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xolotl
10-29-2018, 10:29 PM
Conclusion

NIN's Cold and Black and Infinite 2018 tour has now officially wrapped up, and we have learned at least one thing: we are terrible at predicting NIN setlists. Total new song debuts: 7. Total correct guesses: 0. To be fair, the only debuted songs in the second half of the tour were either HTDA "covers" (is it really a cover if every bandmember apart from Rob Sheridan was onstage?), or due to Mike Garson being around, but still: one of us really should've put our virtual money on some HTDA appearances. I mean, come on, folks.

Anyway, since there were no actual "real" points given to anyone over this whole thing, we must be a little fuzzier with our placements:

If we take into account the cheeky "a song will be played" style votes which I'd given 2 points to, Dryalex12 technically wins the contest, by virtue of low voting standards. Well done!
If we ignore those, loopcloses is the more "proper" winner, being the first person to bet so conservatively (only a single track), and so was punished less for the wrong prediction than nearly everyone else.
Esperanzan gets an honorable mention, since I allowed the vote "NOT We're In This Together" to provide some points. Apart from the shenanigans mentioned above, these were the only positive points on the board! Though it was quite offset by the rest of Esperanzan's enthusiastic voting.
A further honorable mention goes to K-Rice, for being bold enough to put in a vote for "all of The Fragile", which put the initial score way down to the very bottom, where it stayed for the remainder of the game. Shoot for the stars!


That's about it, really! I still think that this idea could be expanded into a more general "setlist prediction" game, which could be used on future tours, but I suspect that would be a hell of a lot of work for not much gain. Time will tell!

Thanks for engaging in this bit of silliness with me -- this was a truly stellar tour, and it was awesome watching it unfold.

Final Scores

If you know Python, feel free to check my scoring logic at https://github.com/apocalyptech/ets-cbi-predictions/blob/master/scores.py, not that it really matters. :)



Dryalex12: -83

+2 bonus points for being cheeky
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

theimage13: -83

+2 bonus points for being cheeky
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

loopcloses: -135

-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Downward Spiral"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

R-Dot-Yung: -135

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Deep"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

cdm: -135

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

joplinpicasso: -185

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Sunspots"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Halo Infinity: -185

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Every Day Is Exactly The Same"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Everything"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

WorzelG: -185

-50 for incorrectly guessing "My Violent Heart"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Zero-Sum"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

henryeatscereal: -235

-75 for incorrectly guessing "Adrift And At Peace"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Deepvoid: -260

-75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Idea of You"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

klyrish: -285

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

xolotl: -285

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Disappointed"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Warning"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Esperanzan: -360

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Down In It"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
+50 for guessing "NOT We're In This Together" correctly
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Not Anymore"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "The Four of Us Are Dying"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Fragile"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Great Below"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

trollmanen: -360

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Deep"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "No, You Don't"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Please"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Quake Main Theme (track 1)"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Haysey: -385

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Capital G"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Into the Void"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Leaving Hope"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Idea of You"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Theme For Tetsuo: The Bullet Man"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Elrickooo: -385

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Get Down, Make Love"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "God Given"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Please"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Right Where It Belongs"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Underneath It All"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

Erneuert: -385

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
-250 for incorrectly guessing "Full TDS Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

paul_guyet: -585

-50 for incorrectly guessing "Heresy"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Ruiner"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Downward Spiral"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "The Fragile"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Where Is Everybody?"
-250 for incorrectly guessing "Full TDS Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

elevenism: -758

+2 bonus points for being cheeky
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Not Anymore"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Scary Monsters"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "We're In This Together"
-500 for incorrectly guessing "Full PHM Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

fillow: -835

-750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

AThousandDaysBefore: -1010

-50 for incorrectly guessing "My Violent Heart"
-50 for incorrectly guessing "Where Is Everybody?"
-75 for incorrectly guessing "Zoo Station"
-750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"

K-Rice: -1835

-750 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (left) Album"
-1000 for incorrectly guessing "Full Fragile (right) Album"
-10 for not guessing "A Drowning"
-10 for not guessing "BBB"
-10 for not guessing "Ice Age"
-25 for not guessing "In This Twilight"
-10 for not guessing "Just Like You Imagined"
-10 for not guessing "On the Wing"
-10 for not guessing "Welcome Oblivion"



paul_guyet is being a little unfairly scored at the moment, since I realize that the predictions I put down in there include both "All of TDS", plus a few TDS tracks, but in the end it didn't turn out to be important enough to look into much. Sorry, paul_guyet, if your placement should be a bit higher than it is.

A bit silly to have a scoring system where literally everyone is in negative points forever, isn't it? Ah well.

Original Intro

So we're a bit over halfway through Cold and Black and Infinite, and we've got this little reprieve before the gang gets back on the road. I don't think anyone could've predicted the kinds of insane setlists we've been getting this time around, and at this point it sort of feels like practically anything's possible.

So, how about we place some bets about what new songs might get debuted in the remainder of the tour? Not, like, with money or anything, but here's the general gist of what I was thinking:

Method

Each person puts their votes in a single post. Put down the full list of stuff that you think'll debut in the remainder of the tour, and then we'll wait and see. Full points for predictions would stop at the start time of the first Mexico City date -- any posts edited/added past that time will get fewer points. Then once the tour's over, it gets scored something like this:




Vocals:


Correct prediction: +100 pts
Bonus points for a never-been-played song: +50 pts
Wrong prediction: -50 pts
Debut which you didn't guess: -25 pts


Instrumentals / Covers:


Correct prediction: +150 pts
Wrong prediction: -75 pts
Debut which you didn't guess: -10pts


Bonus points if you correctly guess all debuts: +100 pts

If no new debuts, and you post with "no debuts": +100 pts (though that would certainly be a shame; too late to get any points for guessing this one, though!)


Example: Let's say I predict Down In It, Heresy, and God Given. By the end of the tour, I've gotten pretty lucky and they've performed DII and Heresy, but also No, You Don't and Into the Void. So I get +200 for my correct predictions, -50 for the one I got totally wrong, and then -50 for the two that I missed. So my score ends up at 100.

Predictions for full-album playthroughs should probably be weighted a bit more heavily, yeah? I'm proposing the following:



(points for successful prediction / subtraction for incorrect prediction)
Pretty Hate Machine: +1000 / -500
The Downward Spiral: +500 / -250
The Fragile (left): +1500 / -750
The Fragile (right): +2000 / -1000
With Teeth: + 1200 / -600
Year Zero: +1500 / -750
The Slip: +1000 / -500
Hesitation Marks: +1500 / -750
NTAE: +300 / -150
ADD VIOLENCE: +300 / -150
Bad Witch: +300 / -150


I haven't really thought the exact point values through too much -- this was mostly a driving-home-from-groceries-with-not-much-else-to-think-about thing -- so I'm open to suggestions. Ties get broken by earliest post timestamp, I suppose. My thought was to penalize folks from casting too wide a prediction net, with the negative points, but also encourage a bit of boldness. Instrumentals/Covers should, IMO, carry a bigger reward/penalty since those are in general far less likely. I omitted a never-been-played category in there 'cause I think at this point basically all of them would be in there, yeah?

Winner gets the warm glow of contentment and pleasure that comes from having beaten the odds!

Fun, possibly? I think so.

Tour Updates



Nov 18 - Mexico City, MX, Corona Capital: -
Nov 19 - Mexico City, MX, Plaza Condesa: -
Nov 23 - New Orleans, LA: -
Nov 24 - New Orleans, LA: -
Nov 25 - New Orleans, LA: -
Nov 27 - Irving, TX: -
Nov 28 - Irving, TX: -
Nov 30 - Las Vegas, NV: -
Dec 1 - Las Vegas, NV: -
Dec 3 - San Francisco, CA: -
Dec 4 - San Francisco, CA: -
Dec 7 - Los Angeles, CA: A Drowning and Welcome Oblivion (HTDA covers)
Dec 8 - Los Angeles, CA: -
Dec 11 - Los Angeles, CA: -
Dec 12 - Los Angeles, CA: -
Dec 14 - Los Angeles, CA: Just Like You Imagined, In This Twilight, On the Wing, Ice Age (last two HTDA covers)
Dec 15 - Los Angeles, CA: BBB (HTDA cover)


Played So Far

Haysey suggested that I include the list of already-played songs in here, quite awhile ago, and I'd completely neglected to do so until the "main" window was already closed, but here it is anyway (cribbed from elevenism's thread) -

Pretty Hate Machine:



Head Like a Hole
Terrible Lie
Sanctified
Something I Can Never Have
Sin

Now I'm Nothing


Broken:



Pinion
Wish
Last
Help Me I Am in Hell
Happiness in Slavery
Gave Up
Physical (You're So)
Suck


The Downward Spiral:



Mr. Self Destruct
Piggy
March of the Pigs
Closer
The Becoming
I Do Not Want This
A Warm Place
Eraser
Reptile
Hurt

Burn
The Perfect Drug


The Fragile:



Somewhat Damaged
The Day the World Went Away
The Frail
The Wretched
Even Deeper
La Mer
Just Like You Imagined
Starfuckers, Inc.
The Big Come Down

And All That Could Have Been


With Teeth:



All the Love in the World
The Hand That Feeds
Only

Home


Year Zero:



The Beginning of the End
Survivalism
The Good Soldier
Me, I'm Not
The Great Destroyer
In This Twilight


The Slip:



1,000,000
Letting You


Hesitation Marks:



Pinion / Eater of Dreams
Copy of A
Came Back Haunted
Find My Way


Not the Actual Events:



Branches/Bones
Dear World,
Burning Bright (Field on Fire)


Add Violence:



Less Than
The Lovers
This Isn't the Place
The Background World


Bad Witch:



Shit Mirror
Ahead of Ourselves
God Break Down the Door
Over and Out


Covers:



David Bowie:
I'm Afraid of Americans
I Can't Give Everything Away
Subterraneans

Joy Division:
Digital
Dead Souls

Gary Numan:
Metal

How to Destroy Angels:
A Drowning
Parasite
Welcome Oblivion
On the Wing
Ice Age
BBB

bobbie solo
10-30-2018, 02:27 AM
https://media1.tenor.com/images/0df3c88314beaa4b49e82a87c043a001/tenor.gif

elevenism
10-30-2018, 06:17 AM
Hmmm. Ok.

I guess I'm not properly playing the game here, but I will say that I DO expect Scary Monsters to be played.

Aside from that, what else could possibly be as insanely exciting as what has been debuted so far?
I'm thinking more full album shows in LA.

I'm thinking we'll get a full PHM, as TDS has been done. I might be wrong and it might not happen until next year, but I do expect it to happen.

klyrish
10-30-2018, 09:17 AM
I'm betting We're In This Together gets played along with Into the Void, Heresy, and Ruiner.

paul_guyet
10-30-2018, 11:02 AM
I'm expecting one night in LA to be Broken and then TDS. Back-to-back. That's the whole show.

So, at some point before LA starts, I'm expecting "Heresy", "Ruiner", and "The Downward Spiral".

I'm also predicting "The Fragile" and "Where Is Everybody?".

Crazy outside bets: "10 Miles High" and "Underneath It All".

And...if Trent plays "Sex Dwarf"...I'm buying everyone in this thread an ice cream.

henryeatscereal
10-30-2018, 11:20 AM
I'm predicting "Leaving Hope" for one of the Mexico shows (i guess it's more of a wish than a prediction, but what the hell...)

heavenly_bearded
10-30-2018, 01:45 PM
And...if Trent plays "Sex Dwarf"...I'm buying everyone in this thread an ice cream.

Posting because I want free ice cream.

loopcloses
10-30-2018, 02:23 PM
I'm expecting one night in LA to be Broken and then TDS. Back-to-back. That's the whole show.

So, at some point before LA starts, I'm expecting "Heresy", "Ruiner", and "The Downward Spiral".

I'm also predicting "The Fragile" and "Where Is Everybody?".

Crazy outside bets: "10 Miles High" and "Underneath It All".

And...if Trent plays "Sex Dwarf"...I'm buying everyone in this thread an ice cream.

Has "The Downward Spiral" ever been played outside of the context of the full album? Because if it just popped up in a set that'd be pretty awesome.

roolfdriht
10-30-2018, 02:40 PM
Has "The Downward Spiral" ever been played outside of the context of the full album? Because if it just popped up in a set that'd be pretty awesome.

Yes, it was a staple of Self Destruct and FDTS in 1994/95 before returning frequently throughout 2009. Per NIN Tour History (http://nintourhistory.com), it's up to 120 plays.

I'm still trying to figure out how to place my bets... Given how little love HM and WT are getting so far, I'm skeptical their deep cuts will make a dramatic resurgence this late in the tour, though I'd love to be wrong. Decisions, decisions...

R-Dot-Yung
10-30-2018, 04:27 PM
I'd say Deep is pretty much guaranteed before the end of the tour.

K-Rice
10-30-2018, 07:15 PM
The Fragile. Whole album over two nights in New Orleans. A man can dream.

Dryalex12
10-30-2018, 08:14 PM
I predict that a song will be played at a show.

nmitchell86
10-30-2018, 10:30 PM
So on the Friday show in Chicago, I called out Help Me I'm In Hell and Happiness In Slavery (I just wanted them)… got both. Score!

Haysey
10-31-2018, 05:04 AM
OK this could be fun :rolleyes:

I'll go with...
- Into the Void
- The Idea of You
- Leaving Hope
- Tetsuo Theme for the Bullet man (because i'm a madman!)

Can i suggest in the main-post you have a list of the songs that have been played, just for reference?

elevenism
10-31-2018, 06:45 AM
Has "The Downward Spiral" ever been played outside of the context of the full album? Because if it just popped up in a set that'd be pretty awesome.I saw it twice in The Day (fourteen year old me) between Hurt and Wish both times. And it was, in fact, awesome.

elevenism
10-31-2018, 06:46 AM
Also. I didn't think about WITT.

OF COURSE that's gonna be played.

theimage13
10-31-2018, 07:03 AM
I predict that a song will be played at a show.

I predict numerous songs will be played at multiple shows.

elevenism
10-31-2018, 07:44 AM
I predict numerous songs will be played at multiple shows.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that numerous songs from several DIFFERENT albums will be played at multiple shows.

theimage13
10-31-2018, 08:00 AM
I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that numerous songs from several DIFFERENT albums will be played at multiple shows.

Holy fuck. I hope you're right.

*thinks about how long The Fragile is*

Actually, I kind of hope you're wrong.

elevenism
10-31-2018, 08:17 AM
Holy fuck. I hope you're right.

*thinks about how long The Fragile is*

Actually, I kind of hope you're wrong.

I really think a full Fragile is a STRONG possibility. What do you think?

Edit: I want a full album Fixed show. That's not happening, ever, I don't think :p

theimage13
10-31-2018, 10:33 AM
I really think a full Fragile is a STRONG possibility. What do you think?

Edit: I want a full album Fixed show. That's not happening, ever, I don't think :p

As I noted once as soon as Broken debuted, then again a few weeks later...

Trent has been opening shows with SD. Then SD and TDTWWA. Then SD through Wretched. He's trolling longer and longer "Fragile Show" intros as this tour progresses. I could see it happening.

henryeatscereal
10-31-2018, 10:36 AM
I'm predicting "Leaving Hope" for one of the Mexico shows (i guess it's more of a wish than a prediction, but what the hell...)
I'm also accepting/predicting "Adrift and at peace"

kleiner
10-31-2018, 11:41 AM
As I noted once as soon as Broken debuted, then again a few weeks later...

Trent has been opening shows with SD. Then SD and TDTWWA. Then SD through Wretched. He's trolling longer and longer "Fragile Show" intros as this tour progresses. I could see it happening.
It’d be the ultimate troll to do everything up to and including We’re In This Together and then move onto other songs from other albums and that’s exactly why I could see it happening.

paul_guyet
10-31-2018, 11:41 AM
The Fragile. Whole album over two nights in New Orleans. A man can dream.I'm hoping for the 20th anniversary next year he'll plan a small handful of Fragile shows. Whole thing, front to back, tossing in some Deviations. Seated venues, full visual component. I don't think that's too insane of an idea...

Haysey
10-31-2018, 12:03 PM
OK this could be fun :rolleyes:

I'll go with...
- Into the Void
- The Idea of You
- Leaving Hope
- Tetsuo Theme for the Bullet man (because i'm a madman!)

Can i suggest in the main-post you have a list of the songs that have been played, just for reference?

Oh thought of another...Capital G! (Given the context of the song i'm amazed this hasn't been played yet! Plus it has hidden sax!)

theimage13
10-31-2018, 12:40 PM
It’d be the ultimate troll to do everything up to and including We’re In This Together and then move onto other songs from other albums and that’s exactly why I could see it happening.

I feel like he did that before...or I might be thinking of playing TDS up to Ruiner or something before breaking off.

kleiner
10-31-2018, 01:18 PM
I feel like he did that before...or I might be thinking of playing TDS up to Ruiner or something before breaking off.

Yeah he did that with TDS and also Broken in 2009. He did the SD through to The Wretched thing night 3 of Vegas in June and everyone around me started having tiny freakouts because it really felt like anything could happen. If NOLA gets a full Fragile Left night, I won't shocked. It's the town they made it in and it has so much personal history there.

joplinpicasso
10-31-2018, 01:37 PM
I'm betting that likely deep cuts would be Sunspots or WITT.

Deep cuts that I would flip out to see online would be Demon Seed, EDIETS, or motherfucking Please.

fillow
10-31-2018, 04:21 PM
I don't believe we're ever getting Fragile in full. Just too many weird new songs to learn for a one-off kind of performance.
I think the best we can hope for here is Left CD in full, but not the whole album.

StockAvuryah
10-31-2018, 07:04 PM
I don't believe we're ever getting Fragile in full. Just too many weird new songs to learn for a one-off kind of performance.
I think the best we can hope for here is Left CD in full, but not the whole album.

yeah but how will they do Pilgrimage ? I hope for a full band marching through the crowd.

kleiner
10-31-2018, 08:08 PM
yeah but how will they do Pilgrimage ? I hope for a full band marching through the crowd.

I feel like such a dork because I've got chills imagining them playing that in New Orleans where Trent got that bar full of drunks to do the chanting vocals and samples on it twenty years ago.

elevenism
10-31-2018, 10:38 PM
I feel like such a dork because I've got chills imagining them playing that in New Orleans where Trent got that bar full of drunks to do the chanting vocals and samples on it twenty years ago.
You are, in fact, a dork. But you're on a forum populated by similarly styled dorks, so it's ok.

Haysey
11-01-2018, 12:19 PM
You are, in fact, a dork. But you're on a forum populated by similarly styled dorks, so it's ok.

Hey speak for yourself, i'm a nerd...wait :(

paul_guyet
11-01-2018, 12:24 PM
I don't believe we're ever getting Fragile in full. Just too many weird new songs to learn for a one-off kind of performance.
I think the best we can hope for here is Left CD in full, but not the whole album.I don't believe, I just hope. I mean, aside from six tracks, they have, at one point or another, played the whole album. Plus, if they do learn the whole thing, they can then randomly pepper in deep cuts from The Fragile into future shows, so it wouldn't have to be a wasted effort. I'd have thought this less possible if not for the CBI setlists and how deep and weird they are.

Also, can anyone else picture a pretty awesome transition from "In Two" to "Underneath It All"?

AThousandDaysBefore
11-01-2018, 03:12 PM
I see my violent heart and Where is everybody being played in the next concerts

And there is a chance of Fragile left side , they can put Pilgrimage as the intro and play all the other songs

joplinpicasso
11-01-2018, 03:19 PM
I feel like such a dork because I've got chills imagining them playing that in New Orleans where Trent got that bar full of drunks to do the chanting vocals and samples on it twenty years ago.

Ex..cuse me? Source?

jmtd
11-01-2018, 03:24 PM
Ex..cuse me? Source?

http://www.nin.wiki/Pilgrimage

Although that only says that the Buddha Boys Choir was named after the bar over the street; I have heard it said before that some of the regulars from there formed part of the choir. But perhaps that was legend since it didn't make it to ninwiki.

Esperanzan
11-01-2018, 06:58 PM
Alright, I'll give this a shot.

The Great Below, Down In It, The Fragile and Heresy will return. The Four of Us Are Dying and Not Anymore will be debuted.

I'm going on record that there's zero chance of WITT coming back, given how hard it is to sing. Feel free to -100 if I'm wrong though.

kleiner
11-01-2018, 07:41 PM
Trent screaming the end of Happiness in Slavery and adjusting songs to fit his range as needed lately makes me think the vocal issues for WITT are irrelevant now but who knows with him? I’m still surprised Not Anymore hasn’t been brought out at all by now.

elevenism
11-01-2018, 11:30 PM
Oh yeah, speaking of Not Anymore: I TOTALLY expect that one and The Idea of You to be played.

And I'll say it again: I'm CERTAIN WITT will return.

Also, although my money is still on a full PHM, if we don't get that, I think we'll DEFINITELY get DII. And we'll probably get ringfinger too.

Memorabilia wouldn't surprise me in the least, nor would Get Down Make Love.

And, again, Scary Monsters is pretty damned likely.
As far as Bowie goes, less likely but still entirely possible are The Heart's Filthy Lesson and Halo Spaceboy. Ashes to Ashes is another possibility.

Esperanzan
11-02-2018, 12:46 AM
Given the distaste Trent has expressed for some of PHM in the past I'm personally not counting on a full album performance, but it would be great to be proven wrong. Imagine the crowd going wild when Head Like A Hole is played first.

paul_guyet
11-02-2018, 10:33 AM
Oh yeah, speaking of Not Anymore: I TOTALLY expect that one and The Idea of You to be played.
I would be surprised if he didn't debut the rest of the EPs on this tour as well. Maybe "She's Gone Away" will pop back up. I remember thinking how huge and filthy it was when they played it at Webster Hall last year.

Anyone else think an EP show (all three back-to-back-to-back) could be in the cards for one of the LA nights?

Steven
11-02-2018, 02:11 PM
Anyone else think an EP show (all three back-to-back-to-back) could be in the cards for one of the LA nights?


Ooo I'd love to see that. As much as I love classic NIN the Trilogy is incredible and all three together live would be an experience.

xolotl
11-05-2018, 02:59 PM
I suppose I've been ignoring my own thread for long enough, and should officially enter the fray myself. So, I'll go for:


Heresy
Into the Void
The Warning
Disappointed

Here's looking forward to my sub-negative-two-hundred score!

I'm actually wondering if either points for correct predictions should be raised a bit, or penalties for incorrect predictions should be lowered. If anyone else has opinions, let me know, otherwise they'll probably just stay as they are. :)

One thing I hadn't considered pointwise, really, was the full-album prediction. I'd think that would be worth more than just the sum of the unplayed songs, especially for the more unlikely ones. IMO the only one that's actually feasible would be TDS, or possibly one of the trilogy. Perhaps a different point scale per album, something like:



(moved these to the main post in the thread, in case I edit them later, so there's not two lists which get out of sync)

trollmanen
11-09-2018, 10:40 AM
We're In This Together
No You Don't
Please
Deep
Quake Main Theme (Track 1)

Elrickooo
11-09-2018, 05:23 PM
Underneath it all
Please
Ruiner
Get down make love
Right where it belongs
God given

Esperanzan
11-09-2018, 08:25 PM
Underneath it all
Please
Ruiner
Get down make love
Right where it belongs
God given

This is actually a pretty probable list.

captainbeyond
11-10-2018, 02:37 AM
http://www.nin.wiki/Pilgrimage

Although that only says that the Buddha Boys Choir was named after the bar over the street; I have heard it said before that some of the regulars from there formed part of the choir. But perhaps that was legend since it didn't make it to ninwiki.


The bar across the street from the old Nothing Studios is called the Buddha Belly. It's still there. I played a gig there once. I've read that Trent would sometimes "audition" potential Nothing artists there with Dave Ogilvie engineering and being in charge of setting up these performances.

botley
11-10-2018, 03:00 AM
^ And, from that same bar they recruited the "Buddha Debutante Choir" for TDTWWA 'backing chants', which I believe TR described (in that Kurt Loder interview for 120 Minutes late 1999) as the "most atonal group of females" ever assembled, heheh.

AThousandDaysBefore
11-10-2018, 05:13 PM
Zoo station!!!

I am listening this song, and holy shit , this song fixes so well with the idea of the tour

xolotl
11-18-2018, 04:55 PM
Ah right, the tour picks back up again tonight! Thought I had another week or so for some reason, was planning on collating all the "votes" to summarize, beforehand, though that may not happen now. NIN hits the stage at 21:20 (GMT-6) -- or 03:20 GMT on the 19th -- so y'all have a little over five hours to get some predictions in!

I was thinking that perhaps the scoring should have some modifications to allow predictions to occur throughout the tour as well. Like we use the suggested scoring for any predictions which come in before tonight's show starts, but perhaps have diminishing returns pointwise for each show "missed" thereafter. Anyway, for full marks, get your predictions in soon. :)

xolotl
11-18-2018, 10:23 PM
Okay, predictions (for full point values, anyway) are officially closed. We'll say maybe a -10 point deduction per show missed, for predictions posted after this point? Sure, why not.

I've collated the predictions (in order they were posted) - in some cases I had to make some judgements as to whether folks were making actual predictions or just wishing; I'm open to changing the "official register" if you think I've put anything on here which shouldn't be (or something which should be on here but isn't). I used to have all this inline in this post, but the canonical location is now just in the first post of the thread. So look in there!

I should continue to mention here that I am willing to award +2 points for the following cheeky votes:



Dryalex12

A Song

theimage13

Numerous Songs

elevenism

Numerous songs from several different albums

xolotl
11-19-2018, 02:11 AM
I just updated the main page with the current scores (as they'd stand if the tour were to end today). Obviously with only a single show gone past, in which no new songs were debuted, everyone except for those few cheeky bonus guesses is sitting at negative points. Here's hoping we get some more interesting updates as the tour goes on!

Once the tour's wrapped up, I'll post the final scores as their own post, but for now I'm just gonna keep 'em on the main post.

Halo Infinity
11-19-2018, 07:41 AM
Now that Happiness In Slavery, The Perfect Drug and And All That Could Have Been are out of the way, I'd actually like to go with Everything.

This is still more of a wish or a hope for it than anything though.

And with Bad Witch being the way it is, it would be cool to see Videodrones; Questions and Driver Down, but that's also still my wishful thinking talking.

Haysey
11-19-2018, 08:16 AM
If i manage to get into a positive score i'll be amazed (and the tour would be AMAZING!)

Deepvoid
11-19-2018, 08:17 AM
Honestly, I still can't believe they haven't played The Idea Of You by now. Either it sounded terrible during rehearsal or... I have no clue tbh.

I think we're gonna see it at one of the L.A. shows.

As far as deep deep cuts go, my money would be on Leaving Hope or WITT in L.A or Vegas.

WorzelG
11-21-2018, 01:03 PM
I see my violent heart and Where is everybody being played in the next concerts

And there is a chance of Fragile left side , they can put Pilgrimage as the intro and play all the other songs
Just listening to Year Zero on a train journey and the way he did The Lovers gives me hope for My Violent Heart and Zero Sum

nooneimportant
11-22-2018, 06:14 AM
yeah but how will they do Pilgrimage ? I hope for a full band marching through the crowd.

Robin does the riff, Trent plays sax, Ilan does some weird drumming. It could sound decent.

Deepvoid
11-22-2018, 07:10 AM
Just listening to Year Zero on a train journey and the way he did The Lovers gives me hope for My Violent Heart and Zero Sum

See... Zero Sum is another one that just boggles my mind on why it hasn't been played live.

On the other hand, as much as I love My Violent Heart, I just don't see how it can translate well in a live setting. I don't think real drums would do the song justice.

Haysey
11-22-2018, 10:59 AM
See... Zero Sum is another one that just boggles my mind on why it hasn't been played live.

On the other hand, as much as I love My Violent Heart, I just don't see how it can translate well in a live setting. I don't think real drums would do the song justice.

Correct me if i'm wrong but i'm sure Zero Sum was a regular live track during the year zero and a little while after. Remember it was used as a set closer over hurt a few times...i didn't dream that did i?...NO i didn't, it's on my phone, the live version is KILLER!

*Edit, your probably referring to this tour aren't you, ignore me!

hologram parade
11-22-2018, 11:32 AM
Correct me if i'm wrong but i'm sure Zero Sum was a regular live track during the year zero and a little while after. Remember it was used as a set closer over hurt a few times...i didn't dream that did i?...NO i didn't, it's on my phone, the live version is KILLER!

*Edit, your probably referring to this tour aren't you, ignore me!


Zero Sum has never been played live, ever. The piano outro was played to close the Lights In The Sky tour.

Haysey
11-22-2018, 11:43 AM
Zero Sum has never been played live, ever. The piano outro was played to close the Lights In The Sky tour.

My bad, you are quite right. The live version i have is In This Twilight with the Zero Sum outro...why the hell did i title it Zero Sum?!

WorzelG
11-22-2018, 01:16 PM
See... Zero Sum is another one that just boggles my mind on why it hasn't been played live.

On the other hand, as much as I love My Violent Heart, I just don't see how it can translate well in a live setting. I don't think real drums would do the song justice.
Maybe he found the speaking voice element didn't work? This is why I think Idea of You hasn't been played either, as it's spoken / whispered, same with My Violent Heart
Haysey yes they played the final instrumental part but only as an outro, I want to hear the full song

xolotl
11-22-2018, 02:59 PM
On the other hand, as much as I love My Violent Heart, I just don't see how it can translate well in a live setting. I don't think real drums would do the song justice.

Yeah, I'd love to see it attempted, but I suspect you may be right. It's one of those songs that really benefits from studio fiddling. I actually have the same issue with the live versions of Only; I've never really thought that song's been done justice -- really seems to benefit from being tightly-edited. I'll throw No, You Don't in the mix a bit as well - that song already starts at 11, and it's easy for the studio version to add intensity where required, but I've always felt the live versions lack that extra little push.

Not that I dislike any of those live, I'd be very happy to see any of those. :)


Maybe he found the speaking voice element didn't work? This is why I think Idea of You hasn't been played either, as it's spoken / whispered, same with My Violent Heart

'course, then they go up there and do The Lovers where he's literally holding a speaker up to the mic to do the spoken bits, so I think if he wanted to do it, he'd probably find a way.

ryanmcfly
11-27-2018, 11:51 AM
On the other hand, as much as I love My Violent Heart, I just don't see how it can translate well in a live setting. I don't think real drums would do the song justice.

They can do it just like they do Me, I'm Not, Vessel, The Warning, and The Great Destroyer. Noisy and electronic af

cdm
11-29-2018, 08:22 AM
Heresy coming out in Vegas. I'll be wrong but i'm going to say it anyway.

Esperanzan
12-01-2018, 03:01 AM
Looks like the guy that guessed no new songs might end up being the winner here...

StockAvuryah
12-01-2018, 05:55 AM
Looks like the guy that guessed no new songs might end up being the winner here...
I don't know if you saw but there's approximately 3000 shows in California. And that was the first one.

xolotl
12-01-2018, 01:42 PM
Looks like the guy that guessed no new songs might end up being the winner here...

Heh, I don't think anyone's officially taken that bet yet, actually.

I've always felt that the most likely time for more debuts was during their six-day LA residency, so that's where my money is. Though as I've said elsewhere, even if they don't debut anything else, this has been one hell of a tour. I'd mostly just feel a bit sheepish for putting so much thought into a useless thread, should it turn out that way. :)

I've actually been wondering if something like this could be done for whatever 2019 dates end up popping up. Sort of a Tour Setlist Predictions thread or something. Though I feel like something like that would benefit from being a full-on webpage thing, which I don't think I'd be willing to spend the time on. Plus, with a stable band and a seeming dedication to keeping tour visuals stripped down, I suspect that their song rotations may not change much for future tours, barring any new music which comes out.

Edit: Also, I've changed my mind about the point reductions for voting while the tour is already underway. Doesn't really make sense for the most part. I'm keeping a point reduction in case anyone now votes for "no debuts", though. If you want to get any points for that, be sure to vote in the next few days; that vote's already down to just 20pts.

Esperanzan
12-08-2018, 01:17 AM
You know what, I'm betting that there will be no debuts for the last six nights. My prediction is it's just gonna be the same songs in different variations. They've settled into a groove with these shows.

xolotl
12-08-2018, 02:12 AM
You know what, I'm betting that there will be no debuts for the last six nights. My prediction is it's just gonna be the same songs in different variations. They've settled into a groove with these shows.

Heh, spoilers thread is indicating at least one new HTDA song tonight, woo! Which... I wonder why nobody thought to guess any HTDA songs? Seems obvious in hindsight that he might bring Mariqueen onstage for the LA dates. Anyway, I'm keeping your original votes, no backsies. You can languish in the negative points along with everyone else. :)

Esperanzan
12-08-2018, 02:16 AM
Heh, spoilers thread is indicating at least one new HTDA song tonight, woo! Which... I wonder why nobody thought to guess any HTDA songs? Seems obvious in hindsight that he might bring Mariqueen onstage for the LA dates. Anyway, I'm keeping your original votes, no backsies. You can languish in the negative points along with everyone else. :)

I should have definitely waited to make that bet. Still, it’s a win-win situation!

xolotl
12-08-2018, 03:15 AM
Okay, was hoping to get a bit more confirmation about the two HTDA debuts before updating, but I'm already a good 90 minutes overdue for sleep and I'm excited to have some "real" points to deduct from literally everyone, so I've gone ahead and updated the first post. Now we're all doing even worse than we were! :)

Good times, good times.

Halo Infinity
12-09-2018, 08:44 PM
Perhaps there's a chance that Every Day Is Exactly The Same is going to eventually make an appearance this time around.

It also still seems extremely unlikely and highly unrealistic, but I'm actually still holding out for Kinda I Want To, That's What I Get, The Only Time and Ringfinger. (As in some or even just one of them.)

I am also willing to predict that there probably might be a Pretty Hate Machine concert in next tour if not this one. But that wouldn't really count so I would just hope/wish it happens any time this month then.

xolotl
12-09-2018, 09:15 PM
Perhaps there's a chance that Every Day Is Exactly The Same is going to eventually make an appearance this time around.

It also still seems extremely unlikely and highly unrealistic, but I'm actually still holding out for Kinda I Want To, That's What I Get, The Only Time and Ringfinger. (As in some or even just one of them.)

Heh, are you officially appending to your original vote? :)

K-Rice
12-10-2018, 08:51 PM
Yay Iím in last place! Do I win anything if nobody made a worse prediction than me for the final few shows?

xolotl
12-10-2018, 10:55 PM
Yay I’m in last place! Do I win anything if nobody made a worse prediction than me for the final few shows?

If we don't get any more debuts, "most negative" is probably gonna be about the most interesting result, so I'd say probably! :)

TheRealNs1
12-13-2018, 02:12 AM
Have they played Only this tour so far? Because they just played that shit - with lasers.

And Good Soldier holy shit!

AThousandDaysBefore
12-13-2018, 10:21 AM
Wow trent is laughing at us in this moment hahahahahaha

This should be the worst contest ever

xolotl
12-13-2018, 10:54 AM
This should be the worst contest ever

Hah, our scores do all seem likely to be fairly pathetic. :) Two more shows, we shall see!

Halo Infinity
12-14-2018, 04:51 PM
Heh, are you officially appending to your original vote? :)
Something like that, but either way I'm just having fun with it. :p


Wow trent is laughing at us in this moment hahahahahaha
Well then. In This Twilight confirmed. :p


This should be the worst contest ever
The Great Below and/or The Big Come Down has arrived. ;)

Erneuert
12-15-2018, 12:09 AM
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict either all of TDS will appear
tonight, or at least “Heresy”.

Sarah K
12-15-2018, 12:23 AM
If they get TDS, I'm done with my life.

Erneuert
12-15-2018, 12:30 AM
If they get TDS, I'm done with my life.

Just to intensify the sting, he’ll probably perform the title track and sing all of the lyrics to it, unlike previous largely instrumental versions.

ManBurning
12-15-2018, 12:30 AM
I don't anticipate any more surprises. The band is tired. They probably just want this tour to be over. If anything is going to be played in full tonight or tomorrow, it'll be broken. At the most, I can see a guest appearance on the Saturday show, but that's all. Song debuts are over.

Erneuert
12-15-2018, 12:33 AM
I don't anticipate any more surprises. The band is tired. They probably just want this tour to be over. If anything is going to be played in full tonight or tomorrow, it'll be broken. At the most, I can see a guest appearance on the Saturday show, but that's all. Song debuts are over.

Don’t forget that the majority of TDS has been played, though. Heresy, Ruiner, BMWAG and TDS could easily slide in there!

Esperanzan
12-15-2018, 12:47 AM
Actually I'll append Just Like You Imagined to my guesses!

ManBurning
12-15-2018, 02:44 AM
Well then. In This Twilight confirmed. :p


Apparently so. You called that one.
I swear Trent must be lurking this board before playing. The other night we were talking about how The Becoming hasn't been played since the beginning of the tour and then it was played THAT night. and Now this.


Actually I'll append Just Like You Imagined to my guesses!

You also called this at the very last second tonight. Nicely done.

AThousandDaysBefore
12-15-2018, 05:02 AM
Wow, You have really nice influences ��
I like your friends!!
Well then In this twilight confirmed= Tonight they played In this Twilight

xolotl
12-15-2018, 12:09 PM
Actually I'll append Just Like You Imagined to my guesses!

Heh, I'm actually not gonna add that in to your official votes, since that was put in after the presence of a piano at last night's show was confirmed. No cheating, you! :)

Of course, with that call, we still have zero correct predictions, out of six debuts. Go us!

I'm on the fence about attributing In This Twilight to Halo Infinity, since I don't think that was intended to be a real prediction. If I include that, I'll also be including the other jokes in that post.

Esperanzan
12-15-2018, 06:01 PM
Heh, I'm actually not gonna add that in to your official votes, since that was put in after the presence of a piano at last night's show was confirmed. No cheating, you! :)

Of course, with that call, we still have zero correct predictions, out of six debuts. Go us!

I'm on the fence about attributing In This Twilight to Halo Infinity, since I don't think that was intended to be a real prediction. If I include that, I'll also be including the other jokes in that post.

you got me ;)

xolotl
12-16-2018, 03:34 PM
I updated the main post with this, but for the record here as well:

NIN's Cold and Black and Infinite 2018 tour has now officially wrapped up, and we have learned at least one thing: we are terrible at predicting NIN setlists. Total new song debuts: 7. Total correct guesses: 0. To be fair, the only debuted songs in the second half of the tour were either HTDA "covers" (is it really a cover if every bandmember apart from Rob Sheridan was onstage?), or due to Mike Garson being around, but still: one of us really should've put our virtual money on some HTDA appearances. I mean, come on, folks.

Anyway, since there were no actual "real" points given to anyone over this whole thing, we must be a little fuzzier with our placements:

If we take into account the cheeky "a song will be played" style votes which I'd given 2 points to, Dryalex12 technically wins the contest, by virtue of low voting standards. Well done!
If we ignore those, loopcloses is the more "proper" winner, being the first person to bet so conservatively (only a single track), and so was punished less for the wrong prediction than nearly everyone else.
Esperanzan gets an honorable mention, since I allowed the vote "NOT We're In This Together" to provide some points. Apart from the shenanigans mentioned above, these were the only positive points on the board! Though it was quite offset by the rest of Esperanzan's enthusiastic voting.
A further honorable mention goes to K-Rice, for being bold enough to put in a vote for "all of The Fragile", which put the initial score way down to the very bottom, where it stayed for the remainder of the game. Shoot for the stars!


That's about it, really! I still think that this idea could be expanded into a more general "setlist prediction" game, which could be used on future tours, but I suspect that would be a hell of a lot of work for not much gain. Time will tell!

Thanks for engaging in this bit of silliness with me -- this was a truly stellar tour, and it was awesome watching it unfold.

ManBurning
12-17-2018, 01:28 AM
opening the encore with what child is this/greensleeves was weird and awesome and a lot of people were utterly confused. (hahaha-- someone near me was like, "is that paul shaffer?" i have overheard some incredibly dumb shit at nin shows, but that was just like... wtf?) the whole thing felt very david lynch, especially with the red & green logos.

anyway, when tr came onstage he said something to the effect of "bet no one picked that in the setlist sweepstakes!", which made me laugh.

Hahaha, was that a nod to this thread??

laura
12-17-2018, 01:34 AM
Hahaha, was that a nod to this thread??

it sure felt like one!

Haysey
12-17-2018, 07:17 AM
I'm looking forward to this thread coming back whenever the next tour is!

xolotl
12-17-2018, 10:01 AM
Hahaha, was that a nod to this thread??

Haah, that would be amazing. My wife had been joking that TR was probably keeping an eye on this thread and specifically not playing anything that anyone had guessed. :)

Haysey
12-17-2018, 10:21 AM
Haah, that would be amazing. My wife had been joking that TR was probably keeping an eye on this thread and specifically not playing anything that anyone had guessed. :)

If he had been doing that you can bet he'd have at least worked out a way to start playing one of our more obscure picks then go straight into HLAH or something, just to troll us!