ employees, etc. is what worries some people more than the sins of a lot of these candidates.

I see people on Twitter, daily, hammering at Liz Warren for Native American bullshit, and how she "fucks minorities for trying to be a minority," etc. Which is bullshit, and Native American tribes have forgiven her for it, have applauded her plans to assist them. But, now she's forced to take money from SuperPACs and she's getting shit for THAT. And that she "used to be a Republican." It never ends, because it's all a Purity Test.

You mean besides them straight changing the debate rules, scrapping the individual donor threshold, so he could appear at the debate after so many candidates have already had to drop out and suspend their campaigns? But I know, I get it, the DNC is a private organization and questioning the logic or ethics of anything they do makes me an uneducated simpleton.

Nobody SAID you were, so stop it. I'm only saying stop with the hyperbole, it only makes things worse. The DNC can't look a gift horse in the mouth and in the case of Bloomberg, the gift horse is the millions and millions he's pumping into the other Democratic candidates in this election in the Senate and House races. Which none of the other candidates are doing. That's how it works, unfortunately. But, spending millions and getting onto the ballots and into the debates doesn't guarantee anything.

Where's Tom Steyer?

Campaign ads can be bought, but votes can't.

[Sarah K]

There is TONS of evidence to support policing motivated by racism over data and research - at least here in NYC where I study it.

Also he explicitly and directly confirmed that race was the main way they targeted folks.

[allegro]

There is TONS of evidence to support policing motivated by racism over data and research - at least here in NYC where I study it.

Also he explicitly and directly confirmed that race was the main way they targeted folks.

When I see cases of “racial profiling,” what instantly comes to my mind are cases of singling out race where that race stands out as the only one. “Driving While Black” is one that has been used against friends of ours, co-workers, people just driving home from work and pulled over because police assumed that solely because the driver was black the car couldn’t possible belong to them, like they must have stolen the vehicle.

About 25 years ago, the city in which I live was sued by the ACLU for racial profiling for pulling over black drivers who were simply DRIVING THROUGH the city limits. The police admitted its error and vowed to repair the damage. We now are a proud diverse city, with Hispanic and black residents. But the PD has diversity training to make sure that it treats residents and visitors with respect, and nothing like that happens again.

The City of Chicago is one of THE most segregated cities in the country. The highest shooting rates are in areas containing nearly 100% minorities. Those minorities are segregated into minorities areas (black, Mexican, Puerto Rican, etc.)

CPD has dealt with crime in these high-crime / high-minority areas in the same manner that Americans would treat Asians in Vietnam when “they all look the same.” The Police assume that any of “them” could be a “bad guy” and that the entire area is a “War Zone.” The police often enter WRONG HOMES, shake down terrified residents - INCLUDING CHILDREN - in their own homes, tear the house apart looking for a suspect that is at another house, then leave the terrorized family without so much as an apology.

The City of Chicago spent more than $113 million on police misconduct lawsuits in 2018.

Blatant racism is treating entire minority populations as if they’re criminals, not to serve and protect the innocent among them, but the belief that THERE AREN’T ANY. And much of the CPD operated under that belief for generations. Still does.

I think it’s *possible* that Bloomberg wasn’t aware that his police policies were racist (in that they were treating everyone of a race as if they were potential criminals), because I think it’s possible that he was a naive idiot. I mean, overt hatred is a far cry from overreaching policy based on stupidity and arrogance. But, I agree with Joe Biden in that it shouldn’t have required the Obama Administration’s intervention for Bloomberg to finally cut it way back after he’d been advised so many times and had received so many complaints; that’s just arrogance, which of course causes people to suspect overt racism.

The same thing happened with Rahm Emanuel. You’ll notice he’s not Mayor, anymore.

At any rate, I suspect that Bloomberg is just gonna fizzle, anyway.

[allegro]

You had me up until removed because of SDNY evidence. As long as he's in control of just about everything, I think he remains untouchable - even by courts outside his direct control. Or he somehow finds a way to overtake SDNY too.

If he wins again, the only way he's leaving the White House before Jan '25 is in a very large black bag; crumpled McDonalds wrappers being crushed by the gurney and a half-written rage tweet sitting idle on his phone.

All Gothy hopelessness aside ... lol.

My husband and I have been obsessively tracking swing state sites and playing with these Electoral College tracking estimators and right now it looks like Trump is gonna lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Sanders or Biden or Bloomberg depending on the District (or pretty much any of Dem candidates). Arizona is still in play. Florida, I’d thought that would for SURE be a shoe-in for Trump but my husband thinks not, since Trump barely squeaked by with it last time.

Wisconsin is for sure going to Trump, because Wisco still has a long way to go. Same with Texas. Houston is getting a lot of liberal transplants but Texas ain’t there, yet.

Ohio is still in play for Democrats, too.

[Demogorgon]

If you take a drive through Ohio on any given day, you'll see yard after yard after yard of Trump signs, Trump bumper stickers, and ridiculously decked out vans covered with Republican slogans. It would surprise me very much if Ohio went to anybody else. Polls can say what they like, but having been all over the state, i've seen more Trump support here than for anyone else. Assuming all of these people vote, that is.

Before anyone jumps to conclusions, I don't have bumper stickers on my car, and my partner was going to vote for Yang. She's keeping her stickers on to show support for his ideas even if he won't be in the race anymore. I don't know who she's voting for now with him out, I haven't asked. She might not even know yet.

[allegro]

Yeah, Michigan is the same way in rural areas - but the Metro voting areas far outnumber the rural voters. Same in Illinois, times a LOT. Most of Illinois is totally RED. Except Chicago and a lot of its suburbs are not, so Illinois is winner-take-all Blue for Presidents.

We go back-and-forth with Governors and U.S. Senators, though.

We shall see re Ohio; it truly is kinda Indiana-like as far as conservative dominance in the rust belt right now.

As a nerd, I liked Yang, too, I hope he lands on some Committee somewhere or in an Administration.



Bernie Sanders’ acceptance speech in Nevada, tonight: VERY impressive. Two thumbs up.

[GulDukat]

Maybe Sanders will be the McGovern of 2020, or maybe not. He might very well be the nominee and I plan of trying to stay positive for the next nine months and not act like (the usually sound) Chris Matthews and get hysterical.

[neorev]

Bernie crushed it in Nevada!

Biden was in 2nd place, nearly 40 POINTS behind Bernie with over 50%.

[Mantra]

I recently got a new phone and haven't had time to load it up with my music, so I've spent the last few weeks listening to the radio on my work commute, this one rap station in particular, and damn, there are so many Bloomberg adds on that station it's crazy. Sometimes every other commercial is a Bloomberg add, even within the same overall commercial break. I don't think I've heard even one add from any other candidate. And there's something about the tone of these adds that's really off-putting and condescending. Like because it's a hiphop station, the add will really try to play up the racial angle, so he's like "You know, I started out with nothing and became a self-made billionaire, achieved the american dream, blah blah blah, but you know what? I wouldn't have been able to achieve ANY of that if I was black or latino, because of something called INSTITUTIONAL RACISM." And it's just like...jesus dude.

The weird thing is that, I kinda wonder if this whole add strategy might backfire on him badly. I mean, no other candidate seems to be campaigning in this way, where they're just carpet bombing the airwaves with trashy ads. It's not a good look. It almost reminds me of those commercials for sleazy lawyers that you see on late night tv, where they ultimately end up looking like a joke when compared to normal professional lawyers who don't need to resort to corny ads because they're the real deal. It just has the effect of making him look kinda desperate.

[allegro]

^^ Yeah, they’re here, too, on TV. Don’t think he’s going to have any luck with those.

The only Bloomberg ads I like are on the giant anti-Trump electronic banner he had in Vegas that says hilarious shit like:

DONALD TRUMP CHEATS AT GOLF

DONALD TRUMP WENT BROKE RUNNING A CASINO

DONALD TRUMP EATS BURNT STEAK

DONALD TRUMP’S WALL FELL OVER

I guess he’s had them at other cities, too.

I want one for my CAR, lol.

[neorev]

72% OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS BELIEVE BERNIE SANDERS WOULD BEAT TRUMP IN 2020 ELECTION, NEW POLL SHOWS
https://www.newsweek.com/72-democrat...Bf2eorLHa8U8vQ

[versusreality]

I don't see Warren dropping out yet, she didn't do great in Nevada...but I imagine half or more of her supporters going to Bernie. when that happens, it's truly game over for everyone else.

[allegro]

WTF

[onthewall2983]

I don't see Warren dropping out yet, she didn't do great in Nevada...but I imagine half or more of her supporters going to Bernie. when that happens, it's truly game over for everyone else.

I read on Twitter that at her rally in Seattle she announced the Nevada win and the crowd cheered.

[Magtig]

There really should be more talk of how to contribute support to swing states and the senate races in this thread. What are you doing, or thinking about doing? What can be done? I've seen some initiatives and wondered if anyone donated to or had any interaction with the following:

• FairFight.com Stacey Abrams organization working to combat gerrymandering and voter suppression
• HowWeFliptheSenate.com an organization created by Shaun King to target winnable senate races
• Swingleft.org an organization around flipping the senate, local races, and combating gerrymandering
• Flippable.org an organization dedicated to flipping seats to democrats

For presidential election the swing states I'm mostly focused on are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. From what I understand these are the states that delivered an electoral college victory to Trump. Right now polls indicated that all the democratic candidates are neck and neck with Trump in those states. Bernie and Biden have slight edges or are tied in several. Most of the other candidates are losing.

See www.realclearpolitics.com for all kinds of polling in specific states and beyond.

[Magtig]

Ah! On that note I found a reddit comment summarizing current polling in battleground states Bernie v Trump. Anyone who knows politics will tell you polling this far out can't be trusted, so think of this as a starting point.

"Let's pour through some of the battleground states' polling data.

Wisconsin: [Tie]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6850.html

Michigan: [Sanders +5.3]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6768.html

Arizona: [Trump +5]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6808.html

Texas: [Trump +4.2]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6819.html

Maine: [Sanders +8]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6923.html

Pennsylvania: [Sanders +3]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6862.html

North Carolina: [Sanders +1]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6745.html

Florida: [Sanders +.3]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html

Colorado: [Sanders +10]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6942.html

Nevada: [Sanders +2.7]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6868.html

Virginia: [Sanders +1.5]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6989.html

New Hampshire: [Sanders +5]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6780.html

Georgia: [Trump +1]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6979.html

Ohio: [Sanders +2.5]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6764.html

National: [Sanders +4.4]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6250.html

If we were to put this all a map, we'd get a Sanders win at 330-197 electoral votes with an unclaimed 10 electoral votes for undecided Wisconsin."

Sent from my SM-N970U1 using Tapatalk

[allegate]

saw this elsewhere and i wonder how badly the democrats want to lose this:

He will in many ways be a president without the support of a party, facing a conservative-majority court and a coalition of swing state democrats who are falling over each other to prove to their constituents that they’re not on-board the Sanders train.

[allegro]

Gotta say, I really agree; he coulda just fixed Flint, instead.

[allegro]

[theimage13]

saw this elsewhere and i wonder how badly the democrats want to lose this:

Yeah, and how many CURRENT members of the GOP were trash-talking Trump until he was in power?

If Sanders ends up in the White House, it'll be a clear indication that the party's voters are ready for him, and the smarter people in office will be quick to acknowledge that and get on board.