I hear what you're saying, and you're probably right in terms of his arc, but I think the keywords there is where "I" want him to be. I don't want him to be back where he was. It's one thing to be tripping out like he was at the start of this season, but these are now well thought, calculated decisions, and they are not being made because it's what's best for the group like they were previously, it's because he's scared and lost and he doesn't realize it. There is no coming back from that for me. They might write him a redemption story line, but I doubt I will be able to buy into it. He will still be the guy who time after time after time has fucked up his strategy and evaluation of people. One shining moment of salvation at the end of this season won't change who he is going forward because he could still easily make the same bad decisions again in the future. Rick's character through 3 seasons is obvious to me; he just doesn't LEARN anything. Once I saw a flash of it; when he killed that guy in the prison immediately after he stepped to him, but then it all went downhill after that. All of what happened with Shane was lost on him, and the Governor is a perfect example of that.

Personally I hope he continues down his rabbit hole, and ultimately is killed by Carl next season. Would be a very appropriate end for Rick, his son tried to tell him already that he wasn't fit and he wrote him off, and this would complete Carl's growth. Much in the same way I hope Merle is killed by Darryl. Rick is weak, has lost his principles, and doesn't know where he stands on anything anymore, whereas Merle never had any principles to begin with. Both deserve to die sooner than later. I think it's pretty obvious the Governor isn't making it out of this season alive, so it makes sense for one or both of them to become the main antagonist in season 4 in their own ways, especially if there is some merging of camps (andrea, milton, possibly tyrese, etc)