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Thread: Prepare for Assault World War Three?

  1. #571
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  2. #572
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    Iodide tablets being distributed in Poland.

    Dimitri Medvedev (security advisor) say if anyone helps Crimea or looks at Russia funny, they gonna use Weapons of Ass Destruction.

    "judgement day will come fast and hard" blah blah blah.

    UN says "fuck you."

    Fuck.

  3. #573
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    If you haven't seen it - and odds are very good you haven't, considering - you should watch Threads.

    Threads is a 1984 apocalyptic war drama television film jointly produced by the BBC, Nine Network and Western-World Television Inc. Written by Barry Hines and directed and produced by Mick Jackson, it is a dramatic account of nuclear war and its effects in Britain, specifically on the city of Sheffield in Northern England. The plot centres on two families as a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union erupts. As the nuclear exchange between NATO and the Warsaw Pact begins, the film depicts the medical, economic, social and environmental consequences of nuclear war.

    Shot on a budget of £400,000, the film was the first of its kind to depict a nuclear winter. It has been called "a film which comes closest to representing the full horror of nuclear war and its aftermath, as well as the catastrophic impact that the event would have on human culture." It has been compared to The War Game produced in Britain two decades prior and its contemporary counterpart The Day After, a 1983 ABC television film depicting a similar scenario in the United States.

  4. #574
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    Good gravy.

  5. #575
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    Yale University is putting up an ongoing course by historian Timothy Snyder about Ukraine, its history and the war. Snyder's an expert on Eastern European history and this course (after having watched the first three classes) is excellent. You learn a lot about history - in general and as a science - too:


  6. #576
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    I'm increasingly terrified, day by day, that we are inexorably heading towards Putin ordering a tactical nuclear strike on the Ukraine front.

  7. #577
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    I still have some doubts about that happening. Not to say that it can't happen, because it certainly can, but it's pretty much suicide at that point. You kill the land that you fought to control (especially those places that were just "annexed" in), plus possibly contaminate a huge part of Russia, Europe, and Asia in the process, and the whole world turns on you, including your own people. Putin wants Russia to be seen in the same light that they were during the Cold War. He wants people to fear Russia. Invading Ukraine is less about Ukraine and more about image and perception, and it's working...for now. Unfortunately, Putin and his cronies underestimated how much Ukraine would fight back. They thought they could steamroll the country in a couple weeks. As much as Putin might wave the nuclear gun around, it has to be embarrassing for him to know that they've had to get to this point. They're trying to save face any way they can.

  8. #578
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    Yeah that's not happening. Worst case scenario they bomb a nuclear plant out of spite, which would be neither good nor fun, but nothing as dramatic as direct nuclear attacks.
    Thing is, Putin needs to consolidate what little power he has left, and make a show of strength without inciting his opponents into action.
    He still can do a lot of harm, nobody's gonna bomb Russia if there's a Chernobyl II, but the moment there's an actual mushroom cloud he's toast.

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    So... (and take this with a grain of propaganda salt but...)

    60'000+ troops dead... Russia is so fucked. Yeah, the ethno-nationalism and sending "non-Russians" is a thing but they've lost. They need to realize it and start paying.

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    Those equipment losses are STAGGERING!

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    Here are my thoughts, regarding what @botley said, and the subsequent discussion that followed.

    From everything I'm seeing, world leaders are taking the nuclear threat VERY seriously.
    BUT, there are two types of nukes: strategic and tactical. Usually, when you think "nuke," you're thinking Hiroshima Plus.

    But there are much, much, MUCH smaller nuclear weapons: the tactical weapons.

    I don't think Putin is about to start flinging ICBMs.
    But he DAMN sure might use a TINY nuke, in a relatively, or completely, unpopulated area, just as a dare: just to make good on his threats.
    That's what I'm kind of expecting.

    And then, the question is, what would the NATO response be? I'm 99% sure we aren't going to play Global Thermonuclear Warfare over a tiny nuclear weapon deployed in Ukraine.

    I'm not sure WHAT will happen militarily, but I know one thing: the words "nuclear weapon deployed," even if it's the weakest in the world, will cause worldwide panic, and a global economic destabilization the likes of which we've never seen.

    This is why I always go back to BUY CANNED FOOD NOW.
    Worry less about nukes landing on your head and more about the power going out, etc.

    That's what we've been doing: preparing more for, say, a massive STORM, with the accompanying empty store shelves and possible social unrest: NOT nuclear annihilation.
    Last edited by elevenism; 10-03-2022 at 03:02 AM.

  12. #582
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    One other thing regarding the stats @MrLobster posted: I see people just, SO fucking thrilled, that Ukraine (backed by the US) is fucking Russia up.

    BUT, we ALSO need to remember that the leader of the country getting fucked is sitting on the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, and appears to be batshit crazy and INSANELY proud.

    What will he do, when backed into a corner? I worry about that a LITTLE.

    And back on those tactical weapons: suppose a bit of radiation blows into Poland.

    Will that trigger an article five response?
    Last edited by elevenism; 10-03-2022 at 03:09 AM.

  13. #583
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenism View Post
    sitting on the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, and appears to be batshit crazy and INSANELY proud.
    I don't buy the 'Putin is mentally cracked' canard so much as, well, he bought his own hype. What would explain his behaviour better, 'completely irrational' vs. a product of toxic masculinity and a culture of statecraft completely based in Orwellian doublethink? Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania. War is peace. Actually, the West is buying into this too.

    Quote Originally Posted by elevenism View Post
    What will he do, when backed into a corner? I worry about that a LITTLE.
    From his perspective, this 'military operation' is the result of being backed into a corner. What I worry about is the endgame, how the war ends. His stated goal is to demilitarize the threat to Russian territory. Now that that includes the annexed regions, how far is he going to push in serving that goal?

    Quote Originally Posted by elevenism View Post
    And back on those tactical weapons: suppose a bit of radiation blows into Poland.

    Will that trigger an article five response?
    No idea.

  14. #584
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    well, apparently Russia has nuclear capabilities that our defense systems can't protect us now anymore. Probably thanks to Trump being a dumbass.

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    Seeing him at that press conference annexing the new territory he just looked so desperate the whole event was surreal. North Korea level pantomine now. His paranoid ramblings are just so dead end and sad. They have no weight anymore, The country is utterly fucked.
    Seeing people flee at the boarders due to mobilisation everyone looks depressed. I dont know how on earth they are going to deal with the humiliation when this ends badly for them soon. I mean seriously what comes next is just as scary. Putin will probably be dead at that point. Instability will make the 1990s look quaint probably.
    He has pissed off the hawks, and cratering the populations support, its over for him probably sooner than people think . I still cant believe he lost track of reality to think this war was a good idea in the first place. As if you can just subdue 45 million people in an area same size of Texas. All the hawks like Nikolai Patrushev that pressured him into this debacle need to be executed after this comes to an end.

  16. #586
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    Goddamn it Elon Musk, just shut the fuck up

  17. #587
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    Yes, let's not talk about how to actually end this atrocious war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jinsai View Post
    well, apparently Russia has nuclear capabilities that our defense systems can't protect us now anymore. Probably thanks to Trump being a dumbass.
    I just don't believe that (the first part. Trump IS a dumbass:P )
    @botley I don't buy...I didn't mean traditionally crazy. I'm pretty sure we're on the same page here: extreme toxic masculinity leading to a false sense of grandeur, coupled with backwards thinking, and an utterly idiotic sense of pride.
    How many men like that are responsible for murder/suicides of the " if I can't have her, nobody can" variety, though?
    That's the scary part I try not to think about.

    Anyway, as for grim news:

    Belarus is preparing airfields and railways, and accommodations for SOME big number of Russian troops (of course).

    Per the US Sec of Defense, "DEATH TO AMERICA" is being chanted in Iranian Parliament...(again).

    @Exocet speaking of NK, they've announced that they think the seizure/annexation of territory is "Fucking great" or something along those lines. (quite naturally)

    Internet turned off in Cuba, I think?

    MEANWHILE, on the NUCLEAR front:
    ImgSat, (a satellite imaging company) has detected Tu-60 and Tu-95 being moved to Olenya Air Base.
    These are nuclear capable bombers, and the air base holds nuclear weapons.

    And there's that train on the move, that's connected to Russia's central storage facilities for nuclear weapons, carrying some hot shit equipment.

    Oh and I almost forgot THIS headline: "Poseidon Nuclear Submarine deployed in Arctic waters...capable of drowning entire cities with radioactive tsunamis."

    I guess they're looking to try a test shot?

    There's also the good news:
    The Kremlin appointed Chechen leader suggested the use of a low yield nuclear weapon, and martial law in the "annexed" regions, after the Lyman battle.
    Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov responded, and said something like
    "these are very emotional times, and we prefer to act on balanced, objective assessment, not emotions. There are other options."
    (NOT a direct quote, just what I remember).

    OH, and the turkey that's always in the news? It actually CONDEMNED Russia's annexation, or whatever the fuck we're calling it.

    I swear, I never know what the turkey is going to say or do next.

    I still think we ARE looking at a low yield tactical nuke in Ukraine, though, and I'm still more worried about western financial issues than ICBMs.
    Last edited by elevenism; Yesterday at 01:59 AM.

  19. #589
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    Quote Originally Posted by botley View Post
    Yes, let's not talk about how to actually end this atrocious war.
    Musk’s proposed solution is terrible.

    How about this:

    Russia pulls out ALL troops, including Crimea, and respects Ukraine’s sovereignty.

    War ends.


    Honestly, I suspect one of two things will happen:

    1) Putin dies of cancer
    2) Someone on Putin’s security team takes Putin out
    Last edited by allegro; Yesterday at 01:09 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by allegro View Post
    Musk’s proposed solution is terrible.

    How about this:

    Russia pulls out ALL troops, including Crimea, and respects Ukraine’s sovereignty.

    War ends.
    And how could we reach that goal?

    A MASSIVE buildup of NATO forces might do the trick, along with a stern warning that ANY nuke: small yield/large yield, tactical/strategic, would be met with Russia's decimation through the use of CONVENTIONAL weapons, on a historic scale.

    My thinking, here, is that we CAN'T let Russia set a new nuclear precedent, and WE shouldn't, either, so we can't respond in kind.
    And we can't let them continue to threaten the world.

    I don't want ANYONE to be hurt, really. I'm a Social Utopianist, ffs.

    As far as cancer, do we know Putin has cancer?

    Internal assassination is possible, ESPECIALLY in light of oligarchs mysteriously falling out of windows, but shit- that could go either way, you know?
    Last edited by elevenism; Yesterday at 02:43 AM.

  21. #591
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    Sorry for double post, but, oh hell.
    Poland said that they WILL strike Russia if ANY Russian nuke is deployed in Ukraine.

    And, damn. That would be that.

    NATO state, Article 5.

    Sorry. I just woke up.

  22. #592
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    Quote Originally Posted by allegro View Post
    Musk’s proposed solution is terrible.
    Because...?

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    Because appeasement doesn't work. All it does is kicks the can a bit further.

    Elon Musk is a wealthy shitposter and he shouldn't be taken seriously. He cares as much about any given subject so far as said subject can A. make him money or B. help him chase clout.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdm View Post
    Because appeasement doesn't work.
    End the war first, prosecute its criminals after. I'm certainly no fan of Musk, but it looks like Putin's digging in to keep the fighting going through the winter, if not longer. Tens of thousands more people are going to die unless Ukraine and its allies sue for peace, right? Am I missing something here? If the West wants the war to end by routing Russian forces, it should be sending its own instead of doing all this by proxy; or else, go to the bargaining table (Crimea notwithstanding). Do you really think the NATO leaders aren't also just out for their own enrichment and clout in this conflict?

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    Quote Originally Posted by botley View Post
    Am I missing something here?
    Yes, the fact that it's Ukraine's desire not to cede one square cm of land to Russia. So therefore, lil Elon's proposal is a non-starter.

    Quote Originally Posted by botley View Post
    Do you really think the NATO leaders aren't also just out for their own enrichment and clout in this conflict?
    You're comparing the motives of a regional alliance to a conniving dweeb completely unable to keep his nose out of shit he knows nothing about? Are NATO member nations better or worse off if Russia can waltz in and illegally seize land whenever it sees fit? Is that chasing clout?

  26. #596
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    Putin’s men are there, torturing men, women and children, with the obvious plan of taking over the entire country; they won’t stop. Putin won’t concede.





    NATO was created BECAUSE of the Soviet threat.

    Putin is a threat to all of Europe. And the world.



    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukra...-1744403?amp=1
    Last edited by allegro; Yesterday at 01:05 PM.

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    Oh hell.

    So I guess we have some clarity on the NK/Japan thing from yesterday, now:
    NK launched a intermediate range nuclear capable ballistic missile OVER Japan, prompting "take shelter" orders in the north. It was NK's longest ever test launch.

    It also prompted a rare "take shelter" order in northern Japan.

    Biden and PM Kishida spoke today, and are coordinating and "immediate and long term response, " along with South Korea.

    The UN also talked a LOT of shit about US economic policy yesterday: they said the Fed and such should.reverse course with interest hikes, or a global recession will ensue.

    Edit: this was a rumor in May, June, and all summer, but the evidence has mounted, and i feel like it was pretty well.confirmed last.month in a september Foreign Affairs article by Fiona Hill, who is a former Russian staffer and current National Security Council member.
    I can't remember if I mentioned it, but here goes:

    Russia and Ukrainian negotiators were in talks and preparing to end the war between Feb and April, until Mr. Boris Johnson talked Zelensky OUT of a reasonable deal.
    The Kiev press stated that during Johnson's early April visit, he told Zelensky NO.

    And Hill wrote "according to multiple former U.S. senior officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators... tentatively agreed on a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw its position..."

    Basically, let Russia have part Donbass and Crimea, and Russia would withdraw, and Ukraine would not seek NATO membership, and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.

    It doesn't take much to connect these dots. The Fiona Hill article was the final dot for me.

    The question is WHY did this happen? If this is what it pretty much OBVIOUSLY appears to be, why in the hell did the UK/US put a stop to the diplomacy?
    Last edited by elevenism; Yesterday at 05:01 PM.

  29. #599
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    Russian soldiers raped, tortured and killed civilians by the 1,000s in those territories that they conquered and are probably still doing so. They also deported 1,000s of Ukrainian children. Freezing the war at the Status Quo would only lead to a continuation of that. There won't be peace or safety for Ukrainians.

    Also: to give in to nuclear blackmail won't make our world safer. It will lead to more blackmailing, more nuclear weapons and thus will make (more) war more likely.

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