11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[allegro]

Yes, the comment was (unfortunately, ultimately) racist; but it seems obvious that Biden has regular foot-in-mouth old guy problems because his brain isn’t fully engaged. I think what he intended to say was that poor kids are just as smart as rich kids.

Yeah, people can be unwittingly racist. But I think both Joe and Bernie are just overly white old dudes and seemingly live under the false assumption that most blacks live in poverty. Which is NOT true. But they’ve both been in politics in Washington their WHOLE LIVES, insulated in a bullshit world outside of reality. And their brains don’t engage properly half the time.

I am personally for CASH reparations. I get pissed at any candidate who’s against it.

I’m not pro-Biden, I’m just here for the discussion.

I think Elizabeth Warren is the ONLY candidate who really “gets” it.

And she’s surging in the polls.

[versusreality]

well, what about this?

[Jinsai]

I still can’t help but feel like we are being duped when it comes to Biden’s popularity. Everyone who “likes” him is coming from a pragmatic strategy point, and it feels like that part in Return of the Jedi where none of the rebels knew they were being fed fake intel, and that the Death Star is actually fully operational, and I don’t see Trump picking up McConnell and throwing him down the chute.

I think this sucks and we are fucked if we don’t realize it in time. Biden is NOT the safe bet. It’s a trap.

[Demogorgon]

See, we CAN agree on some things.

[ltrandazzo]

Guys, I get the need to call out the gaffes, but can we do so without linking to Glenn Beck's news site?

Also, Joe Biden is the "woke" grandfather who stills refers to Asian people as the o-word because no one ever corrected him. Or they did and it never set in because he thought he was still being inclusive.

[sweeterthan]

Yes! Fuck Glenn beck!

[versusreality]

did research after your post, had no idea who Glen Beck was, sorry. fuck him.

the clip is on other channels too, that's just the first one I came across so posted. apologies.

[ltrandazzo]

did research after your post, had no idea who Glen Beck was, sorry. fuck him.

the clip is on other channels too, that's just the first one I came across so posted. apologies.

No worries. This is one of the many problems with YouTube.

[theimage13]

Yes, the comment was (unfortunately, ultimately) racist; but it seems obvious that Biden has regular foot-in-mouth old guy problems because his brain isn’t fully engaged. I think what he intended to say was that poor kids are just as smart as rich kids.

Yeah, people can be unwittingly racist. But I think both Joe and Bernie are just overly white old dudes and seemingly live under the false assumption that most blacks live in poverty. Which is NOT true. But they’ve both been in politics in Washington their WHOLE LIVES, insulated in a bullshit world outside of reality.

Along those lines: as a personal awareness activity, I like to encourage people to take this themselves and share with friends / family. There's a lot of racism in the country that isn't somebody openly screaming "I hate black people!" , but still manifests itself in subtle ways that we often don't even realize. I have, on more than one occasion, found myself realizing this bias as it's occurring. It's not a conscious thing and frankly I hate that it happens. But I've found that recognizing and acknowledging those subtle little things is the first step in making them go away, and it's gotten much, much less frequent since I identified the problem.

Sorry, drift.

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/

[bobbie solo]

Unfortunately I believe this as well. Biden's major running point is "I can beat Trump", and at this point I think a lot of people are going to gravitate to that tepid middle ground out of fear that going "too radical" will help Trump win. However, I tend to think running another center-hewing Democrat like Biden and Clinton before him would basically guarantee a 2nd term for Trump.

Trump didn't win because he outperformed previous Republicans by huge margins - really, that election was more about the votes Clinton DIDN'T get as opposed to the votes Trump got. It was about the people who didn't vote. Racist voter suppression laws in red states obviously played a huge part but it went beyond that. Huge swaths of the country didn't vote and caused Clinton to underperform in crucial areas, because 1) Clinton was a milquetoast centrist whose support was basically defined by opposition to her rival ("she's better than Trump" was the main motivator, not thinking Clinton would do the job to your liking), who took her support in the places she needed as a given, and 2) Clinton's campaign did a better job convincing people Trump had no chance of winning than convincing them that they should/needed to vote for her, which resulted in a lot of people just staying home and not casting a vote. Trump fatigue will help Biden get around that second point, but the first point still stands for him, and after his awful debate performances and numerous moronic statements this early into the election cycle, I am bewildered by anyone who thinks he is the "safest" choice. The stale centrism he represents failed catastrophically in 2016 and yet the Democratic machine is poised to rally behind him dutifully because they have learned nothing. They would rather lose to fascism while tsk-tsking the electorate for not embracing their lazy mediocrity than move an inch left and risk compromising the Democratic party hierarchy and its institutional power and privilege. Nancy Pelosi's recent conduct perfectly exemplifies this, from abdicating her constitutional duty to impeach in favor of banking it all on voting him out in 2020, to going more scorched-earth against leftist members of her own party like the Squad (the people who represent actual values, who represent the future of their party) than the vile scumbags trying to destroy every mechanism we have to save our country.

I just could not be more discouraged by Democratic "leadership" in these past four years. They are the only realistic option for political opposition we have, and instead of rising to meet the awful tide of the Trump-era, they are - yet again - banking on the non-existent standards of the Republican party to squeeze by the least desirable candidate possible. They are again leveraging the desperation of the electorate in another "lesser of two evils" choice, even after doing so in 2016 went so disastrously wrong. And before anyone says it, yes, Biden is far, far, FAR less evil than Trump and if I need to, I'll vote for the white-toothed dingus. I just feel he is the opposite of the "safe" candidate that they are marketing him as.

Best post of the whole past few pages and I didn't want it to go un-acknowledged. This perfectly captures 2016 and the core problem that the Dem party structure currently has/is resisting doing anything about.

You want to win easily in 2020? Push the party left with a candidate like Warren or Bernie and inspire many, many people that stayed home last time as well as new voters. That last part is literally the most important part of Bernie's campaign. He talks about it all the time. Stop chasing assholes in the middle. Work hard to contact, register and inspire new people.

[Wretchedest]

Biden *will* get the nomination. Sanders and Warren split to lose. Get ready to swallow that pill now

[versusreality]

I'm close to almost thinking that Trump will beat Biden, too. and it really sucks.

[M1ke]

I'm close to almost thinking that Trump will beat Biden, too. and it really sucks.

Biden's got flaws that Trump will point to and set up a false equivalency. This could easily turn his campaign into Trump VS another false equivalency. He demonized Hillary during the 2016 election and somehow convinced people she was worse than him. Could that playbook be effective against Biden too?

But, I think sexism allowed that playbook to work against Hillary in 2016. That's a factor that could work against Warren too.

Warren is a far less flawed candidate that Biden is, and it's unclear whether or not he'd be able to successfully set-up a false equivalency and make her look bad or not. I would rather see Warren in the White House. Sexism exists though, and while I think Biden has more flaws, I think his privilege will allow his flaws to be overlooked where they wouldn't be with Warren. although the criticisms of her are fewer and less significant in my opinion.

Hillary had a false equivalency working against her, plus sexism making that false equivalency effective. Biden's got a false equivalency working against him, but without sexism to play into it, I don't think it'll be effective outside Trump's base (which will vote for him no matter what).

I think Biden can win VS Trump.

If you want to make a moral stand, run Warren. I think she's the best candidate, the most qualified to be president, and the one I want to see win.

But if you want to win, run Biden. The false equivalency won't matter because he's an old white dude, he'll get a pass.

[versusreality]

Warren would toast Trump in a debate, and wouldn't take his shit. I can see Biden stumbling over his words, getting facts wrong, and Trump pouncing on him.

[allegro]

Biden *will* get the nomination. Sanders and Warren split to lose. Get ready to swallow that pill now

WAY too early to tell.

Warren won in Massachusetts in 2012 over a REALLY popular guy, and it was a slow burn campaign but she totally blasted it at the end.

Do NOT count her out.

WAY WAY WAY too early.

Here’s the thing about the 2020 election:

It’s NOT the 2016 election.

There are already a lot of Republican voters saying they will NOT be voting for Trump.

Also, there are a lot of polls basically showing that ANY Democratic candidate will beat Trump.

Trump’s “base” is 38% of Republicans. Republicans are only about 38% of the COUNTRY.

First term, people voted for him because they didn’t know anything about him.

Now they do.


Also, smart voters know that NO PRESIDENT passes legislation.

So voters could vote in the electrified corpse of Leon Trotsky and it won’t mean shit because ONLY CONGRESS LEGISLATES.

[GulDukat]

Scott Brown was a fluke. Good riddence to him and his truck.

[allegro]

Scott Brown was a fluke. Good riddence to him and his truck.

But he was the incumbent. She kicked his ass.

Here’s what Liz says:



But I think Meghan McCain is correct about the media PROMOTING MALE BIAS.

[GulDukat]

And the he went to New Hampshire and got his ass kicked again.

[Wretchedest]

WAY too early to tell.

Warren won in Massachusetts in 2012 over a REALLY popular guy, and it was a slow burn campaign but she totally blasted it at the end.

Do NOT count her out.

WAY WAY WAY too early.

Here’s the thing about the 2020 election:

It’s NOT the 2016 election.

There are already a lot of Republican voters saying they will NOT be voting for Trump.

Also, there are a lot of polls basically showing that ANY Democratic candidate will beat Trump.

Trump’s “base” is 38% of Republicans. Republicans are only about 38% of the COUNTRY.

First term, people voted for him because they didn’t know anything about him.

Now they do.


Also, smart voters know that NO PRESIDENT passes legislation.

So voters could vote in the electrified corpse of Leon Trotsky and it won’t mean shit because ONLY CONGRESS LEGISLATES.

It's just math. Biden has no competition as a moderate, Warren and Sanders split there votes. Look at any poll: the *sum* of Warren and Sanders is more than Biden. But on there own they're just above *half* of Biden. One of them needs to concede if we want a progressive candidate. As much as I support Warren, better her, because she doesn't poll as well against trump

[allegro]

It's just math. Biden has no competition as a moderate, Warren and Sanders split there votes. Look at any poll: the *sum* of Warren and Sanders is more than Biden. But on there own they're just above *half* of Biden. One of them needs to concede if we want a progressive candidate. As much as I support Warren, better her, because she doesn't poll as well against trump

The Iowa Caucuses aren’t until February 3rd.

I just don’t totally trust polls regarding Democrats at this point. Most are polling on land lines. You know who still has land lines? Old people. The people most likely to answer “Biden” in polls. But Biden and Warren haven’t even been on the same debate stage together, at this point.

I’m still pissed at Sanders for running after Warren had already announced her candidacy. Selfish and shitty.

[Jinsai]

Trump’s gaffes are worse than Biden’s but not on a level that is obvious to his base, or even the general voter. Trump demonstrates that he has no idea what the nuclear triad is, and we should all scream in horror but we don’t, because the average voter doesn’t know either. He calls himself “tariff man” and then doesn’t seem to get how tariffs work (or is at best willfully misrepresenting the way they work) and... meh

Biden says “poor kids are just as bright as white kids” and... oh dear

[Swykk]

I acknowledge I’m a jerk for saying this (in my defense it was always going to happen no matter what) but a recession will help defeat Trump. It’s one of the few things Bill Maher is right about these days. Trump’s trying to deflect and maybe that’ll work with the stupid part of his base but the greedy portion? Not so much I’d imagine.

[theimage13]

I acknowledge I’m a jerk for saying this (in my defense it was always going to happen no matter what) but a recession will help defeat Trump. It’s one of the few things Bill Maher is right about these days. Trump’s trying to deflect and maybe that’ll work with the stupid part of his base but the greedy portion? Not so much I’d imagine.

Do you really think so? I think all he has to say is "this is just because the markets are scared a Democrat might win" and his base will 100% believe him. Nevermind the fact that historically, the Dow has performed better under democratic presidents.

At this point, I honest to god believe that nothing - and I mean NOTHING - will stop his base from voting for him. Couple that with the fact that many of the states giving him the necessary EC votes are gerrymandered and the entire election is under attack by foreign nations, and I think you'll have a repeat of 2016. Democrats will win the popular vote; Trump will win the electorate. Probably not by the same margin, but something so infuriatingly small that it'll hurt even more than 2016 did.

[versusreality]

Do you really think so? I think all he has to say is "this is just because the markets are scared a Democrat might win" and his base will 100% believe him. Nevermind the fact that historically, the Dow has performed better under democratic presidents.

At this point, I honest to god believe that nothing - and I mean NOTHING - will stop his base from voting for him. Couple that with the fact that many of the states giving him the necessary EC votes are gerrymandered and the entire election is under attack by foreign nations, and I think you'll have a repeat of 2016. Democrats will win the popular vote; Trump will win the electorate. Probably not by the same margin, but something so infuriatingly small that it'll hurt even more than 2016 did.

I sadly see this happening

[Swykk]

Do you really think so? I think all he has to say is "this is just because the markets are scared a Democrat might win" and his base will 100% believe him. Nevermind the fact that historically, the Dow has performed better under democratic presidents.

At this point, I honest to god believe that nothing - and I mean NOTHING - will stop his base from voting for him. Couple that with the fact that many of the states giving him the necessary EC votes are gerrymandered and the entire election is under attack by foreign nations, and I think you'll have a repeat of 2016. Democrats will win the popular vote; Trump will win the electorate. Probably not by the same margin, but something so infuriatingly small that it'll hurt even more than 2016 did.

You could easily be right. I think the average idiot with six teeth MAGA chud will definitely buy that. I’m wondering if the greedy portion of his base will, though.

[allegro]

Do you really think so? I think all he has to say is "this is just because the markets are scared a Democrat might win" and his base will 100% believe him. Nevermind the fact that historically, the Dow has performed better under democratic presidents.

Trump’s base is only about 38% of voters.

The rest of the 2016 voters were mostly Independents with some GOP.

He CANNOT count on those voters for a repeat. They won’t give him the benefit of the doubt this time.

Even if the Democratic candidate isn’t “exciting.”

They’ll simply skip the Presidential portion of the ballot, or do a write-in.

[Jinsai]

it is still terrifying to me to consider that 38% of the voting population is firmly in his "base." We're in Texas right now, and we've chatted around... we've met some people who are still saying that they think he'd be better than Clinton (for whatever reason), but they don't feel that way about really anybody else. Lifelong republicans, even those who still think that Clinton was worse; they hate him and where this is going.

I honestly think even Trump is realizing he has no chance of winning this.

[allegro]

we've met some people who are still saying that they think he'd be better than Clinton (for whatever reason)

Even though Congress was controlled by Republicans for two years, and ANYTHING Clinton did would have been blocked by Congress.

Honestly, these people are just handicapped-level stupid.

My husband has rabid pro-Trump relatives on Facebook who work him up and I finally told him I don’t want to hear about that shit, because it’s like hearing about brain-dead people trying to do a triathlon. It’s not entertaining, and it’s useless trying to have a discussion with them, they’re SERIOUSLY STUPID. Like can’t-be-fixed stupid.

Everything is about Hispanics “INVADING” or babies being MURDERED and Trump’s on the case and he’s been sent by Jesus as their personal Savior.

One of these FB relatives (wife of his cousin) is in rural Michigan, where there are ZERO Hispanics let alone immigrants (or illegal immigrants), but she’s up all night worrying about illegal immigrant child trafficking murderers invading. Fox News has convinced her it’s an imminent threat.

Meanwhile, my husband asked her if Trump has done anything for HER; like, has SHE gotten a raise? She said she makes $11 / hour and hasn’t gotten a raise in nearly TWELVE YEARS.

Guess where she works: Walmart.

Twitter is filled with these morons (and bots) saying that college education is a secret plot to produce more liberals.

Of course, they desire the opposite (stupid breeds more of them).

[Jinsai]

One of these FB relatives (wife of his cousin) is in rural Michigan, where there are ZERO Hispanics let alone immigrants (or illegal immigrants), but she’s up all night worrying about illegal immigrant child trafficking murderers invading. Fox News has convinced her it’s an imminent threat.

This is eerily close to a description of my mother in law.

[Demogorgon]

it is still terrifying to me to consider that 38% of the voting population is firmly in his "base." We're in Texas right now, and we've chatted around... we've met some people who are still saying that they think he'd be better than Clinton (for whatever reason), but they don't feel that way about really anybody else. Lifelong republicans, even those who still think that Clinton was worse; they hate him and where this is going.

I honestly think even Trump is realizing he has no chance of winning this.

Here in Ohio, Trump signs are EVERYWHERE. Regardless of who our representatives are, if you went from one end of the state to the other, I can almost guarantee that you would find an overwhelming amount of support for him. Battleground states like this and Pennsylvania are going to be the deciders of 2020, and right now, it looks like it's going to be dirty, nasty slog. The equivalent of political trench warfare. Hell, you ask anybody around here who someone like Beto O'Rourke is and they have no clue. They're totally disconnected from the national arguments and they don't care.