11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[Deacon Blackfire]

Would the adults in the room be less inclined to cry "conspiracy theory" at claims that the IDP's official numbers are wrong if the New York Times reported on the caucus results being riddled with errors? Because here's the New York Times reporting on the caucus results being riddled with errors. For example, as @neorev already (correctly) noted, one district gave Warren's delegates to Steyer (???) and Sanders delegates to Deval Patrick (?!?!).

Now Perez has officially called for a recanvass but reports suggest this step was taken "specifically because of issues around how the Iowa Dem Party was allocating state delegate equivalents from satellite caucus sites" (which Sanders dominated if early reports are to be believed) - Buttigieg's campaign is claiming "the party (had) not followed rules set out by the delegate selection plan" and gave Sanders too many SDEs. This mess is far from over. Frankly I hope the press and random people from Twitter keep scrutinizing these results because without them it's hard to say that the IDP wouldn't have stood behind the incorrect results. And look, I get that Sanders has a fervid, extremely paranoid online following that can be really obnoxious but that doesn't make hand-waving dismissals of their legitimate concerns okay.

each day that goes by, I see Bloomberg somehow becoming the nominee. don't know why. just a feeling.

I've come to feel like this is a way bigger, more probable threat than any other in this primary season. With so many candidates, the possibility of none of the candidates reaching the delegate threshold before the convention is far from unlikely and Bloomberg is absolutely in this to steal the nomination there. If Sanders enters the convention as the front-runner but without the delegates needed to clinch the nomination, it's very likely the Democrats rally around Bloomberg as their emergency exit. It would basically guarantee a depressed voter turnout in November and Trump's reelection but at this point I really feel like some of the most influential people in the Democratic party would rather lose with Bloomberg and blame the left for not voting for him than potentially win with Sanders. I don't see them going that scorched-earth if it ends up being Warren, but all bets are off if it's Sanders.

[cdm]

...but that doesn't make hand-waving dismissals of their legitimate concerns okay.

No one is dismissing the concerns. The concerns are legitimate because the state has botched the count due to a mix of carelessness, incompetence, and technical failures.

What isn't legitimate are the cries that the process is rigged against one candidate or another. The claims are unfounded and nothing more than pissing and moaning because the results aren't what they'd hoped. If (royal) you truly believe it's fixed ask yourself this: how the fuck could the DNC, a committee that does not run the state caucus, conspire against a specific candidate by way of a state committee that can't even count ballots correctly without anyone blowing the whistle? No part of that passes the smell test.

[Deacon Blackfire]

Agreed, the DNC didn't run the Iowa mess, and while there are questionable ties between IDP officials and Acronym / Shadow Inc, there is no evidence of intentional rigging. Still a lot of questions here that need answers, though, and whatever the results end up being, Buttigieg declaring victory with 0% reporting was slimy as fuck, a pretty overt attempt to commandeer the momentum out of Iowa, and I hope it taints his campaign in the long run.

[allegate]

:lol

[cdm]

Buttigieg declaring victory with 0% reporting was slimy as fuck, a pretty overt attempt to commandeer the momentum out of Iowa, and I hope it taints his campaign in the long run.

You’re not wrong that it’s a slimy look but let’s face it, all candidates angle and maneuver trying to get out in front of a story or guide the narrative. He tried to control the news cycle and the orgs let him do it. To me that looked like a candidate overconfident in what his ground team was telling mission control while not expecting a days-long delay in reporting. Gross, yes, but I don’t buy nefarious.

[cdm]

Not to belabor the point but another question for all the tin foil hats: if you are going to rig a primary why would you pick a caucus: the most transparent method of casting your vote? Everyone in that room knows who voted for who, maybe not by name but they’d know if there were a discrepancy between the numbers announced in the room and the numbers reported. How would anyone expect to get away with that without conspiring with literally every official in the room? How would the candidate reps not notice? It makes literally no sense, even before you consider it’s the lone event opening a primary season.

[neorev]

Not to belabor the point but another question for all the tin foil hats: if you are going to rig a primary why would you pick a caucus: the most transparent method of casting your vote? Everyone in that room knows who voted for who, maybe not by name but they’d know if there were a discrepancy between the numbers announced in the room and the numbers reported. How would anyone expect to get away with that without conspiring with literally every official in the room? How would the candidate reps not notice? It makes literally no sense, even before you consider it’s the lone event opening a primary season.

It's more about ruining the momentum Bernie would have gotten. All the news does is tell us how Bernie cannot win, yet here we are. If all went smoothly and Bernie was able to celebrate an Iowa win normally, it would be a big moment for him and for voters taking him seriously. Now the press is more focused on the mess than saying how well Bernie did. Many people think Pete won it flat out, which will give him a boost in other caucuses. It was a load bullshit for him to celebrate victory with 0% of the vote in. And now, by the time we get the full results, people won't care anymore. And even if Bernie wins it, many think Pete won it. Why? Because he said it on the news for all to hear/see. Anything to keep Bernie's name and his success out of the public eye. They pulled this kind of crap during 2016, when the news would rather show an empty Trump podium for an hour than show Bernie talk. Sadly, for a good chunk of the population, the mainstream news is where they get their news from. All it does is demonize Bernie and shrugs away any success he has.

Luckily, Iowa is working on in Bernie's favor.

Majority of Democratic Voters 'More Likely' to Vote for Bernie Sanders After Iowa Caucuses: New Poll

https://www.newsweek.com/majority-de...qezBl8vMKIqpG4

[cdm]

What momentum? He’s a human hair away from a literal tie in Iowa, the exact same place he’d be in had everything gone smoothly. Did Pete get a days worth of tire-pumping? Yeah sure, but it’s not as if he didn’t turn out the voters. Don’t get me wrong here: Pete is not in my top five but this constant victimhood complex with Bernie supporters is really fucking tiresome.

Also this:

[allegro]

I’d like to add some relative historical perspective from the 1968 Democratic primary:

[neorev]

What momentum? He’s a human hair away from a literal tie in Iowa, the exact same place he’d be in had everything gone smoothly. Did Pete get a days worth of tire-pumping? Yeah sure, but it’s not as if he didn’t turn out the voters. Don’t get me wrong here: Pete is not in my top five but this constant victimhood complex with Bernie supporters is really fucking tiresome.

Also this:

It is not victimhood, it is common sense. The numbers coming out on time and Bernie possibly outright winning Iowa and it being all over the news will be a huge boost for him outside his core followers. The momentum going from Iowa to future caucuses. A win in Iowa legitimizes Bernie even more in the public eye, especially those who haven't decided who they're voting for yet. It is known that there are voters out there who vote for the person they see is winning in the news. It's all about the optics. By the time the complete results for Iowa come in, even if Bernie wins, no one is gonna care anymore. His chance to celebrate is gone. It's about reaching more voters. The only ones paying attention right now are those who actually care about the candidate. The lackadaisical voter has moved on to the next crap the MSM is shoving down their throats. Either way, by the time the results come in, most have moved on.

During Iowa, I had to watch Chris Matthews babble on like a whino about he hates the whole field and "Bernie cannot win." Seriously, you don't see how the media paints Bernie on a daily basis? You don't think it's done on purpose? Bernie is the one thing that Fox News, CNN, and NBC unite against.

[neorev]

Apparently 100% results in...

Pete 564.012
Bernie 562.497

In the end, they look to be getting 11 delegates each. More importantly, Bernie beat him by 6,000 in popular vote.

At the same time, this story from 2 hours ago on NBC says there are still multiple errors...

"The Decision Desk said it identified at least 77 precincts, or 4.5 percent, where the total votes for what is known as "reallocated candidate preference" is greater than the total votes for "initial candidate preference" — a difference that makes no sense."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ncies-n1132011

[cdm]

The numbers coming out on time and Bernie possibly outright winning Iowa and it being all over the news will be a huge boost for him outside his core followers.

Except he didn't win outright...they tied. Ask President Hillary how much the popular vote means when you're in the business of collecting delegates.

Pete will see a jump from Biden voters defecting after his abysmal Iowa numbers but he's polling terribly (rightly so) in a lot of upcoming states so any 'momentum' will be short lived. Bernie will be fine going forward.

[allegate]

[Swykk]

This is super helpful, Hillary. Unity and what not, amirite? These centrists are so frightened by what their party is becoming. It’s weird that she’s not criticizing Warren’s similar policy plans.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/polit...oon/index.html

[allegate]

Much as they need to stop interviewing Republican goons, they need to stop interviewing her.

[allegro]

This is super helpful, Hillary. Unity and what not, amirite? These centrists are so frightened by what their party is becoming. It’s weird that she’s not criticizing Warren’s similar policy plans.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/polit...oon/index.html

They don’t like Bernie because he’s not a Democrat when he’s not running for President, and neither are a lot of his voters.

The problem with that is that a lot of voters are Independents.

I’m not a Democrat, I’m an Independent.

Sure, Dems can’t specifically target Independents but, Jesus Christ, don’t OSTRACIZE them. You NEED them.

[neorev]

They don’t like Bernie because he’s not a Democrat when he’s not running for President, and neither are a lot of his voters.

The problem with that is that a lot of voters are Independents.

I’m not a Democrat, I’m an Independent.

Sure, Dems can’t specifically target Independents but, Jesus Christ, don’t OSTRACIZE them. You NEED them.

"Nearly four-in-ten U.S. adults (38%) identify as politically independent, but most “lean” toward one of the two major parties. Only 7% of Americans overall don’t express a partisan leaning, while 13% lean toward the Republican Party and 17% lean toward the Democratic Party."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-independents/

Fuck yea, they need em.

Another little thing,
I have met a few of what you would call "classic Republicans," not the crazy ones, who would vote for Bernie over Trump. Back in 2016, if Bernie was the nominee, they even said that they would've voted for him, but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Hillary was chasing Republicans back in 2016, yet it seems it was Bernie who would've gotten their vote.

[allegro]

Some classic Republicans told me they’d vote for Biden. So there’s that, too.

Unsettling New Theory: There is No Swing Voter

[allegate]

could he lose the military vote?

[allegate]

[allegate]

An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

[allegro]

An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

Yeah, I posted that above, I totally agree with her about VOTER TURNOUT deciding elections.

Debate last night, I think Sanders and Klobuchar did really well. Yang got in a few really good points. Buttigieg got in one really good point about Afghanistan. Biden didn’t do well, he’s looking more and more tired and not in total control of his thoughts. Steyer, bleh. Warren never (or rarely) looks up from her notes at other candidates, whereas the others seem to engage with the others. A few (more than just Warren) want to codify Roe, which sounds nice but won’t happen (states rights plus not likely enough support in Congress, yet).

[allegate]

Yeah, I posted that above, I totally agree with her about VOTER TURNOUT deciding elections.

Debate last night, I think Sanders and Klobuchar did really well. Yang got in a few really good points. Buttigieg got in one really good point about Afghanistan. Biden didn’t do well, he’s looking more and more tired and not in total control of his thoughts. Steyer, bleh. Warren never (or rarely) looks up from her notes at other candidates, whereas the others seem to engage with the others. A few (more than just Warren) want to codify Roe, which sounds nice but won’t happen (states rights plus not likely enough support in Congress, yet).

huh. with the same title even. :lol

my bad.

[neorev]

https://twitter.com/CPDAction/status...404186112?s=19

[theimage13]

@allegro for President

edit: or Congress. Or Senate. Or SCOTUS.

[allegro]

@allegro for President

edit: or Congress. Or Senate. Or SCOTUS.

Lol thanks. SCOTUS would cost me about another $150K in student loans and then double that much, at least, in greased palms. I’d be dead, first.

[Jinsai]

new criticism of Buttigeg is coming from Sanders supporters, and it gets weird.

I don't fucking care I just want no more president Trump. So right now, fuck you Sanders. Your supporters are offputting.

[allegro]

I get stanning for your own candidate. Cool cool.

But being REALLY mean trolling in the Twitter and IG accounts of the other candidates and their supporters, so people have to switch their Twitter accounts to Private overnight so that opposition trolls don’t completely trash their Twitter timelines?

That’s right out the Trump MAGA playbook.

[cdm]

That’s right out the Trump MAGA playbook.

Bingo. It’s disgusting.

[neorev]