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Faceplams: I thought it was pretty boring last night all around. Whereas my opinion last time was that there was a very clear (unexpected!) winner, everyone sucked last night.
Alt-Left Leaning Cunt
I thought it was pretty boring last night all around. Whereas my opinion last time was that there was a very clear (unexpected!) winner, everyone sucked last night.
tempus est umbra in mente
It freaks me out when I think about how true this is. I've been waking from anxiety ridden nightmares about it all. Oh my god, if Trump is re-elected with a mandate....Originally Posted by ltrandazzo
Active Member
Two things that I think we can all forget easily b/c of the dread we all feel at another four years of this criminal monster: he won by a grand total of 75,000-ish votes across WI, MI & PA. And then also do not discount the House wave of 2018. Take those two things together and u can extrapolate with some mild confidence that voters are attempting to rebuke this animal that just baaaaaaaarely squeaked by Hillary. And we know Hillary was really unpopular too at that time. So considering all 4 top candidates will be less hated than Hillary was, I tend to calm myself down a bit when I think about these things. And it's not like Trump's gotten any more popular. He has insanely low popularity numbers. Record-breaking. I believe he would be the first president to win re-election w/the kind of numbers he has. Sure it can happen (part. when u factor in their voter suppression tactics), but it's not likely.
And as I've said before, Bernie's entire strategy rests on turning out as much of the 100 million people who stayed home last time. So if he gets the nom & he is successful with this plan, it should be even easier to at least flip those 3 states listed. I'm not thumping my chest with confidence about all this, I just want people to remember the provable things we know so far & not give into the dread.
Last edited by bobbie solo; 01-16-2020 at 11:00 PM.
God is an American
^ Agreed on not giving into dread. The Democrats need someone brave enough to stand up against Trump, and denounce everything that he's been doing in the strongest possible terms, in sustained & unrelenting campaigns for winnable areas in the key parts of those states. They can pull it off, it won't be easy, but there's a damn good chance.
Bite me
I fell asleep.
Active Member
Polls show Trump is trailing democrats in MI and FL.
My whole rationale for voting for Biden in the primary was that he was the most electable, and a recent poll showed that was the case in VA and FL.
But if polls show Sanders can beat Trump at around the same margin as Biden, I'm going with Sanders.
Active Member
Let's stop this stupid fallacy: Biden is not "the most electable". That's a bullshit thing being spewed by people who are either not actually progressive, or are afraid that the only path to the White House is some old centrist white guy. It's total crap and has no basis in reality in this century.
That said, I would also put literally ZERO importance on, or faith in, what polls say. Virtually every poll in the country had Clinton in the White House in 2016. Stop looking at polls. Look at the candidates, decide who you want to see in the office, and vote for them.
Here's a great starting point. 20 questions. It'll give you a nice, neat chart of who aligns with your values. http://washingtonpost.com/graphics/p...grees-with-me/
Active Member
Nate Silver gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning in 2016. Most polls gave Clinton an edge in the swing states that she lost, but they were within the margin of error, sans Ohio. Also, the national polls weren't that off, as Clinton won by nearly 3 million votes.
So yeah, I will continue to look at polls in the swing states and vote accordingly. I want Sanders to be the nominee, but I won't at all hesitate to vote for Biden if he polls the best against Trump in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
Last edited by GulDukat; 01-19-2020 at 09:26 AM.
Active Member
I'm going to paraphrase what you just wrote, by paragraph.
"In 2016, most polls were wrong. Sometimes their wrongness was in the margin of error, but they were still wrong." (By the way, Clinton lost. She's not in the White House. The popular vote doesn't matter in the W/L column. So polls saying she would win were effectively wrong.)
"I want Sanders to win, but I'm going to vote for Biden if a bunch of quite possibly wrong polls in states I don't live in suggest that he might have a better chance of winning months from now."
Sorry, still struggling to figure out your rationale here.
Active Member
Those state polls of toss-up states that had Clinton winning were not wildly off, they were in the margin of error. One can look at polls to get a reasonable idea of where things are going. It's not like they said Clinton was going to win Michigan or PA by 20 points, that's why Silver gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning. Btw, Clinton won the popular vote, so the national polls were not totally off.
If the average of state polls in swing states show Biden has a much better chance of beating Trump than Sanders I will vote for Biden in the MA primary on 3/2. If the average of state polls in the swing states show Sanders has the best chance of beating Trump, I will vote for Sanders. Same with Warren, etc. The fact that I don't live in one of these swing states is totally irrelevant.
If Biden, Warren, Sanders all have the same chance of beating Trump in the swing-states, I will vote for Sanders.
That is how I am choosing to vote. How you vote is up to you.
Last edited by GulDukat; 01-19-2020 at 12:58 PM.
Active Member
If you don't watch this whole thing, Chris Hayes (one of the few MSNBC hosts left that are actually on the left and good/honest at their job) says "vote for who you like the most, don't worry about electability. It's a primary people, this is how you're supposed to vote. It's simple.
Alt-Left Leaning Cunt
Active Member
I'm sure McGovern voters felt the same way in '72. I like Hayes, but don't agree with him on this.
Active Member
very different time. You can't compare old time politics to the landscape now imo. Things are so, so different.
Add Violins
I wonder if Warren or Biden are feeling pretty annoyed with Hillary Clinton right now.
Alt-Left Leaning Cunt
Or thankful that someone finally said it publicly.
Stubby Member
Oh no, not being called "unlikable" by someone who willingly associated with Harvey Weinstein, Jeffery Epstein and bragged about being given Henry Kissinger's blessing.
Throbbing Member
At this point I think being attacked by Hillary Clinton speaks more to your favor than being endorsed by her, and I think a lot of other people feel the same way.
People can think what they will about Sanders but back in 2016 he didn't go nearly as negatively on Clinton as he could have (or, really, should have) - certainly not half as negatively as things got between her and Obama back in 2008. He remained in the race until the convention so his delegates could fight for the most left-leaning platform, and then he campaigned like hell for Clinton to win, doing fourteen events in the first five days. Clinton has only mentioned him since to blame him for her loss or, now, outright dismiss his political career. For people wondering why the "TeamUnity" arguments aren't winning over any Sanders supporters...there you go.
The Clintons have left behind a legacy that should horrify any left-leaning person and I am skeptical of anyone stanning for them and their brand of politics, especially in the year of our lord 2020.
Trollhunter
Bernie handled Hillary’s awfulness very well. She had the DNC screw him over and he STILL campaigned for her. She should sit the rest of this one out.
Meanwhile, Bernie and Warren were photographed at a MLK Day event walking together and looking friendly. I’m certain they both comprehend the importance of putting a weird seemingly contextual mishap behind them for the good of the party. If only rabid Twitter nuts could do the same. I still think the best way to win the election (and the best thing for the country) is for those two to join forces.
Last edited by Swykk; 01-21-2020 at 08:56 PM.
Trollhunter
Right? Her Wall Street and war mongering friends probably don’t like him. Big fucking deal. Omar and Ocasio-Cortez seem to like Bernie just fine. The truth is that he has changed the Democratic Party and the centrist establishment types do not like that.
I think it’s such a gutter move by her to pull this shit but I’m not surprised. She could have easily said she’d support the nominee which is what everyone that doesn’t want Trump to get another four years should be saying.
Active Member
take a bow.
Active Member
Active Member
I don't understand why Clinton would attack Sanders. What's the point? What good will it do? What is she trying to accomplish? Sanders could be the nominee. My money is on Biden, but a Sanders nomination is certainly possible, so don't fuck it up by trashing the guy.
Captain Rustleboots
So Bon Iver is playing a Sanders rally in Iowa next Friday and i'm thinking about making the trip up that direction. Good to know Justin Vernon is on the right side here.
Active Member
Bite me
She said it in a documentary:
Active Member
I think the tweet got deleted? Just shows up blank here, and copy / pasting the link gives me a "that page does not exist" error.
Active Member
Ah. it was just an article about Obama being more worried about Sanders being elected than Trump.
Trollhunter
It’s that centrist fear I was talking about.
Throbbing Member
Many a pundit has puzzled over this exact question, and the only real answer anyone can come up with is that it benefits Hillary personally. She's got a thing coming out, and she's chosen Sanders as a scapegoat for her obvious failings as a political candidate. So, two birds with one stone for her, I guess? Never mind that it's bad for Democrats (all of them, when you consider that Sanders voters may have to be convinced to vote for someone else). Never mind that it's bad for the country by extension. Never mind that she's still blaming others for her loss four years ago. Never mind that she's recreating the conditions of 2016. She's got a fuckin show to promote, people! She really really needs you to know that she's right and it's not her fault.
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