Geopolitical Conflict News

[elevenism]

Demands from Kremlin spokesman, as of this morning.

1. Ukraine must recognize Crimea, DNR and LNR as Russian

2. Ukraine must "demilitarize."

3.Ukraine must amend its constitution and renounce its claim to join any bloc in reference to both the European Union and the NATO Alliance

ALSO, Putin said some eerie shit on tv about Ukraine "losing its statehood if it " continues to act this way."
And there are rumors of Russia suggesting like...making Ukraine a puppet state, by leaving Zelenskyy "in power," but in name only, and installing a Russian Prime Minister.


My read on all of this is that this thing ain't stopping any time soon.

[cdm]

Continued bullshit "rationale". Russia has yet to define how their security is being threatened by Ukraine. Ukraine has sought western weapons because of Russia's actions not in order to invade or otherwise encroach upon their borders.

EDIT: Also this:

[elevenism]

ABC news said the demands were:

1) Recognize Crimea as Russian territory
2) Recognize Donbas region (Donetsk and Lugansk) as Russian territory
3) Give up trying to join NATO


Edit: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremli...ts-2022-03-07/

“The bloc” = NATO

This is, frankly, a big concession from Putin. Because he’s not demanding that Ukraine not be in the EU, that Ukraine totally demilitarize (Putin says “he’s doing that, now” but it’s b.s. propaganda), or that Ukraine remove its government and basically meld into RUS (Putin’s been asserting for YEARS that Ukraine isn’t an independent state, now he’s saying Ukraine could “lose its statehood”).

Ah, true. I accidentally lumped the "demilitarized Ukraine" part in with the new demands, BECAUSE Putin said it's already happening.

Why should we think he ISN'T, though? What's stopping him? Why do you think it's just propaganda? I mean it IS propaganda, but at the same time, what's to stop him?

Also i just don't know what's TRUE, here, what with the whole "fog of war" business.

For instance, per the AP: "a Ukrainian official" said that the Mariupol cease fire was violated by Russian shelling.
Russian media claimed that Ukraine was using people as human shields.
And US intelligence, last I heard, was unable to corroborate either side.

[cdm]

Also i just don't know what's TRUE, here, what with the whole "fog of war" business.

For instance, per the AP: "a Ukrainian official" said that the Mariupol cease fire was violated by Russian shelling.
Russian media claimed that Ukraine was using people as human shields.
And US intelligence, last I heard, was unable to corroborate either side.

Agreeing to humanitarian ceasefires only to immediately break them is a thing Russia does. It's the absolute bare minimum to say "well we tried". Not only that their communication channels are absolute shit. It's very possible the units shelling were not notified however if you can't guarantee everyone will get the message you shouldn't be agreeing to the ceasefire in the first place.

TLDR: Russia agreeing to a ceasefire always ends with Russia breaking the ceasefire.

[elevenism]

Don’t believe anything from Russia.

Right, I hear you.

But you could say the same about THIS country. Everything is questionable during war, hot or cold.

(not one inch eastward. They pull babies out of incubators and fling them on the ground. He has weapons of ass destruction)

[elevenism]

So okay.

Do you guys think Putin, in the face of these unprecedented sanctions and near unanimous condemnation on the world stage, will accept Ukraine's possible agreement to not join NATO or the EU, and call that a victory? (edit: and Ukraine's ceding of a bit of the Donbass region)

OR, are we looking at Ukraine is The New Syria, best case scenario?

Because SOME of the things this motherfucker has said make me think that there's at least a possibility that he's thinking
"we're reforming the Soviet Union or I'm gonna die trying, and I just might take a few million of you with me."

[cdm]

So okay.

Do you guys think Putin, in the face of these unprecedented sanctions and near unanimous condemnation on the world stage, will accept Ukraine's possible agreement to not join NATO or the EU, and call that a victory? (edit: and Ukraine's ceding of a bit of the Donbass region)

Ukraine joining both EU and NATO seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Agreeing to remain a non-member just kicks the can and he'll try this again in some form or another. Putin seriously miscalculated and I'm not sure I see a path to "victory" if current trends don't change.

[elevenism]

Ukraine joining both EU and NATO seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Agreeing to remain a non-member just kicks the can and he'll try this again in some form or another. Putin seriously miscalculated and I'm not sure I see a path to "victory" if current trends don't change.

Respectfully, I don't think Ukraine joins EU or NATO with Putin still in power. I don't think NATO wants the RISK, because of article...5?- you know, the "if you fuck with one of us, you fuck with all of us" clause.
@allegro 's mention of the mob and the oligarchs is interesting.
I'll see that, AND, i'll raise you millions average Russians waking up to find that their Visa and Mastercard and shit doesn't work. Now THAT, all of it together...THAT could be something.

It would be great to see all of this TOTALLY backfire.

[cdm]

Respectfully, I don't think Ukraine joins EU or NATO with Putin still in power. I don't think NATO wants the RISK, because of article...5?- you know, the "if you fuck with one of us, you fuck with all of us" clause.

You may be right, but the flipside is what kind of threat is Russia after they show their whole ass, get it blown to pieces, and have an economy in shambles unable to rebuild a military?

EDIT: I'll admit, the above does put the cart a bit before the horse but things are not looking great for Vlad, particularly today.

EDIT 2: I mean look at this shit:

God-tier trolling / psyops

[cdm]

You may be right, but the flipside is what kind of threat is Russia after they show their whole ass, get it blown to pieces, and have an economy in shambles unable to rebuild a military?

EDIT: I'll admit, the above does put the cart a bit before the horse but things are not looking great for Vlad, particularly today.

Sharing this perspective

and quoting myself basically because it's telling me to pipe down. Which is fair.

[Exocet]

Certain Crimea will never return to Ukraine doubtful the Ukrainians even want it back, it was a huge mistake not allowing a referendum in the 1990s on it rejoining Russia , destabilized split and held back the country, it would be like Lithuania absorbing Kaliningrad.
Its overwhelmingly pro Russian only became part of Ukraine as a colonizing strategy by Soviets and never made much sense.
what on earth he is doing in Kharkiv (which is massive) and mainly Russian speaking makes no sense, I just saw a video the aftermath of a missile bombardment and it looked like fucking Stalingrad. This is how the mad old tyrant cunt is trying to win support.

I'm worried Russia will take Odessa ( beautiful former centre of Jewish world) very soon and block the entire black sea off. I have suspected Russia is only really is interested in land east of the dnieper river anyway.

[mfte]

It is my understanding that Crimea is essentially a barren wasteland, propped up by a steady water supply flowing from up north. Ukraine cut off this water flow after the annexation and Crimea's fresh water reserves have been dwindling ever since. Without control of specific parts of Ukraine, Crimea becomes nearly useless.

[allegro]

It is my understanding that Crimea is essentially a barren wasteland, propped up by a steady water supply flowing from up north. Ukraine cut off this water flow after the annexation and Crimea's fresh water reserves have been dwindling ever since. Without control of specific parts of Ukraine, Crimea becomes nearly useless.

Russia wants the entire coastline, for Russia’s access to the sea:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ines-next-week

[MrLobster]

[fillow]

I find this analysis very interesting. Some of it certainly rings true, even if none of this (re: resources) has been said aloud by either side

[cdm]

There's your no-fly zone.

EDIT: “not so fast” -US

[burnmotherfucker!]

Well, the U.S. just cut off Russian oil imports.

[allegate]

[elevenism]

So
"we should all be on the lookout for Russia to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them." -@PressSec

Before this, a US State Dept Official was testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee, and was asked about Russia and China accusing the US of having/funding bioweapons facilities in Ukraine, by Marco Rubio, who SEEMED to be expecting "oh, no, that's bullshit."
INSTEAD, State Dept official said something like "ummm, welll, yeah, they're RESEARCH facilities, but there IS a concern that Russia will take them over."

THEN, we got the above statement by Psaki.

SO. Russia, AND the west, are likely to bring up the good ole' WMD argument.

I didn't like Biden a whole HELL of a lot until now. I think he's doing a GREAT job at, you know, NOT creating a no fly zone (aka WW3) even as most Americans want it. I don't think people really understand what they're asking for.

But this ain't good. The chemical weapon bit...it's REALLY not good, whatever the truth is.

Edit: also, i'm gonna say this AGAIN, as I've been using 98% of my free time (and 99% of my time is free), following this shit from all angles:

It's HARD to tell what's really going on. It isn't just Russia using propaganda. I mean, fuck Russia, of course. But there's propaganda coming from every direction.
This is war.

[allegate]

[elevenism]

To be fair, I happened to see Marco Rubio questioning the Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, on C-Span, via youtube.
(I'm not sure if that's the original clip, and forgive me if it has any spin).

B. To me, three countries have agendas and vested interests, here. Is Russia the worst offender?
Yes, generally.
But that doesn't mean there aren't half truths and propaganda coming from Ukraine and the US.
I'm just being realistic.

I learned PRETTY damn quickly not to trust even THIS country when it comes to war rhetoric and coverage and such.

[cdm]

To me, Rubio's lack of "gotcha" follow-up is most telling here. They'd love to pin something like that on a Democratic admin. Biolab can mean a lot of things and most explanations are not nefarious. Unless more specific info comes out it seems like hullabaloo over nothing.

[elevenism]

Oh. Well, fuck. This isn't good.



They've also got that WNBA star, US Olympic Gold Medalist (they don't likey that), and lesbian (they REALLY don't like that part), Brittany... Griner, I think?
They're holding her in Russia for what was PROBABLY some CBD oil.

And then there are other two poor bastards being held there from the US: their names escape me, but one of them ostensibly has tuberculosis and isnt being treated.

[elevenism]

To me, Rubio's lack of "gotcha" follow-up is most telling here. They'd love to pin something like that on a Democratic admin. Biolab can mean a lot of things and most explanations are not nefarious. Unless more specific info comes out it seems like hullabaloo over nothing.

see I felt like it was the other way round, honestly.

I thought Rubio was expecting her to say "no."
I felt like he wanted to QUELL such rumors.

And his follow up question WASN'T about pinning things on anyone but Russia.

[cdm]

I don't know shit about shit regarding this whole biolab thing but Tulsi is going hard on the story and her reputation speaks for itself. Aside: apparently this "regime change war" is one she can get behind.

Edit:

[allegate]

[elevenism]

ANNNNNNNNND:

Tucker Carlson/Fox News is being used by Russian State TV as Pro Russian Propaganda

also, this is fucking great, and shows a bit of America's Own Newsboy's disturbing pro Putin bullshit.
(also, subscribe to Brian Tyler Cohen)

[Erneuert]

Putin comparing the way the West is treating Russia akin to how Germany treated the Jews. Give me a break.

[Erneuert]

LOL. Can I flip the NIN logo sideways and use it for my band?

Logo of Russian fast-food chain touted to replace McDonald's looks familiar

https://www.9news.com.au/world/russi...?app=applenews

[MrLobster]