11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[Deacon Blackfire]

RE: it taking Hervis Rogers 7 hours to get to vote, it's so fucked up that our citizens have to go through that shit just to exercise their constitutional right.

Warren dropping out would not help bring in Black voters. I think instead of obsessing over her that camp should strategize about how to do that. Because that’s who any candidate needs to appeal to - that’s the base.

This is all of course really informal but I’ve been keeping an eye on discussions re: Black voters preferring Biden and the major recurring themes seem to be:

Name recognition
Trust (this one surprised me!) and distrust of the other options
A return to Obama-era policies & normalcy
He will improve what they started with ACA
Relatable

You make a good point. Considering how predominantly white the Warren bloc has been, her supporters (or at least a portion of them) moving to Sanders doesn't help him much in that department.

Also this assumption that the vast majority of Warren will go to Sanders I think is not reality. I can see it being a bit over half, 55 - 60% but not the 98% they seem to think it will be.

Your sense of this is similar to mine - a little more than half of her support would probably flop to Sanders, with a smaller but still relevant chunk probably going for Biden.

But at this point, forget her effect on Sanders - her staying in doesn't help her either. She hasn't won a single state, or even placed above third, including an embarrassing loss in her home state. She has nothing to gain by limping to the convention with a few dozen delegates.

Sanders has made inroads with the black community since 2016 - recently polling ahead of Biden among African American voters nationally - but he still has a lot of work to do on that front and I'm not surprised that Biden retained a lot of his strength with them. The man's tenure as Vice President to the nation's first black President has played a much bigger role in his public image over the past decade than his (generally awful) legislative record in the preceding decades. The other big story here, in my opinion, is the media's utter failure in covering Biden and carrying water for his campaign's ludicrous "I'm the safest and most electable" nonsense. Exit polls show electability was a huge issue for voters, so it would seem that opposing campaigns and the media were successful in painting Sanders campaign as risky and uncertain when it comes to beating Trump. Which is sad because I have little to no expectation that Biden can win.

Given how soft the media has been on Biden (that Mandela lie was barely a blip on the mainstream news) and the degree to which his campaign has tried to pass itself off as something it isn't, Sanders' best option at this point is broadcasting, as loudly and clearly as possible through any means available, the massive gulf between Biden's friendly public image and his awful record / plans for the presidency. It will be an uphill battle, but having only one target has potential to give the campaign focus. It's not over and I'm not giving up.

the snake emoji shit make Berners look unhinged. All that time spent shitposting can be better used having a conversation with somebody about Bernie's ideas. Liz supporters are human beings, if you want to fight for the rights of Liz supporters then a great place to start is by acknowledging their humanity and dignity and quit being a dick on twitter.

While I understand the rage and frustration behind this corner of Sanders' supporters, I will be the first to admit that they are often too aggressive and scathing for their own good. But if snake emojis on Twitter influence someone's choice of candidate more than, say, trying to stop people from dying because they can't afford healthcare, they are as privileged as the Bernie dead-enders who sat out the general in 2016.

[Demogorgon]

Sanders' best option at this point is broadcasting, as loudly and clearly as possible through any means available, the massive gulf between Biden's friendly public image and his awful record / plans for the presidency.

The risk here though is in damaging Biden in such a way that, if Biden does end up getting the nomination, he'll look even more tainted and less capable of beating Trump, thus setting a weighty hammer to voter enthusiasm. This plan has way too much of a chance of blowing up in Bernie's face.

[Magtig]

The risk here though is in damaging Biden in such a way that, if Biden does end up getting the nomination, he'll look even more tainted and less capable of beating Trump, thus setting a weighty hammer to voter enthusiasm. This plan has way too much of a chance of blowing up in Bernie's face.

While there is some risk here, I really don't think Republicans are going to attack Joe for not being liberal enough. They're going to go gangbusters on Burisma, Ukraine, and nepotism. Or corruption, in short.

What I do not see is any way for Bernie to actually capture the nomination. Even if Warren dropped out and signed on as his VP, it still seems incredibly unlikely.

This might be a good thing. Sanders was relying heavily on young voters, who have simply not turned out. Better for that to happen now than in the general.

[allegate]

That's probably $4.9 billion more dollars than Trump actually has.

I feel like you're over-estimating the decimal point location.

[allegro]

Biden’s slip re Mandela was a simple slip; it was apartheid South Africa. Biden’s ability to articulate, to speak clearly and immediately, is actually affected by a number of issues, one of them being his speech disorder and the other being his age and the occasional inability to articulate exactly what he’s thinking. That doesn’t necessarily = lie. He’s fully aware that a lie will bite you on the ass.

Black people were fully aware of this Mandela story, and clearly sent a message: They don’t give a shit. White people making a big deal about it are using the Trump playbook to fuck over black peoples’ choice. Polls don’t mean shit. Votes matter. Black people are voting for Biden. White people need to respect that. White women, who've been largely blamed for bringing us Trump in 2016, are now also being credited for backing black voters in SC and on ST. And I don't expect this to change.

[allegro]

Look at this shit. This is a special kind of stupid. This is sexist stupid.

[Demogorgon]

So... this guy is saying that, Warren being good at debates was a deliberate strategy to defeat Bernie? Because if so, that... that is really dumb.

[allegro]

So... this guy is saying that, Warren being good at debates was a deliberate strategy to defeat Bernie? Because if so, that... that is really dumb.

Yeah, it's a CONSPIRACY! She's just there to MAKE BERNIE LOSE! Or, something.

(Never mind that the reason why BLOOMBERG entered the race was to make Bernie lose. You don't see too many snake emoji's directed at Bloomberg.)

[Demogorgon]

And here i thought the Bloomberg/Hillary shell game was the dumbest conspiracy i was going to hear this season.

[Swykk]

Look at this shit. This is a special kind of stupid. This is sexist stupid.

Yeah, Bernie or Bust people really piss me off too but they’re a minority. It shouldn’t be a reason to not support the progressive candidate still in the race.

Bloomberg is Bizarro Trump and Warren’s takedown was awesome. Maybe the best debate moment of the year.

[allegro]

RE: it taking Hervis Rogers 7 hours to get to vote, it's so fucked up that our citizens have to go through that shit just to exercise their constitutional right.

Totally true, and this is because the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the Voters Rights Act.

https://www.businessinsider.com/this...g-lines-2020-3

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...te/4952084002/

https://www.motherjones.com/politics...ng-rights-act/

[botley]

Warren could take her already-pledged delegate counts as an excellent third-place showing, and endorse Sanders immediately (setting aside for one moment her account of "Bernie said a woman wouldn't win"... even if it's true that he said something as ridiculous as that to her in private, which he denies, I feel that is no reason to hold a grudge between them for the sake of perhaps handing the nomination to Biden). The results of the primaries where voter suppression apparently went down will doubtless be contested, and having two progressive voices onside will strengthen the party's resolve to actually fucking do something about it.

[allegro]

She has relatively few pledged delegates, but they don’t automatically go to anybody besides her. Nothing will happen with her delegates until the convention. She doesn’t have a third-place showing; she’s fourth. After Bloomberg.

Voter suppression won’t be contested in this case because there’s no way to contest it, except to sue and there’s no time for that. There’s no Federal agency to contest it TO, anymore. Each state handles its own election process, because we are a Republic. The VRA was overturned, so the Feds no longer oversee voting sites, etc. It didn’t affect any particular candidate; it affected ALL the candidates. And, it’s obvious that voter suppression did not WORK, because voter turnout surpassed all prior turnout since 2008. People went through hell and high water to vote.

In the case of California, where Democrats are running the state and the voting apparatus, it’s just bad planning. They converted to voting centers, but not nearly enough centers, or machines, or staff. Ditto for Texas, except Republicans run Texas.

The only way for the Federal Government to intervene re voter suppression in state elections is for Congress to re-enact the VRA.

[botley]

You're right of course, and that's what I mean about having the progressives on side. Congress will follow the Dem party leadership if they make reinstating the VRA a priority, and I don't see Biden pushing for that. What count are you seeing putting Bloomberg with more pledged delegates than Warren?

[Magnetic]

I'll leave this here.
Posted from a friend who shared this from someone else. It's very valid.

I’m really tired of seeing Democrats that are disappointed with the options left complaining about the establishment etc. etc. Before you abandon all hope and just give up, please remember:
1. You're not just voting for President.
2. You're voting for who replaces RBG on the Supreme Court.
3. You're voting for the next Secretary of Education.
4. You're voting for federal judges.
5. You're voting for the rule of law.
6. You're voting for saving national parks.
7. You're voting for letting kids out of cages.
8. You're voting for clean air and clean water.
9. You're voting for scientists to be allowed to speak about climate change and for rebuilding the CDC.
10. You're voting for what a President says and does on Twitter.
11. You're voting for housing rights.
12. You're voting for LGBTQ people to be treated with dignity.
13. You're voting for sensible gun laws.
14. You're voting for Dreamers.
15. You're voting so that there will be Social Security and Medicare when you retire.
16. You're voting for veterans to get the care they deserve.
17. You're voting for rural hospitals.
18. You're voting so that someone else can have health insurance.
19. You're voting for the preservation of PBS.
20. You're voting to have a President who doesn't embarrass this country every time she or he attends an international meeting.
21. And you're voting against allowing the USA to become yet another authoritarian regime.


No Democrat is perfect.
Your first AND second choices may have dropped out. Your third might. But the nominee, no matter who she or he is, won't be perfect. They won't pass your purity test. And yet every single one of them will be better than four more years of Trump!!!
Please be reasonable. Keep fighting. This country is worth it.

[cdm]

2. You're voting for who replaces RBG on the Supreme Court.

#2 is so ridiculously important. Not quite as important now that the court is 4-5 but 3-6 would be even tougher to overcome in later years without drastic measures.

[cdm]

[october_midnight]

Essentially locking in Biden's victory, bah.

[Sarah K]

Glad we were able to narrow the field down to a group of sexist old white dudes. On both sides. Again.

[sweeterthan]

Ugh! Oh well. I guess. I’m so disenchanted with our political system right now.


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[tony.parente]

She'll be an excellent vice president and a fantastic future president.

[Mantra]

If she gets VP, she'll be vacating her senate seat in MA, which currently has a Republican governor, as does Vermont. So if Bernie/Lizzie win, the Republicans automatically pickup two senate seats.

Shit fucking sucks.

[allegro]

I have non-stop anxiety about the Senate.

RBG is still fighting PANCREATIC cancer. And Clarence Thomas is old.

We stand to lose TWO SCOTUS seats. That Louisiana abortion decision will happen in June of 2021.

And there are still more Federal court seats to fill.

Anxiety. Constant anxiety.

You're right of course, and that's what I mean about having the progressives on side. Congress will follow the Dem party leadership if they make reinstating the VRA a priority, and I don't see Biden pushing for that. What count are you seeing putting Bloomberg with more pledged delegates than Warren?

Biden IS pushing for the VRA, he’s always been behind the VRA.

But, if the Senate is still Republican, it won’t make one damned bit of difference. I can’t stress enough how fucked we are if the Democrats don’t regain control of the Senate; it’s bigger than ANY other issue.

Here is what is likely to happen, based on what we’ve seen so far (echoing what @Magtig has said):

Sanders’ biggest voting block (young voters) just hasn’t shown up; based on that poor performance so far, nobody can count on it for the remainder of the primaries, let alone the general in November. It’s likely that Biden will gain the 1991 delegates by November.

If not, and if it’s close: Bloomberg’s and Warren’s delegates can be directed to vote, but it depends on the laws of each state re those delegates; some states dictate that those delegates go back into the “pool.”

The Bloomberg voters were always potential Biden voters, and the Warren voters were potential Sanders voters in the beginning; but, as a Warren voter, and having been personally harassed by Sanders voters and having seen the widespread harassment and lies and vitriol spread about Warren by these Sanders supporters, I’d be surprised if 50% of the Warren supporters go to Sanders. The Warren voters are hurt, and pissed. I’m just focusing on getting rid of Trump, solidarity, and the Senate.

[Swykk]

Senate is in play for Democrats but just barely. I’m nervous about that as well.

[allegro]

Here is a very good Twitter thread explaining the dire circumstances of the Senate very well, it’s worth a read:

[cdm]

This is clearly strategic as Michigan is now an absolute must-win but the optics are...not good if you're looking for black votes, not just in Mississippi but nationwide.

[allegro]

That’s likely because Michigan’s Governor just endorsed Biden?


My sad sad Warren lawn sign arrived the other day. I didn't even have the heart to remove it from the shipping package.

I'm gonna keep it, though.

Because it’ll be GREAT decor when she’s SENATE MAJORITY LEADER!!!!

[Balthier]

Are those stupid celebrities who promised they would leave the US (obviously not to move to Cuba or Venezuela) if Trump got elected finally do it if he gets re-elected? I certainly hope so, bunch of cowards.

[sweeterthan]

Are those stupid celebrities who promised they would leave the US (obviously not to move to Cuba or Venezuela) if Trump got elected finally do it if he gets re-elected? I certainly hope so, bunch of cowards.

Which ones promised to leave?


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[allegate]

Are those stupid celebrities who promised they would leave the US (obviously not to move to Cuba or Venezuela) if Trump got elected finally do it if he gets re-elected? I certainly hope so, bunch of cowards.

just as many of the celebrities who said they'd leave if Obama got elected/reelected. which is to say that words no longer have meaning when everyone is trying to get a soundbite and stay relevant in today's fast-moving news cycle.