Geopolitical Conflict News

[elevenism]

SO: I find this to be interesting.

Russia used Iranian weapons, recently, and Iran agreed to provide Russia with missiles and drones.
There was a Financial Times headline that was like "Iran Seeks to Exploit Widening Gap Between Russia and the West," in the past couple of days.

But NOW, we've got those protests in Iran, and protests around the world in solidarity.
Meanwhile, the US, in collusion with Elon Musk, is smuggling Starlink receivers into Iran.

I think, now, the WEST is going to exploit the widening gap between Iran and the Iranian people.

[stankeybearlover]

It would be a pretty big deal for western interests if Iran were to get a secular regime allied to the west or one that would claim to be geopolitically agnostic. So it would make sense for western powers to once again support a potential regime change. It would possibly give Iran bigger leverage in their dealings with Russia and China - putting their influence in Central Asia to question. It might completely change (geo)political relations in the Levant. It could weaken the hold that Saudi-Arabia has over the west. Depending on the relationship that Iran might foster with India, they could exert influence over Afghanistan and Pakistan to eventually put an end to religious rule.

[elevenism]

It would be a pretty big deal for western interests if Iran were to get a secular regime allied to the west or one that would claim to be geopolitically agnostic. So it would make sense for western powers to once again support a potential regime change. It would possibly give Iran bigger leverage in their dealings with Russia and China - putting their influence in Central Asia to question. It might completely change (geo)political relations in the Levant. It could weaken the hold that Saudi-Arabia has over the west. Depending on the relationship that Iran might foster with India, they could exert influence over Afghanistan and Pakistan to eventually put an end to religious rule.

Yeah, for sure.
We've been in bed with SA for FAR too long: ignoring their horrible domestic human rights violations, pretending they weren't involved in 9/11, all in the name of oil.
We've been blurring the lines, too, for years, by sending former US dignitaries to SA, to make oil deals.

And then, they kick us when we're down.

But I mean, I'm worried: the LAST time the CIA created an Iranian regime change, it kinda didn't work out pretty good.

[stankeybearlover]

But I mean, I'm worried: the LAST time the CIA created an Iranian regime change, it kinda didn't work out pretty good.

Yes, they really screwed the pooch on that one... and on many others. But it could also work out like Japan did.

[elevenism]

I've asked for a name change for this thread, that was made during the proxy war in Syria.
I think I asked for Geopolitical News, or something like that.

Anyway, so this shit coming from Russia is SUCH a joke: "Ukraine is going to use a US built dirty bomb, in Ukraine, and Russia KNOWS it's gonna happen."

In REALITY, Russian forces have hold of that big ass Ukrainian nuclear power plant.

It's like some Looney Tunes shit. I mean, seriously: the US is working with Ukraine. If we'd decided to cross that line...to just randomly use a radiological weapon against a failing Russian operation: well, first off, we WOULDN'T. We don't NEED to.

BUT...If that time came, god forbid, would it come in the form of some broke dick dirty bomb?

Come on, now.

[ryanmcfly]

Russian Missiles have hit Poland. Could be an accident, might not be. Getting real nervous now

[allegate]

yup, that's a big deal and the next couple of hours are going to be tense.

[cdm]

A lot of unknowns here but my gut says this was not intentional and evidence will bear that out. Inspection of the debris will be key, as will trajectory and proximity to Ukrainian air defenses.

[BRoswell]

I doubt it was intentional. Seems like Russia has had their fair share of issues with their rockets since this whole thing started. Not that an accident would make the situation any better, but I think if Russia wanted to bomb Poland, they would bomb Poland.

[mfte]

That ain't no good! So does an unintentional action count as an armed attack, and does this possibly trigger that Article 5?
I can't imagine that NATO has any interest in engaging Russia directly over this, but then what would that signal to Putin.

[allegro]

It hit a grain storage facility.

How stupid is this, really, wtf.

[cdm]

That ain't no good! So does an unintentional action count as an armed attack, and does this possibly trigger that Article 5?
I can't imagine that NATO has any interest in engaging Russia directly over this, but then what would that signal to Putin.

Nothing automatically triggers Article 5 and intent would certainly be factored into any decision by member states. There is a lot of unconfirmed and conflicting info floating around but one possibility is the missiles landed in Polish territory after being struck by Ukrainian air defenses. If true, that certainly would not draw a military response, even if Poland is ready to go like hell. There is nothing for NATO to gain by rushing a response, if any is warranted. Cooler heads will prevail here and I don't think that sends a weak signal to Putin.

Edit: good thread

[mfte]

Warsaw says that this was likely an accident caused by Ukrainian air defense systems. I wonder if this would be the official communication whether it was or not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...land-in-poland

[SM Rollinger]

Was this the "prepare for assault WW3" thread?

[cdm]

Warsaw says that this was likely an accident caused by Ukrainian air defense systems. I wonder if this would be the official communication whether it was or not.

It seems like the most plausible explanation based on what little info is out there. If I'm understanding correctly the type of debris found was from a surface to air missile and wasn't consistent with the missiles Russia launched in the attack and the range was such that it had to have been fired from within Ukraine to reach over the Polish border. Would have been easy for NATO to use this as an excuse to get involved and I'm glad they're not using it as such.

Was this the "prepare for assault WW3" thread?

Correct

[elevenism]

Was this the "prepare for assault WW3" thread?

Yeeeeessss, dude, and it was me who named it that, and I'm sorry.
I was eleven11 on the old board.
This was the first thread I made on THIS iteration of the board, and it was 9 or 10 years ago.

It was a reference to an AK1200 album, that you MIGHT know if you're into DnB.

The original thread name was kind or a joke.

[elevenism]

https://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-t...222245364.html

Well, hot damn.

Apparently, NK "test fired" a long range missile at Japan, sometime in the past 15 hours or so.

And we're talking about a missile that could reach the US.

US, Japan, SK, and...Australia? Yes, @Erneuert , no shit...Australia.

They're all really pissed.

[Erneuert]

https://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-t...222245364.html

Well, hot damn.

Apparently, NK "test fired" a long range missile at Japan, sometime in the past 15 hours or so.

And we're talking about a missile that could reach the US.

US, Japan, SK, and...Australia? Yes, @Erneuert , no shit...Australia.

They're all really pissed.

"test fired"... lol


"FARMING EQUIPMENT"

[chuckrh]

"test fired"... lol


"FARMING EQUIPMENT"

RIP Bill Hicks

[elevenism]

So I'm confused.
Dig into the news, and you'll find that there's a serious attempt.at an Iranian revolution, for the GOOD, supposedly, still going on.

But you've kind of gotta search for it. I figured we'd be ALL over something like that. They're still killing protesters in broad daylight: something like 500 shot (children seem to be fair game)
and 15000 imprisoned.

Maybe that's one two many conflicts? That's all I can figure.

Blinken SAID something, but I'd always...hell, I figured we were ALREADY involved.

And then, there's still Russian bombing going on around that huge nuclear power plant, which, imho, will be some false flag shit, if anything goes down.

[Teleblaster18]

Regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

One of the better sources of analysis and insight into what's happening is Ryan Evans's "War On The Rocks" podcast, where Michael Kofman has been a regular guest. Highly recommended. Michael Kofman is extremely well-informed, and has called most of the events correctly since before the invasion actually began.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...ks/id682478916


Forgive me if this was posted earlier in this thread; I didn't have time to go through all 24 pages.

[elevenism]

Regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

One of the better sources of analysis and insight into what's happening is Ryan Evans's "War On The Rocks" podcast, where Michael Kofman has been a regular guest. Highly recommended. Michael Kofman is extremely well-informed, and has called most of the events correctly since before the invasion actually began.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...ks/id682478916


Forgive me if this was posted earlier in this thread; I didn't have time to go through all 24 pages.

nah, i'm sure it wasn't.
I made this thread when we were in that proxy war with Syria, about 10 years ago.
I pay attention to this type of shit, and people seem to think i'm crazy.

anyway.

power companies have literally announced that about 1/3 of the US will experience blackouts this winter.

[elevenism]

Pages 3 - 24 are about Russia vs Ukraine...

Well,.fuck.me!.

Isn't this KIND of the same.thing, but in Europe, though?

Once again, it's NATO vs Russia, in a proxy war.

Props, though, @allegro , for the correction.

And thanks for the podcast link, @Teleblaster18 .

I'm. digging it, currently

[elevenism]

it looks like Russia is about to strike Ukraine again: war ships on combat duty in the black sea; cruise missiles ready for action.

Ukrainian Military is expecting imminent attack on infrastructure... AGAIN.

I think they (Russia) know they can't win on the battlefield, so they're gonna keep hammering away at infrastructure, in an attempt to create endless austerity and such for Ukraine: like, as soon as Ukraine has fixed some shit, Russia will blow it up again, from afar.

[allegro]

And now Ukraine is striking Russia … IN RUSSIA??

Moving the war INTO RUSSIA??

Which, personally, I think is an interesting strategy. Start fucking up their land, too. Got nothing to lose at this point.

[chuckrh]

And now Ukraine is striking Russia … IN RUSSIA??

Moving the war INTO RUSSIA??

Which, personally, I think is an interesting strategy. Start fucking up their land, too. Got nothing to lose at this point.

I have a good friend in Poland & she's very nervous. I tried to talk her into moving here as her company has an office here. Main reason for not coming is she doesn't want to leave her cats. Things could change though. All this action is really close to Poland obviously. They should be nervous.

[allegate]

The map I saw yesterday put it into a more stark relief: one of the targets is pretty close to Moscow so not only are they showing "hey, we can reach your bases" they are also showing "hey, Moscow...blink for us".

[mfte]

I have a good friend in Poland & she's very nervous. I tried to talk her into moving here as her company has an office here. Main reason for not coming is she doesn't want to leave her cats. Things could change though. All this action is really close to Poland obviously. They should be nervous.

My parents recently moved back and speaking to them and friends I have there, the impression that I get, is that most people are more worried about the the staggering inflation, energy crisis, and the shitty Law and Justice Party right-wing government further eroding democratic checks/balances, feuding with Germany, and stoking the hateful rhetoric of their numbskull voting base. People are definitely worried about Russia, but being an EU member goes a loooong way in easing that stress as it provides backing which Poland never had in its long history of being attacked/invaded by the neighbours.

[elevenism]

And of course ole' Vlad is upping the ante with some fairly hardcore nuclear saber rattling.

Yesterday he said that if one missile is detected by their warning system, "hundreds of our missiles are in the air. It is impossible to stop them...there will be nothing left of the enemy" and such.

He also suggested changing Russia's "no first use" doctrine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been shooting missiles at occupied Ukraine and Crimea, in the past few hours.

This next week could be intense; this shit has definitely entered a new phase

Edit: also, US has been sending more "combat ready" troops to Poland: how many, I don't think anyone knows.
US has also changed the status of troops in Lithuania to a "persistent rotational presence."
Last number I heard on THAT was 12-13k.

[elevenism]

Putin readies massive Yars nuclear missile capable of hitting US and UK

Shit is heating up between Kosovo and Russian backed Serbia, again, which COULD create a second front?

Also, Duma member in telegram post is calling for mobilizing, like, EVERYONE in Russia (suuuuuure. I bet Russian citizens would LOVE that), as well as a preemptive strike on London.
This is but the opinion of ONE outspoken member of Russian gvmt, however.

Indulge me in a bit of editorializing:
You know, the more of this war that I watch, the more I realize that Russia is LAUGHABLY bad at warfare: they lost vehicles for days trying to cross the SAME bridge awhile back, which Ukraine KEPT blowing up. They kept trying, anyway.

They don't take out artillery and anti-aircraft systems, and then send in battalions and go on bombing runs, and their infantry is slaughtered and planes shot down.

Their military doctrine flat out does NOT work, unless they're shooting smart missiles from safe places. Why didn't they use the smart missiles to take out anti aircraft systems, and then drop REGULAR bombs on infrastructure, for instance?

It's getting to the point, damn near, that it's JUST that they have nukes.
But, if they USE a nuke of ANY kind, they're fucked.

I just don't understand what they think they're DOING, now.